Daily Note: Knights of Labor

 

Mussel+Shells+with+Lemon.jpg
TERRY TRAMBAUER NORRIS 
‘MUSSEL SHELLS WITH LEMON’, 12 X 14, OIL ON LINEN ON PANEL

Overnight News 

IDR.jpg

*ECB’S NOWOTNY SIGNALS ITALIAN WOES SHOULDN’T DELAY RATE HIKES

*CHINA, JAPAN ARE BOTH CONFIDENT ON ECONOMIC OUTLOOK: LIU KUN

*CHINA, JAPAN TO BOOST COOPERATION ON STRUCTURAL REFORMS: LIU

*TURKEY CUTS TAX ON LIRA DEPOSITS, HIKES TAX ON FX DEPOSITS: NTV

*CHINA SETS YUAN REFERENCE RATE AT 6.8246 AGAINST U.S. DOLLAR

*CHINA AUG. MANUFACTURING PMI AT 51.3; EST. 51.0

*CHINA AUG. MANUFACTURING PMI AT 51.3; EST. 51.0

*TRUMP: IF NO DEAL W/CANADA U.S. WILL PUT TARIFFS ON THEIR AUTOS

*TRUMP SAYS NAFTA DEAL WITH CANADA `COULD HAPPEN’

*TRUMP REITERATES THAT CANADA MUST GET RID OF TRADE BARRIERS

*JAPAN JULY INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT -0.1% M/M; EST. 0.2%

*JAPAN JULY JOBLESS RATE 2.5%; EST 2.4%

*ARGENTINA’S DUJOVNE SAYS ECONOMY HAS STRONG FUNDAMENTALS

*ARGENTINA’S DUJOVNE SEES IMF TALKS ADVANCING QUICKLY

*N.Z. AUG. CONSUMER CONFIDENCE FELL 0.7% M/M, ANZ SAYS

*N.Z. AUG. CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX FALLS TO 117.6 VS 118.4

*JAPAN’S NODA SAYS WON’T RUN IN LDP LEADERSHIP CONTEST: KYODO

*GERMAN JULY RETAIL SALES RISE 0.8 % Y/Y

*NORWAY JULY CREDIT RISES 5.7% FROM THE YEAR EARLIER

Bund Opening Calls: Futures Seen Opening Steady Around 162.99

*ITALY PREMIER CONTE WON’T SEEK SECOND MANDATE: CORRIERE

*ITALY MUST RESPECT COMMITMENTS IN BUDGET LAW: MOSCOVICI TO SOLE


GLOBAL MACRO MONITOR 

Related image


Image result for us civil war flag

United States Chicago PMI was reported at 63.6 in Aug from 65.5 in the previous period. It was expected at 63.
United States Michigan Consumer Expectations Final was reported at 87.1 in Aug from 87.3 in the previous period. It was expected at 87.5
United States Michigan Current Conditions Final was reported at 110.3 in Aug from 114.4 in the previous period. It was expected at 108.1

United States Michigan Inflation Expectations Final was reported at 3.0% in Aug from 2.9% in the previous period. It was expected at 2.9%.

United States Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations Final was reported at 2.6% in Aug from 2.4% in the previous period. It was expected at 2.5%

United States Consumer Confidence was reported at 96.2 Index Points in Aug 2018 from 97.9 in the previous period.

Image result for baker hughes ge
US Total Rig Count 1,048 
Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count 862 
Baker Hughes US Gas Rig Count 184 


Screen Shot 2018-08-05 at 4.29.35 PM

 

 

 

Screen Shot 2018-08-05 at 5.14.40 PM

Bloomberg World Index reversal after the green Setup 9 as expected.

(Source: H.F.T )

EEM Emerging Markets ETF isn’t down that much and I’m holding the small long for now.

(Source: H.F.T )

Nikkei bullish sentiment is at 70%.

Nikkei should reverse lower.

