As Useful Distraction

How accurate is the statement that history doesn’t repeat itself but instead, it rhymes?  Becuase haven’t we seen this distraction before, in 2011? Days before the United States led a team of coalition troops into Iran and killed Osama Bin Laden.

With today’s headlines and the number one Google Trend being the engagement of Meghan Markle and Prince Harry of Wales, my senses are raised.

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Questions have been swirling around as to why Prince Harry would marry a divorcee, clearly, the Star* (my opinion) of the hit the USA- television show Suits, would not be a proper match for a Prince, right?

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Wrong! Because just like George W. Bush, who was led into the White House swinging by Papi’s (George H.W. Bush) left hand and Dick Chaney’s right side, so too is this marriage, a clear diversion.

That being, my bullshit reader tells me the timing of this engagement is somewhat on cue to distract people away from the quagmire that has become the Brexit negotiations.

The Independent’s Ms. Rachael Revesz writes today in an article entitled, ‘Brexit is UK’s Vietnam as’ no one wants to say it’s not going well,’ says LSE Professor,’ Conor Gearty.

Mr. Gearty writes in an LSE blog post, Happy Brexit? ,

“Brexit strikes me as our Vietnam. Everybody rational knows it is – how can I put it politely? – not going well. But no one with authority seems able to say so.”

Perhaps you have been well initiated in the depths of insanity that the Vietnam War escalated to, thanks in part to Ken Burns’ recent Vietnam Documentary. Or maybe you haven’t, if not check it out here The Vietnam War it’s worth an afternoon.

In the documentary series, President Lydon B. Johnson describes his sleepless night thinking about what he is leading the United States into. He says,

“What the hell is Vietnam worth to me? … What is it worth to this country? … It’s damn easy to get in a war, but it’s going to be awfully hard to ever extricate yourself if you get in.”

This is how Mr. Gearty and those fearful of the significant transfer of power being given to the executive branch, must be feeling. We’re in too deep, they say! Now, the Government can adopt and disband EU laws without a required vote from the Parliament after the Brexit. This know as the Henery VII clause.

Sounds like W, ” Either you’re with us, or you’re with the terrorist.”

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Regardless, of the mounting contentment for those in the executive branch are becoming, Queen Elizabeth, reigning over the kingdom since 1951, has undoubtedly a thing or two up her stockings to distract the proletariat from the goings on in the Parliament.

Alas, an engagement!

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To Prince Harry of Wales, no less. A member of the royal family never to have a bloody hell’s shot at the throne. Who in most recent times was caught buggering about in Nazi costumes and even pictured wearing nothing at all. Presumably, both incidents from all-night benders that leave someone’s judgment a bit frayed and one’s mind certainly not on the ramifications of the public image of the Royal Throne.

That being said, I’d say Prince Harry owes Queen Elizabeth a favor. Bite the bullet Prince Harry and marry the “tainted” TV star. You’ll join the other member of the royal family that married a woman once already married. Oh yea, he liked Nazi’s too.

Prinz Harrys Urgroßonkel Herzog von Windsor traf Hitler

“Prince William / Harry ain’t do it right. If I was him, I’d Mary-Kate and Ashley.”  – K.W.

 

-R.W.N II

 

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Prepare for the Weirdness

“Something is happening here,
But you don’t know what it is,
Do you, Mr. Jones?”
— Bob Dylan

No sir, not a chance. Mr. Jones does not even pretend to know what’s happening in America right now, and neither does anyone else.

Across the wire, this morning BTC/USD hits a record high of $9,200. “This is up 200% since Jamie Dimon’s, JP Morgan Chase CEO, fraud call.” -Mr. White Bonanza: Bitcoin Hits $9,200, Up 200% Since Jamie Dimon ‘Fraud’ Call .

In September, Mr. Dimon stated J.P. Morgan’s stance on Bitcoin to CNBC at the 2017 Delivering Alpha conference in New York.

JP Morgan ChaseChairman and CEO Jamie Dimon said bitcoin is a “fraud” that “won’t end well.” Dimon added Friday that if people are “stupid enough to buy” bitcoin, they will pay the price for it.

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After this statement JP Morgan Chase announced it would launch a blockchain-based system, aiming to “significantly reduce” the number of parties needed to verify global payments, ultimately cutting the transaction times.

A visible sign that the big banks want to develop ways to cut market share from VISA and Mastercard. Whom, have dominated the transaction business since the late 1980s.

The whole debate revolves around three main threads, according to one of  The Economist’s bloggers, Buttonwood’s notebook. 

(1) The limited nature of supply {new coins can only be created through complex calculations, and the total is limited to 21 million}. The limited supply figure is embedded in the estimates inherent to the Bitcoin system.

(2) fears about the long-term value of the fiat currencies in an era of Quantitative easing;

(3) The appeal of anonymity. This being the major draw for criminals and those wishing to keep off the radar. Albeit, this being even more true of cash.

