The Grains Complex: II,I

 

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Outside Markets

Today is April 20th,2018 and on this day in 1975 Saigon fell to communists forces.

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Today we’ve important economic prints today, Personal Income and Expenditures for March. The last print in February showed incomes rose 0.4% and spending rose 0.2% and are expected to be both +0.4% today. Also within the report is the PCE Price Index, which rose 1.8% YoY last month and is expected to be +2.0% and in so doing finally reaching the Fed’s hoped-for 2% inflation rate.

Stocks were higher this morning, with 150 pts on /YM and 12.5 handles on /ES.  Reason being, inflation is subdued in both Germany and the U.S. German retail sales and CPI missed by large sums; the month-over-month was negative for retail sales. CPI missing on month year-over-year expectations and month-over-month expectations. Thus, weaker inflation coming out of Germany, the E.U.’s largest economy.

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Turning to the U.S., the Fed’s favorite measure of inflation, the PCE deflator, both YoY and MoM matched expectations so there is no extra pressure on the Fed to raise rates. The 10-year yield was a little higher before the U.S. number and then went to unchanged after the print.

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Domestically we also had Mcdonalds Corporation beat their earnings expectations, both on Revenue and EPS.

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Along with two M&A deals, Sainsbury PLC from the U.K.  buying Asda from Wal-Mart in a $10.1(headline)($7.3billion, being the reported number) billion dollar deal.

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Deutsche Telekom offering Sprint a bid for a takeover at $7.5 billion, all of which helping support equity markets earlier in the trading session.

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I’m watching Crude Oil prices today, trading lower overnight and into the morning, however, MoM prices have firmed. This would be the second month in a row, the eighth month out of ten that Crude Oil has been higher. The Iran Nuclear Deal could be withdrawn and combined with the seasonality, has placed a continuous bid for Crude Oil.

To note the economic news of last Friday; the Commerce Department reported that gross domestic grew at a 2/3% annualized rate in the first quarter of 2018. Expectations from the Street were expecting an increase of 2.0%, along with consumer spending has risen 1.1%.

Moreover, the Labor Department reported that its employment cost index rose 0.8% in the first quarter and 2.7 % YoY, both being marginally higher than had been forecasted. Lastly, the University of Michigan reported that its index of consumer sentiment fell from 101.4 in March to 98.8 in April, a marginally beat than that had been expected.

Additionally, the Chicago Purchasing Manager’s report for April will be out at 9:45am. It printed 57 last month and is expected to be unchanged. Highlighting the fact that this index peaked several months ago into last year at 68.

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Pending Home Sales for March out at 10:00am. Noting that it rose just over 3% the month previous, pending sales are expected to be higher but no surprised if a softer 1.0% rise.

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Lastly, the Dallas Fed will release its General Activity Index for April. It was 21.3 last month, having peaked two months ago at 37. Expected to be lower this month figures being as low as 18.

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Corn

Corn futures are trading 2 to 3 cents higher this morning. They ended the Friday session with most contracts 2 to 3 1/2 cents lower. Nearby May was 3.45% higher on the week. Friday afternoon’s CFTC Commitment of Traders report indicated that spec traders subtracted 15,367 contracts from their net long position in corn futures and options. Their net position as of Tuesday stood at 122,877 contracts. China sold another 2.448 MMT of corn from state reserves on Friday, totaling 62.06% of the offered amount. Stats Canada’s report indicated 2018 Canadian corn intentions of 3.758 million acres, 5% larger than last year and above most estimates. Argentina’s corn harvest was 30.9% complete on April 25 according to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, ahead of the 27.2% average. There were 10 contracts put out for delivery against May futures over the weekend by Rand and stopped by FCS and ADMIS customers.

Corn futures are showing 2 to 4 3/4 cent gains at midday. This morning’s Export Inspections report indicated 1.465 MMT of corn was shipped for the week of 4/26. That was down 15.7% from a week ago but was 29.55% larger than this week last year.

Corn futures closed the day higher with solid demand supporting these higher prices. Large non-commercial and speculative buyers stepping into the market thinking a stronger market is on the horizon. Planting season is here and a weather market correlates to higher volatility near term.