(Source: H.F.T )

FXI still sideways. (iShares China Large-Cap ETF)

(Source: H.F.T )

SPX bullish sentiment is at 75%.

(Source: H.F.T )

Nasdaq bullish sentiment is at 77%.

NDX Index with green Setup 9 today

(Source: H.F.T )

Dow Jones Industrial Average price flip down today with green 1.

(Source: H.F.T )

   IWM Russell 2000 stalling here.

(Source: H.F.T )

Euro Stoxx 50 just fell apart.  I removed the small FEZ long with a small gain.  If the US starts to weaken, Europe will fall too.

(Source: H.F.T )

Euro Banks making a new low.  The second chart is the weekly and on week 9 of 13.  Going lower.

(Source: H.F.T )

German DAX another lower high.

(Source: H.F.T )


Screen Shot 2018-08-05 at 4.29.43 PM

 

 

 

Screen Shot 2018-08-05 at 5.14.40 PM

 

 

Screenshot 2018-08-31 14.55.52

US Dollar bullish sentiment is at 53% and holding the midpoint 50% level

(Source: H.F.T )

Euro bullish sentiment is at 48%.

(Source: H.F.T )

Yuan still is weak and didn’t bounce much

(Source: H.F.T )

Screen Shot 2018-08-05 at 4.29.51 PM

 

 

 

Screen Shot 2018-08-06 at 3.05.53 PM

Screen Shot 2018-08-05 at 5.14.40 PM

 

 

Screenshot 2018-08-31 14.56.04

 

Gold bullish sentiment is at 26%.
“12 Bid at 17”.

(Source: H.F.T )

Screen Shot 2018-08-06 at 3.05.39 PM

 

 

Screen Shot 2018-08-05 at 5.14.40 PM

 

 

Screenshot-2018-08-31-14.56.11.png

Wheat December Contract 

Soybeans November Contract 

Corn December Contract 


Screen Shot 2018-08-06 at 3.05.46 PM

Screen Shot 2018-08-05 at 5.14.40 PM

 

 

Screenshot 2018-08-31 14.55.58

Crude bullish sentiment is at 90% and this is very extreme and as sell off is due.

Looking for crude to sell of from here with a green sell Setup 9 count.


Screen Shot 2018-08-05 at 4.29.47 PM

Screen Shot 2018-08-05 at 5.14.40 PM

 

 

Screenshot 2018-08-31 14.55.39

Bond bullish sentiment is at 73%. 

US 30Y Yield 

(Source: H.F.T )

US 10 Year YIeld on day 4 of 13 with a downside red Sequential Countdown.  Bonds are going to rally and stocks are going lower.  Risk off

US 10Y Yield 

(Source: H.F.T )

  • US 3m10s
  • US 2s10s 
  • US 5s30s

us yc.jpg

US OIS 

Screen Shot 2018-08-04 at 9.12.10 PM

Screen Shot 2018-08-05 at 5.14.40 PM

 

 