The Buttonwood notebook next leads the reader to the valuation methodology of an order of magnitude “the fundamental long-term” BTC/USD exchange rate. Which I found fascinating.

If we assume Bitcoin is a currency (i.e., a unit of account, a store of value), then it will need to adhere to the ‘quantity theory equation of money’.

Where: MV=PT ( the real money supply is multiplied by its velocity) = (the price level is multiped by the transaction volume).

M= the Bitcoin money supply, which we already know to be 21 million.

V= the velocity of the base money. Is usually considering to be 10x

P= the Bitcoin value of a dollar (i.e., 1/the dollar value of a Bitcoin)

T= US dollar volume of transactions that could be reasonably be carried out by Bitcoin.

Therefore, rearranging the equation to solve for P, the “long-term fundamental magnitude value” of BTC/USD is the long-term value of transactions that will be carried out by Bitcoin] / 21 million (total supply).

For the numerator, we will use a proxy provided by the United Nations’ Global Financial Integrity report, ‘ Transnational Crime and the Developing World’ GFI: Transnational Crime and the Developing World  figure on the total value of the global illicit drug market as the long-term value transactions that could be carried out by Bitcoin.

GFI

In the GFI report, they cite the global illicit drug market being as large as $652 billion (USD) and at least being $426 billion (USD). By taking the mean of the two figures we find a reasonable market total of $539 billion (USD).

In sum, multiplying total supply of Bitcoins by 21 million by its velocity (21,000,000 *10= 210 million.  [ $539 billion / 210 million] = $2,566.67 FMV for. the BTC/USD exhcnage rate.

With Bitcoin now reaching far past that level, Spot price currently being that of $9,160.00. Bitcoin now trading at a 28% premium to FMV. $BTC:USD

Ho ho, so watch your six if you’re in the arena. And in closing take it from Mr. Hunter S. Thompson, Prepare for the Weirdness.

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-R.W.N II

Bezos ‘The Illest Mother F*cker Alive’

 

Location. Van Horn, Texas.

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Local area police reports indicate excessively loud music playing of the hip-hop genre variation. This area of the country being predominate of the Christian denomination, you, as well as I, can understand the neighbors’ concern when a more detailed police report indicated that the now 100 Billion dollar man Jeff Bezos had Kanye West’s ‘Illiest Mother F*kin Alive’ on constant repeat across his sprawling 30,000-acre compound.

We’re still confirming our sources on the tip provided above, but according to the more credible source of Mr. Tom Metcalf, of Bloomberg, he reported on Friday the details of Mr. Benzos’s accomplishment.

“The $100 Billion milestone makes Bezos, 53, the first billionaire to build a 12-figure new worth since 1999 when Microsoft Corp. co-founder Bill Gates hit the mark.”

Being the only person to reach the 100 Billion dollar mark is notable because most if not all of the companies that were formed and closed during the Dotcom bubble have now found a reassurance under the Amazon umbrella. A Mr. Mark Cuban said in a recent RealVision interview with the 中國逆勢而上 (Chinese contain) Kyle Bass,

“Young people are making a lot of money just following the major Trends on Amazon and Buying / Selling items based on the predominant trend.”

It all seems too easy. Why wouldn’t everyone just open up shop, Buy and Sell the hot items on Amazon.com during the day and with the premium collected reinvest it all in $XIV (VelocityShares Daily Inverse VIXShort Term ETN) and $VXX (iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN) to make it a party!

Mr. Tom Metcalf continues by adding,

“The online retailer’s shares jumped more than 2 percent on optimism for Black Friday sales.Online purchases for the day are up 18.4 percent over last year, according to data from Adobe Analytics… “

$AMZN shares are up 5.96% since September 2017.

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Coming after Goldman Sachs’ infamous FAAMG’ piece back in June 2017. This article was when Goldman came out and questioned whether the top five companies, with a combined $660 billion market value added this year, was overdone?

Bob Boroujerdi said this,

“We believe low realized volatility can potentially lead people to underestimate the risks inherent in these businesses including cyclical exposure, potential regulations regarding online activity or antitrust concerns or disruption risk as they encroach into each other’s businesses,”

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Well, that’s great Bob then why did Goldman get caught buying up all the “overpriced” shares soon after?

Because Jeff Bezos is the ‘Illest Mother F*cker Alive.’ That’s why.

With all that said, I now rest on the Billion-Dollar man to downshift all the publicity that comes with making it to the 100 Billion Dollar club and put all that money to use.

Mr. Metcalf writes,

“Bezos is only just starting to focus on philanthropy and in June tweeted a request for ideas on how to help people.”

And to that Mr. Bezos, I say, Figure it out yourself! Must you crowdsource everything! I’m too busy buying obscure book titles from your website to help you figure out how to save the world.

I digress to close, as did Mr. Bezos when the police asked him after the Thanksgiving incident at his home in Van Horn, Texas. Officer Raoul Duke asks, “How do you say broke in Spanish,” Mr. Bezos? His reply, “¡Me no halbo!

 

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Kanye West- Illest Mother F*cker Alive