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Soybeans

Soybean futures are currently 5 to 7 cents higher after seeing gains of 13 to 17 cents in most front months on Friday. Soy meal led the way, up $14/ton, with front-month soy oil down 38 points. May meal tested the $400 mark overnight before backing off. Managed money in soybean futures and options trimmed their net long position by 22,874 contracts to 170,094 contracts in the week that ended 4/24. Canola acreage in Canada is seen at 21.383 million acres in 2018, a 7% drop from a year ago and well below most expectations. Stats Canada soybean intentions were 6.452 million acres, down 11.41% from 2017. BAGE estimates that the Argentine soybean crop is 54% harvested, compared to the average of 43.4%. Expectations are for soybean progress to show 4-5% of the crop planted. There were 415 deliveries vs. May soybean futures on FND, with a commercial house the main issuer and a Wells Fargo client the main stopper.

Soybean futures are currently mixed on Monday, with front months 1 to 2 1/4 cents lower. Soy meal is up $2.70/ton, with front-month soy oil 2 points in the green. The USDA reported a private export sale of 120,000 MT of soybeans for 18/19 to Argentina this morning. Soybean export inspections during the week of 4/26 totaled 679,379 MT. That was 43.83% larger than the week prior and 22.53% above the same week last year.

Soybeans closed the day lower; the technicals struggled to keep prices moving higher. This in spite of the funds getting longer on a net basis last week and the fundamental driving news regarding the weather in South America, cutting their crop back which should bolster our Soybean markets higher. Exports remain strong despite the stronger dollar as of late.

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Today’s trading into close showed some heavy selling.

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Wheat

Wheat futures are mostly 3 to 6 cents higher this morning, with the May CBT contract the outlier with a +9 performance. They posted 9 to 14 3/4 cent gains in the CBT and KC contracts on Friday. MPLS was up 3 to 6 3/4 cents despite the Stats Canada report. Front-month SRW was 6.96% higher on the week, with nearby HRW up 6.11%. All wheat seedings in Canada are seen at 25.259 million acres according to Stats Canada. That is well above most estimates and 12.8% larger than last year, as a 15.44% jump was seen for spring wheat acreage. Spec funds in Chicago wheat futures and options added 4,575 contracts to their net short position of 54,713 contracts. In the week that ended Tuesday, they increased their net long position in KC wheat futures and options to 40,698 contracts. Algeria purchased 420,000 MT of optional origin wheat on Friday, with sources expecting most or all will come from France.

Wheat futures are trading 15 to 16 1/2 cents higher in the CBT and MPLS contracts at midday. KC is up 9 to 10 cents The USDA reported that 376,256 MT of wheat was inspected for export in the week that ended 4/26. That was down 41.57% from last week and 36.21% lower than this week in 2017. We’re clearly not trading exports! Analysts are expecting to see 13-15% of the spring wheat crop planted as of Sunday.

Wheat futures closed the day higher, with solid buying on momentum, commercials and non-commercials are present in the market, a catalyst to propel prices higher. Participants are watching for the numbers coming from the Winter Wheat Crop. A good print could give a boost to the entire grain complex.

Market pundits discussed whether traditional indicators that forecast futures trends in the markets are working as compared to in the past. For example, despite the U.S. Dollar index hitting 92.00 today, grains continue their march higher. This brings up an introspective questioning of our views on the current market.

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Cattle

Live cattle futures ended the Friday session with most nearby contracts $1 to $2.65 higher. April gained 4.27% on the week to keep up with the higher cash trade, with June up 3.16%. Feeder cattle futures were up a quarter to $1.75. The CME feeder cattle index was up 50 cents on April 26 at $139.99. Wholesale boxed beef values were mixed on Friday afternoon. Choice boxes were up $1.59 at $221.74, with Select boxes 16 cents lower at $204.32. Estimated weekly FI cattle slaughter through Saturday is 624,000 head. That is 1,000 head below the previous week and down 7,000 head from the same week in 2017. Cash trade was late to develop this week, but sales of $124 were shown in the South, with at least a few at $126 in the North. As of Tuesday, managed money in live cattle futures and options held a net long position of just 15,391 contracts. That is their least bullish position since mid-February 2016.