CBOE SPX Volatility Index 

CBOE SKEW INDEX 

Merrill Lynch Option Volatility Estimate MOVE INDEX 


WATCHLIST 

blog_eyer_all_seeing_eye_claude_harris_board_detail_880x

-R.W.N II

Mail AttachmentMail Attachment-1

Banyan Capital Management, LLC (“BCM”) is a publisher, not a registered investment advisor, and nothing in BCM’s newsletter is intended, and it should not be construed, to be investment advice. BCM’s newsletter is for informational use only. Any mention in BCM’s newsletter of a particular security, index, derivative, or other instrument is neither a recommendation by BCM to buy, sell, or hold that security, index, derivative, or other instrument, nor does it constitute an opinion of BCM (or of any of its officers, employees, agents or representatives) as to the suitability of that security, index, derivative or other instrument for any particular purpose. BCM is not in the business of giving investment advice or advice regarding the suitability for any purpose of any security, index, derivative, other instrument or trading strategy and nothing in BCM’s newsletter should be so used or relied upon. BCM is not acting as your financial advisor nor in a fiduciary capacity, with regard to any securities, index, derivative or other instrument referred to in BCM’s newsletter. Also, no representation is made concerning the tax implications in any applicable jurisdiction regarding any securities, index, derivative or other instrument and BCM is not advising you in respect of the tax implications. All opinions and estimates in the newsletters are given as of the date of their publication on the BCM’s website and are subject to change and BCM does not assume any obligation to update the newsletters or to reference any such changes. BCM hereby expressly disclaims any and all representations and warranties that: (a) the content of its newsletters is correct, accurate, complete, reliable or a guaranty of future performance; (b) any of its newsletters will be available at any particular time or place, or in any particular medium; and (c) that any omission or error in any of its newsletters will be corrected. BCM shall not be liable for any errors or omissions made in its newsletters or for any inaccuracies in its assumptions. BCM specifically disclaims liability for any losses or damages (incidental, consequential or otherwise) that may arise from the newsletters and that are either used or relied upon by anyone for any reason, including without limitation, the use of the newsletters in the preparation of any financial books and records. Although from time to time BCM’s newsletter may link to or promote others’ websites or services, BCM is not responsible for and does not control those websites or services. BCM’s newsletter is published and distributed in accordance with applicable United States and foreign copyright and other laws. Without the prior written consent of BCM, no person or entity, directly or indirectly, may copy, reproduce, recompile, decompile, disassemble, reverse engineer, distribute, publish, display, perform, modify, upload to create derivative works from, transmit, or in any way exploit all or any part of BCM’s website, its newsletter, or any other material belonging to BCM.

Without the prior written consent of BCM, no person or entity, directly or indirectly, may offer all or any part of BCM’s website, its newsletter, or any other material belonging to BCM for sale, nor may any person or entity, directly or indirectly, distribute all or any part of BCM’s website, its newsletter, or any other material belonging to BCM over or by means of any medium.
Without the prior written consent of BCM, no person or entity, directly or indirectly, may make all or any part of BCM’s website, its newsletter, or any other material belonging to BCM, available as part of or in connection with another website, whether by hyper-link, framing on the Internet or otherwise. At any given time BCM’s principals may or may not have a financial interest in any or all of the securities and instruments discussed herein. At any given time BCM’s principals may or may not have a financial interest in any or all of the securities and instruments discussed herein.

 

 

 

 

 

Advertisements

Daily Note : Outward Bound

 

Image result for outward bound flag

 

GLOBAL MACRO MONITOR 

Related image


Image result for us civil war flag

United States Continuing Jobless Claims was reported at 1,708K in 18/Aug from 1727K in the previous period. It was expected at 1725K.
United States Initial Jobless Claims was reported at 213K in 25/Aug from 210K in the previous period. It was expected at 214K.
United States EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change was reported at 70B in 24/Aug from 48Bcf in the previous period. It was expected at 64Bcf.
United States Natural Gas Stocks Change was reported at 70 Billion cf in 2018-08-24 from 48 in the previous period.
USDA Corn Unmilled Total Export Sales Data/Total

USDA Unmilled Corn Export Sales Data

USDA Soybeans Total Export Sales Data/Total

USDA Soybeans Export Sales Data

USDA All Wheat Total Export Sales Data/Total

USDA Total Wheat Export Sales Data CMY

USDA All Upland Cotton Total Export Sales/Total
USDA Current Marketing Year Upland Cotton Export Sales
US Personal Income MoM SA

US Personal Consumption Expenditures Nominal Dollars MoM SA

US Personal Consumption Expenditures Chained 2012 Dollars MoM SA

US Personal Consumption Expenditures Chain Type Price Index MoM SA

US Personal Consumption Expenditures Chain Type Price Index YoY SA

US Personal Consumption Expenditure Core Price Index MoM SA

US Personal Consumption Expenditure Core Price Index YoY SA

US Initial Jobless Claims SA
US Continuing Jobless Claims SA

EIA Natural Gas Implied Flow/US Total

US DOE Working Natural Gas Change in Estimated Storage Data

Bloomberg US Weekly Consumer Comfort Index


Screen Shot 2018-08-05 at 4.29.35 PM

 

 

Euro Stoxx 50 running out of mojo but will stay long for now.