Live cattle futures are mostly 80 cents to $1.05 lower on Monday, with April a nickel higher ahead of today’s expiration. Feeder cattle futures are 95 cents to $1.55 lower at midday. The CME feeder cattle index was up 50 cents on April 26 at $139.99. Wholesale boxed beef values were higher on Monday morning. Choice boxes were up $2.76 at $224.50, with Select boxes 88 cents lower at $204.20. Estimated weekly FI cattle slaughter last week was 624,000 head, down 7,000 head from the same week in 2017. Cash trade was late to develop, but sales of $124 were shown in the South, with at least a few at $126 in the North.

Live Cattle (LE) traded as a mixed bag today, trading higher early in the session which triggered selling and reviealed a near-term cap on the market. News out of the European Union today, indicating that they may let in more of the beef from the U.S., which is great news for relieving a surplus supply in domestic beef pipelines.

Feeder Cattle trading this session was also choppy. All reports indicate that beef demand is improving but prices are kept down from non-commercial selling, from whom are liquidated their long positions. Despite their selling, both Feeders and Live Cattle futures are up MoM, latter being lesser than the former.

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Lean Hogs

Lean hog futures finished last week with losses of 35 cents to $1.375 on Friday. Nearby May was down 5.5% on the week. The CME Lean Hog Index was up 79 cents from the previous day to $61.23 on April 25. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was up 76 cents at $68.61 this afternoon, with the picnic the only cut reported lower. The national base hog weighted average price was 11 cents lower at $58.22. The USDA estimated FI weekly hog slaughter at 2.363 million head through Saturday. That is 73,000 head below last week on lighter Saturday slaughter ideas but still 74,000 head above this week last year.

Lean hog futures are trading 10 to 52.5 cents higher in the nearby contracts on Monday. The CME Lean Hog Index was up 52 cents from the previous day to $61.75 on April 26. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was up 13 cents at $68.74 this morning. The national base hog weighted average price was 7 cents higher at $58.28.

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Cotton

Cotton futures are trading steady to 8 points higher after settling 19 to 44 points higher on Friday. CFTC data on Friday showed the large spec funds in cotton futures and options adding 2,760 contracts to their net long position on 4/24. Their net position was at 82,871 contracts on that date. Total export commitments for upland cotton are now 18.4% larger than last year. They are well above the normal pace of 95% complete to meet the USDA export estimate at 112% complete. The Cotlook A index was up 2.50 cents from the previous day on April 26 to 93.20 cents/lb. The Adjusted World Price was updated to 74.25 cents/lb this morning, 9 points above the previous week.

Cotton futures are mostly 43 to 74 points lower on Monday. CFTC data on Friday showed the large spec funds in cotton futures and options adding 2,760 contracts to their net long position on 4/24. Their net position was at 82,871 contracts on that date. The Cotlook A index was up 25 points from the previous day on April 27 to 93.45 cents/lb. The Adjusted World Price was updated to 74.25 cents/lb this morning, 9 points above the previous week.

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Source:

Brugler Marketing & Management, LLC

NOAA

CME Group 

ISM Chicago 

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas 

McDonalds Corporation Investor Relations 

Sainsbury PLC Investor Relations 

Deutsche Telekom Investor Relations 

TopDownCharts

 

-R.W.N II

 

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The Grains Complex IIII

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Corn

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The National Index continues to push higher, with $4.00 being the next test in price resistance in the near term. Prices can continue to rally with an overflow buying from the Wheat market.

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Corn futures closed the Friday session with most contracts 2 to 3 1/2 cents lower. Nearby May was 3.45% higher on the week. This afternoon’s CFTC Commitment of Traders report indicated that spec traders subtracted 15,367 contracts from their net long position in corn futures and options. Their net position as of Tuesday stood at 122,877 contracts. China sold another 2.448 MMT of corn from state reserves on Friday, totaling 62.06% of the offered amount. This morning’s Stats Canada report indicated 2018 Canadian corn intentions of 3.758 million acres, 5% larger than last year and above most estimates. Argentina’s corn harvest was estimated at 30.9% complete on April 25 according to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, ahead of the 27.2% average.

May 18 Corn closed at $3.89 1/2, up 3 1/2 cents,
Jul 18 Corn closed at $3.98 1/2, up 3 1/4 cents,
Sep 18 Corn closed at $4.05 1/2, up 3 1/4 cents
Dec 18 Corn closed at $4.14 1/2, up 3 1/4 cents

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 Soybeans (ZS)

Contract Size: 5,000 bushels

Tick Size: 0.0025

Dollar Value/ Tick: $12.50

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Soybeans surged on Friday. The current futures spread between various Soy products indicate that the long-term bullish sentiment is here and entrenched. 1068 now looks to be the next high to beat in the next leg higher in price. The price targets were reached early in the week testing the lows of 1030 from the beginning of the month which gave the soy market a green light higher. The market also in a weather market now and continued arid climate in Argentina supports higher prices. However, the risk is in whether the bumper crop from Brazil could push prices lower with more supply and the seasonal improvement in weather domestically. Additionally, exports from the United States is rising but canceled out by the stronger dollar.

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Soybean futures saw gains of 13 to 17 cents in most front months on Friday. Soy meal led the way, up $14/ton, with front-month soy oil down 38 points. Managed money in soybean futures and options trimmed their net long position by 22,874 contracts to 170,094 contracts in the week that ended 4/24. Canola acreage in Canada is seen at 21.383 million acres in 2018, a 7% drop from a year ago and well below most expectations. Stats Canada soybean acreage intentions were reported at 6.452 million acres, down 11.41% from 2017. BAGE estimates that the Argentine soybean crop is 54% harvested, compared to the average of 43.4%. Recent production estimates have been around 38 MMT, with crushers drawing down stocks and importing soybeans in an attempt to maintain soybean meal exports at typical May levels.

May 18 Soybeans closed at $10.45, up 17 cents,
Jul 18 Soybeans closed at $10.56 1/4, up 16 3/4 cents,
Aug 18 Soybeans closed at $10.58, up 16 1/2 cents,
Nov 18 Soybeans closed at $10.47, up 13 3/4 cents,
May 18 Soybean Meal closed at $393.20, up $14.00,
May 18 Soybean Oil closed at $30.43, down $0.38

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Wheat

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Wheat futures posted 9 to 14 3/4 cent gains in the CBT and KC contracts on Friday. MPLS was up 3 to 6 3/4 cents despite this morning’s Stats Canada report. Front-month SRW was 6.96% higher on the week, with nearby HRW up 6.11%. Spec funds in Chicago wheat futures and options added 4,575 contracts to their net short position of 54,713 contracts. In the week that ended Tuesday, they increased their net long position in KC wheat futures and options to 40,698 contracts. All wheat seedings in Canada are seen at 25.259 million acres according to Stats Canada. That is well above most estimates and 12.8% larger than last year, as a 15.44% jump was seen for spring wheat acreage. Algeria purchased 420,000 MT of optional origin wheat on Friday, with sources expecting most or all will come from France.

May 18 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.95 1/2, up 14 3/4 cents,
May 18 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.12 1/4, up 10 1/2 cents,
May 18 MGEX Wheat closed at $6.06 1/4, up 6 3/4 cents

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Cattle

(LE)

Contract Size: 40,000 lbs (18 metric tons)

Tick Size: 0.000025

Dollar Value/ Tick : $10.00

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Live Cattle was holding steady and firmed into the close on Friday. The monthly range in price is a sign of consolidation around the 110 level where we saw a gap down in price at the beginning of April. The cattle markets are still looking for a catalyst from news relating to new tariffs to come out of the politically charged atmosphere.

Exports of live cattle have slowed given the solid strength was seen in the dollar most recently. Moreover, the continuous rise in interest could also skew risk in commodities as a whole to the downside. That being said, internationally, consumer demand for the beef hasn’t waned despite the slow in imports.