(Source: H.F.T )

Euro Bank Index 

Spain doesn’t look good at all.

(Source: H.F.T )

Italy still very weak.

(Source: H.F.T )

Italian 10 year yields.

(Source: H.F.T )

EEM likely going to be under some pressure

(Source: H.F.T )

Nikkei bullish sentiment is at 77%.

(Source: H.F.T )

Shanghai looks weak.

(Source: H.F.T )

Screen Shot 2018-08-05 at 5.14.40 PM

Screenshot 2018-08-30 13.58.01

SPX bullish sentiment is at 80%, up 5 points from yesterday.

Screenshot 2018-08-30 14.03.45.png

(Source: H.F.T )

NDX bullish sentiment at 83%, up 3 points from yesterday.

Screenshot 2018-08-30 14.04.34.png

(Source: H.F.T )

Dow Jones Industrial Average stalling after a big of an overthrow.

(Source: H.F.T )

IWM Russell 2000 stalling too.

(Source: H.F.T )

Screen Shot 2018-08-05 at 4.29.43 PM

 

 

 

Screen Shot 2018-08-05 at 5.14.40 PM

 

 

Screenshot 2018-08-30 13.58.16

US Dollar bullish sentiment is at 51% and could hold the midpoint here and bounce as it has come down from 96% recently.

US Dollar Index could start a bounce after the green Setup 9

(Source: H.F.T )

Euro bullish sentiment is at 53%.

(Source: H.F.T )

British Pound Sterling bullish sentiment at 38%, up 7 points from yesterday. Screenshot 2018-08-30 14.22.46.png

(Source: H.F.T )

Yuan weakened overnight and price flipped too (green 1).

(Source: H.F.T )

Screen Shot 2018-08-05 at 4.29.51 PM

 

 

 

Screen Shot 2018-08-06 at 3.05.53 PM

Screen Shot 2018-08-05 at 5.14.40 PM

 

 

 Gold bullish sentiment is at 32%“Gold still needs to do a lot more work above the 50 day would be a good start.”

(Source: H.F.T )

Screen Shot 2018-08-06 at 3.05.39 PM

 

 

Screen Shot 2018-08-05 at 5.14.40 PM

 

 

Screenshot 2018-08-30 13.58.48


Screen Shot 2018-08-06 at 3.05.46 PM

Screen Shot 2018-08-05 at 5.14.40 PM

 

 

Screenshot 2018-08-30 13.58.27

Crude bullish sentiment is at 87% and this is extreme. I expect a pullback in the next couple days. 

(Source: H.F.T )


Screen Shot 2018-08-05 at 4.29.47 PM

Screen Shot 2018-08-05 at 5.14.40 PM

 

 

Screenshot 2018-08-30 13.58.08

T-Bond bullish sentiment is at 70%, up 3 points from yesterday.

Screenshot 2018-08-30 14.06.39.png

(Source: H.F.T )

US 30Y Yield 

T-Note bullish sentiment is at 34%, up 2 points from yesterday.