Moving to Feeder Cattle, which ended Friday strong throughout the trading session. The decline in the supplies has unpinned this steady market. Perhaps, if the price of 149.00 is broken and holds to the upside a breakout in feeder is probable. Exports have risen as of late, but domestic consumption has slowed, contributed to the colder weather experienced in the Northeast and Mid-West.

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Live cattle futures ended the Friday session with most nearby contracts $1 to $2.65 higher. April gained 4.27% on the week to keep up with the higher cash trade, with June up 3.16%. Feeder cattle futures were up a quarter to $1.75. The CME feeder cattle index was up 50 cents on April 26 at $139.99. Wholesale boxed beef values were mixed on Friday afternoon. Choice boxes were up $1.59 at $221.74, with Select boxes 16 cents lower at $204.32. Estimated weekly FI cattle slaughter through Saturday is 624,000 head. That is 1,000 head below the previous week and down 7,000 head from the same week in 2017. Cash trade was late to develop this week, but sales of $124 were shown in the South, with $126 in the North. As of Tuesday, managed money in live cattle futures and options held a net long position of just 15,391 contracts. That is their least bullish position since mid-February 2016.

Apr 18 Cattle closed at $124.450, up $1.925,
Jun 18 Cattle closed at $107.000, up $2.650,
Aug 18 Cattle closed at $105.975, up $1.950,
May 18 Feeder Cattle closed at $142.025, up $1.725
Aug 18 Feeder Cattle closed at $148.250, up $1.750
Sep 18 Feeder Cattle closed at $148.350, up $1.100

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Lean Hogs

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Lean hog futures finished the week with losses of 35 cents to $1.375. Nearby May was down 5.5% on the week. The CME Lean Hog Index was up 79 cents from the previous day to $61.23 on April 25. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was up 76 cents at $68.61 this afternoon, with the picnic the only cut reported lower. The national base hog weighted average price was 11 cents lower at $58.22. The USDA estimated FI weekly hog slaughter at 2.363 million head through Saturday. That is 73,000 head below last week on lighter Saturday slaughter ideas but still 74,000 head above this week last year.

May 18 Hogs closed at $66.100, down $1.225,
Jun 18 Hogs closed at $72.625, down $1.375
Jul 18 Hogs closed at $76.225, down $1.075

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Cotton

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Cotton futures settled the day with most contracts 19 to 44 points higher. CFTC data on Friday showed the large spec funds in cotton futures and options adding 2,760 contracts to their net long position on 4/24. Their net position was at 82,871 contracts on that date. Total export commitments for upland cotton are now 18.4% larger than last year. They are well above the normal pace of 95% complete to meet the USDA export estimate at 112% complete. The Cotlook A index was up 2.50 cents from the previous day on April 26 to 93.20 cents/lb. The Adjusted World Price was updated to 74.25 cents/lb this morning, 9 points above the previous week.

May 18 Cotton closed at 85.330, up 34 points,
Jul 18 Cotton closed at 84.510, up 34 points
Oct 18 Cotton closed at 80.860, up 44 points

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Source:

Brugler Marketing & Management, LLC

FINVIZ

Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago 

Futuresmag.com 

CME Group 

CFTC

-R.W.N II

The Grains Complex III

Day three, tonight the Pittsburgh Penguins came out on top in the first game of the series between the Washington Capitals. Sidney Crosby and Alexander Ovechkin had tallies in a high energy game filled with many chances at Net.

With that said, I’ll turn to the futures market.

Metals

Cooper futures little changed on the day, down 37 bps (-0.50%). Most certainly forming a base. Trading in a sideways, down trending channel for trend duration. That being said, overnight action in copper has formed a base around a few key moving averages (8EMA, 21EMA, 50EMA). These moving averages are moving sideways, thus not giving a boost to Cooper from a technical perspective. The first step for a potential rally would be to see price action forming above the moving averages.

On the fundamental side, news that China is willing to cut tariffs on U.S made automobiles from the current 25% to 15% (possibly 10%), which is a complete one eighty from the original knee-jerk proposal of an additional 25%. Auto stocks responded in turn. Granted there isn’t much Copper in U.S. made cars but what this news does do is push back on the Trade War narrative in terms of global demand shrinking and subsequently Copper demand out of China.

Moving onto the dollar, being down yesterday, resumed its strength to the upside. Having now been up 7 out of the last trading sessions. All else equal, the inverse relationship would have driven copper lower, however, as noted above, Copper has been up four days and down four days resulting in a base being formed.

Bottom line:

Watching Chinese demand for Copper and parsing the economic data for clues of a slowdown in the Chinese economy for a directional view on Copper to the upside or downside.

Grains

Corn market traded both sides of unchanged in the trading session today. Earlier this week there was some negative news on Ethanal production and export sales, but the market only $0.05 away from its recent highs in new crop contracts. Weather across the Corn belt has improved this week and dry for the next few days, thus the planting pace should pick-up.

Late next week, heavy rains will impact the eastern part of the Corn belt but for now the planting pace should improve. We’ll see the results in Monday’s Crop Progress Report from the USDA.

Other than weather being a major factor, there are ancillary issues such as, the RFS. The lobbying battle going on between big oil interests and the ethanol lobby. Additionally, issue on whether or not NAFTA negations will be successful. Lastly, what the Chinese will do in regards to the tariffs on soybeans, which would have an impact on the corn market down the road if followed through on. All of these could result in some volatility within the grains space over the short-term in conjunction with headline risk always present.

Corn

Corn futures saw fractional to penny losses in most contracts on Thursday. The USDA reported a private export sale of 107,600 MT of corn for 17/18 delivery to unknown destinations this morning. The Export Sales report, however, indicated that just 697,073 MT of old crop corn was sold during the week of 4/19, shy of expectations. That was 7.84% lower than this time last year and down 36.15% from a week ago. New crop had a net reduction of 76,592 MT.

Weekly shipments were tallied at 1.701 MMT, 20.78% larger than the same week in 2017. China sold another 2.681 MMT of corn from state reserves, totaling 89.87% of the offered amount. The International Grains Council added 2 MMT to their 18/19 world corn production estimate at 1.054 BMT. Their ending stocks projection was trimmed 3 MMT on larger consumption to 262 MMT.

May 18 Corn closed at $3.86, down 1/2 cent,

Jul 18 Corn closed at $3.95 1/4, down 1/2 cent,

Sep 18 Corn closed at $4.02 1/4, down 3/4 cent

Dec 18 Corn closed at $4.11 1/4, down 1 cent

Soybeans

Soybean futures were unable to hold gains from earlier in the day, with nearby contracts steady to 1/2 cent higher and back months lower. Soy meal was up $3.00/ton, with front month soy oil 2 points in the green. This morning’s USDA Export Sales report showed just 371,303 MT of old crop soybean sales in the week that ended 4/19, short of analysts’ expectations. That was well below the previous week, but nearly 174.6% larger than this week in 2017. Net reductions of 9,800 MT were reported for China, as their buying typically switches to South American at this point in the year. New crop sales were also shy of estimates at 166,500 MT. Soybean exports for that week totaled 446,058 MT, a jump of 10.9% from the week prior and 25.6% larger than last year. Sales of soy meal totaled 264,501 MT, as soy oil was reported at 11,237 MT. The IGC expects 18/19 world soybean production to total 355 MMT, with ending stocks up 1 MMT to 40 MMT.

May 18 Soybeans closed at $10.28, up 1/2 cent,

Jul 18 Soybeans closed at $10.39 1/2, up 1/4 cent,

Aug 18 Soybeans closed at $10.41 1/2, unch,

Nov 18 Soybeans closed at $10.33 1/4, down 1 1/2 cents,

May 18 Soybean Meal closed at $379.20, up $3.00,

May 18 Soybean Oil closed at $30.81, up $0.02

Wheat

Wheat futures closed the Thursday session with losses of 5 to 9 1/2 cents in the CBT and KC winter wheat contracts. MPLS was steady to 4 cents lower. All wheat export sales of old crop were 297,203 MT this morning, outpacing most estimates. That was much better than last week’s net reduction and 4.8 times as large as the sales total for this week last year. New crop sales were a MY high of 280,701 MT, within the range of expectations. Shipments of wheat were at a 29 week high 588,388 MT, but down 4% from this time a year ago. The IGC trimmed their 18/19 world wheat production estimate 2 MMT to 739 MMT. World ending stocks were increased 4 MMT to 257 MMT on larger 17/18 carryover.