Screenshot 2018-08-30 14.07.54.png

(Source: H.F.T )

US 10Y Yield 

TLT Bond ETF held the 50 day

(Source: H.F.T )

US 3m10s

US 2s10s 

US 5s30s

US OIS 

 

Screen Shot 2018-08-04 at 9.12.10 PM

Screen Shot 2018-08-05 at 5.14.40 PM

 

 

CBOE SPX Volatility Index 

 

CBOE SKEW INDEX 

 

Merrill Lynch Option Volatility Estimate MOVE INDEX 


WATCHLIST 

blog_eyer_all_seeing_eye_claude_harris_board_detail_880x

-R.W.N II

Mail AttachmentMail Attachment-1

Banyan Capital Management, LLC (“BCM”) is a publisher, not a registered investment advisor, and nothing in BCM’s newsletter is intended, and it should not be construed, to be investment advice. BCM’s newsletter is for informational use only. Any mention in BCM’s newsletter of a particular security, index, derivative, or other instrument is neither a recommendation by BCM to buy, sell, or hold that security, index, derivative, or other instrument, nor does it constitute an opinion of BCM (or of any of its officers, employees, agents or representatives) as to the suitability of that security, index, derivative or other instrument for any particular purpose. BCM is not in the business of giving investment advice or advice regarding the suitability for any purpose of any security, index, derivative, other instrument or trading strategy and nothing in BCM’s newsletter should be so used or relied upon. BCM is not acting as your financial advisor nor in a fiduciary capacity, with regard to any securities, index, derivative or other instrument referred to in BCM’s newsletter. Also, no representation is made concerning the tax implications in any applicable jurisdiction regarding any securities, index, derivative or other instrument and BCM is not advising you in respect of the tax implications. All opinions and estimates in the newsletters are given as of the date of their publication on the BCM’s website and are subject to change and BCM does not assume any obligation to update the newsletters or to reference any such changes. BCM hereby expressly disclaims any and all representations and warranties that: (a) the content of its newsletters is correct, accurate, complete, reliable or a guaranty of future performance; (b) any of its newsletters will be available at any particular time or place, or in any particular medium; and (c) that any omission or error in any of its newsletters will be corrected. BCM shall not be liable for any errors or omissions made in its newsletters or for any inaccuracies in its assumptions. BCM specifically disclaims liability for any losses or damages (incidental, consequential or otherwise) that may arise from the newsletters and that are either used or relied upon by anyone for any reason, including without limitation, the use of the newsletters in the preparation of any financial books and records. Although from time to time BCM’s newsletter may link to or promote others’ websites or services, BCM is not responsible for and does not control those websites or services. BCM’s newsletter is published and distributed in accordance with applicable United States and foreign copyright and other laws. Without the prior written consent of BCM, no person or entity, directly or indirectly, may copy, reproduce, recompile, decompile, disassemble, reverse engineer, distribute, publish, display, perform, modify, upload to create derivative works from, transmit, or in any way exploit all or any part of BCM’s website, its newsletter, or any other material belonging to BCM.

Without the prior written consent of BCM, no person or entity, directly or indirectly, may offer all or any part of BCM’s website, its newsletter, or any other material belonging to BCM for sale, nor may any person or entity, directly or indirectly, distribute all or any part of BCM’s website, its newsletter, or any other material belonging to BCM over or by means of any medium.
Without the prior written consent of BCM, no person or entity, directly or indirectly, may make all or any part of BCM’s website, its newsletter, or any other material belonging to BCM, available as part of or in connection with another website, whether by hyper-link, framing on the Internet or otherwise. At any given time BCM’s principals may or may not have a financial interest in any or all of the securities and instruments discussed herein. At any given time BCM’s principals may or may not have a financial interest in any or all of the securities and instruments discussed herein.