May 18 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.80 3/4, down 5 1/2 cents,

May 18 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.01 3/4, down 5 1/4 cents,

May 18 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.99 1/2, unch,

Cattle

Live cattle futures ended the day with most contracts lower as April was up 60 cents ahead of Monday’s expiration. Feeder cattle futures were also lower, with April expiring at $140.175. The CME feeder cattle index was up $1.29 on April 25 at $139.49. Wholesale boxed beef values were higher on Thursday afternoon. Choice boxes were up $1.62 at $220.15, with Select boxes $1.33 higher at $204.48. Estimated week to date FI cattle slaughter was 474,000 head. That is 4,000 head above the previous week and up 5,000 head from the same week in 2017. Export sales of beef for the week of 4/19 were reported at 18,539 MT, down 6.9% from a week ago and 12.6% from last year at this time. Shipments of beef were shown at 15,724 MT, up 3.21% from last week and 15% larger than last year.

Apr 18 Cattle closed at $122.525, up $0.600,

Jun 18 Cattle closed at $104.350, down $1.225,

Aug 18 Cattle closed at $104.025, down $1.250,

Apr 18 Feeder Cattle closed at $140.175, up $0.325

May 18 Feeder Cattle closed at $140.300, down $1.050

Aug 18 Feeder Cattle closed at $146.500, down $0.925

Lean Hogs

Lean hog futures posted $1.125 to $1.35 losses in the front months on Thursday. The CME Lean Hog Index was up $1.44 from the previous day to $60.44 on April 24. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was down 64 cents at $67.85 this afternoon. The national base hog weighted average price was 2 cents higher at $58.32. The USDA estimated FI weekly hog slaughter at 1.859 million head through Thursday. That is 1,000 head above last week and 89,000 head above the same week in 2017. Weekly pork export sales were 26,361 MT in the USDA report this morning. That is 14.8% larger than last year and up 47.1% from last week. Pork export shipments were up 54.6% from last week to 24,958 MT.

May 18 Hogs closed at $67.325, down $1.225,

Jun 18 Hogs closed at $74.000, down $1.350

Jul 18 Hogs closed at $77.300, down $1.125

Cotton

Cotton futures finished the Thursday session with nearby contracts 23 points higher and back months lower. This morning’s USDA Export Sales report indicated that 311,973 RB of old crop upland cotton was sold in the week of 4/19. That was a 7.48% jump from last week and is 170% larger than last year. New crop sales were reported at a MY high of 259,335 RB. Shipments of upland were reported at 421,431 RB, 16.43% above last week and 39.37% larger than last year. The Cotlook A index was down 2.50 cents from the previous day on April 25 to 90.70 cents/lb. The Adjusted World Price was updated to 74.25 cents/lb this morning, 9 points above the previous week.

May 18 Cotton closed at 84.990, up 23 points,

Jul 18 Cotton closed at 84.170, up 23 points

Oct 18 Cotton closed at 80.420, down 47 points

Energy

Crude Oil and Natural Gas futures were on the move today after the surprise draw from the EIA Report for Nat Gas. $NG_F finished the day up 1.0%, while $CL_F finished the day essentially unchanged. But what makes Crude Oil “on the move” is the headline new of the Iranian Nuclear Deal. May 12th is the deadline for President Trump to ratify the agreement by stating that Iran has been in compliance or they have not. If President Trump seems the Iranians have not been in compliance, the Iranian Dan actions go back into place, taking 350,000 barrels of crude off of the market. Forbidding most of the United States’ allies and business partners from dealing with Iranian Crude Oil. This would impact the already depleted crude oil supplies further, and could push WTI much higher from its current level.

As noted above, the dollar regained its strength to the upside today and would typically take WTI lower, which it did not today, leading some to believe this could be the specter to the Iranian Nuclear Deal. Moreover, the price action in Brent Crude Oil Futures have begun to strengthen, given that the Brent Oil contact is where the OPEC Oil Contract is actually priced.

Again, as WTI was unchanged we saw Brent trading higher to the time of half a percentage point. Naturally then moving to the Brent/WTI spread, which has been slowly widening over the last few days and today widening again.

Source :

Brugler Marketing & Management, LLC

FINVIZ

NOAA

USDA

-R.W.N II

The Grains Complex II

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Day two, with the weather heading across the country, might continue to impede the planting progress into the weekend.

And If I do say so myself, I compiled the information below during a top notch professional showing from the Boston Bruins tonight. Winning against the Toronto Maple Leafs 6-3.

To wit:

United States EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change was reported at 2.170M in 20/Apr from -1.071M in the previous period. It was expected at -2.043M

United States EIA Gasoline Stocks Change was reported at 0.840M in 20/Apr from -2.968M in the previous period. It was expected at -0.625M.

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I’d say so, check out the price action in O.J. over the last month.

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Corn

Corn futures ended the Wednesday session with most contracts 5 to 6 cents higher, following wheat. Wednesday’s weekly EIA report showed ethanol production for the week that ended 4/20 dropping 24,000 barrels per day to 985,000 bpd. That is the lowest weekly production total since the week of October 6 last year. Stocks of ethanol were 357,000 barrels higher than the previous week at 21.701 million barrels. The Midwest was the only region to see stocks shrink. The average trade guess for old crop export sales ahead of tomorrow is 0.8-1.2 MMT, with new crop ranging 200,000-400,000 MT. China’s corn acreage is expected to be down nearly 823,000 acres from last year in an effort to help trim stocks. Brazil’s second crop is experiencing some dryness in Parana, the country’s second-largest corn-producing state.

May 18 Corn closed at $3.86 1/2, up 5 1/4 cents,
Jul 18 Corn closed at $3.95 3/4, up 5 3/4 cents,
Sep 18 Corn closed at $4.03, up 5 3/4 cents
Dec 18 Corn closed at $4.12 1/4, up 5 3/4 cents

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Soybeans

Soybean futures closed with 4 to 6 cent gains on Wednesday. Soy meal was $4.10/ton higher, with front-month soy oil down 23 points. Ahead of Thursday’s USDA Export Sales report, analysts are expecting to see old crop soybean sales in the range of 400,000-700,000 MT. New crop is seen as having the same range. Sales of soy meal are projected at 100,000-30,000 MT, with soy oil at 8,000-30,000 MT. The USDA Ag Attaché expects the Brazilian soybean crop at 115 MMT for 2018/19, even with the current 17/18 projection.

May 18 Soybeans closed at $10.27 1/2, up 5 1/4 cents,
Jul 18 Soybeans closed at $10.39 1/4, up 5 1/4 cents,
Aug 18 Soybeans closed at $10.41 1/2, up 5 1/2 cents,
Nov 18 Soybeans closed at $10.34 3/4, up 6 cents,
May 18 Soybean Meal closed at $376.20, up $4.10,
May 18 Soybean Oil closed at $30.79, down $0.22

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Wheat

Wheat futures saw gains of 6 to 7 cents in most MPLS contracts on Wednesday. CBT and KC led the way, 12 to 15 cents higher. Scattered reports of freeze damage in KS helped. The 5-day QPF shows most of the Southern Plains fairly dry over the next few days. After last week’s Export Sales report showed a net reduction in old crop wheat sales, this week’s report is estimated to have a net reduction of 100,000 MT to sales of 200,000 MT. New crop wheat is expected to see sales of 150,000-350,000 MT in the week that ended April 19. The annual Hard Winter Wheat Quality tour will take place next week, as analysts will look to get a better idea of the crop’s quality.

May 18 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.86 1/4, up 13 3/4 cents,
May 18 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.07, up 14 1/2 cents,
May 18 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.99 1/2, up 6 3/4 cents

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Source:

Brugler Marketing & Management, LLC

NOAA 

EIA 

USDA 

-R.W.N II