 

 

 

Daily Note: Breakfast at Tiffany’s

 

48x48+NYC.jpg

 

 

 

GLOBAL MACRO MONITOR 

Related image

 

Image 8-29-18 at 1.01 PMImage 8-29-18 at 1.01 PM (1)Image 8-29-18 at 1.01 PM (2)


Image result for us civil war flag

image001.png

 

United States MBA Mortgage Applications was reported at -1.7% in 24/Aug from 4.2% in the previous period. It was expected at 0.66%.
image001.png
United States MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate was reported at 4.78% in 24/Aug from 4.81% in the previous period. It was expected at 4.81%.
image001.png
United States GDP Growth Rate QoQ 2nd Est was reported at 4.2% in Q2 from 2.2% in the previous period. It was expected at 4%.

image002.png

Screenshot 2018-08-29 12.08.05
(Via BEA )
United States GDP Growth Rate was reported at 4.2 percent in 2018 from 2.2 in the previous period.
image002.png
United States Consumer Spending was reported at 12841.2 USD Billion in 2018 from 12722.84 in the previous period.
image003.png
Image result for eia
United States EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change was reported at -2.566M in 24/Aug from -5.836M in the previous period. It was expected at -0.686M.
image001.png
United States EIA Gasoline Stocks Change was reported at -1.554M in 24/Aug from 1.2M in the previous period. It was expected at 0.37M.
image003.png
United States 7-Year Note Auction was reported at 2.844% from 2.930% in the previous period

Screen Shot 2018-08-05 at 4.29.35 PM

 

 

 

Bloomberg World Index still so far from January highs.  -H.F.T 

image011.png

EEM Emerging Markets ETF holding the 50 day. -H.F.T 

image010.png

Australia ASX 200 looks higher. -H.F.T 

image009.png

Canada TSX with a Sequential Countdown 13.  -H.F.T 

image008.png

Euro Stoxx 50 still ok as a long. -H.F.T 
image007.png
Nikkei bullish sentiment is at 72%. Nikkei upside exhaustion today.  -H.F.T 

image006.png

India Nifty 50 Index no changes.  -H.F.T 

image005.png

Screen Shot 2018-08-05 at 5.14.40 PM

Screenshot 2018-08-29 13.17.24

SPX bullish sentiment is at 75% -H.F.T 

SPX daily now has some possibility of a continuation with a new secondary upside red Countdown.  A reversal down in the coming days has to happen or else we could see this continue to 13.  We saw secondary upside exhaustion Countdowns in January too.-H.F.T 

image001.png

Nasdaq bullish sentiment is at 77%.-H.F.T 

NDX Attribution today shows AMZN, MSFT, AAPL, GOOGL attributing more than have the gains.  When these go down the narrow attribution will happen and that will be felt. -H.F.T 

 

image002.png

Dow Jones Industrial Average a bit of an overthrow similar to January. -H.F.T 

image003.png

  IWM Russell 2000 with a Combo 13 today. -H.F.T 

image004.png

 


Screen Shot 2018-08-05 at 4.29.43 PM

 

 

 

Screen Shot 2018-08-05 at 5.14.40 PM

Screenshot 2018-08-29 13.07.32

 

 

 

 

 

US Dollar bullish sentiment is at 55% and down from 96% recent peak. -H.F.T 

US Dollar Index

image001.png

Euro bullish sentiment is at 50%. -H.F.T 

Euro Spot

image002.png

British Pound Sterling Spot 

image003.png

“Green day for equities. Sell Chinese exposure via the FXI ETF.”
Yuan dropped last night and if this continues this could be a catalyst for selling around the world. -H.F.T 

Yuan Spot 

image004.png

Emerging Market FX 

Turkish Lira Spot 

image005.png

Mexican Peso Spot 

image006.png

Swedish Krona 

image007.png

Argentine Peso Spot 

image008.png

Screen Shot 2018-08-05 at 4.29.51 PM

Screen Shot 2018-08-06 at 3.05.53 PM

Screen Shot 2018-08-05 at 5.14.40 PM

 

Screenshot-2018-08-29-13.07.22.png

image001.png
Gold bullish sentiment is at 36%. Gold still lacking thrust.  -H.F.T 

image004.png

image005.png

Screen Shot 2018-08-06 at 3.05.39 PM

 

 

Screen Shot 2018-08-05 at 5.14.40 PM

 

 

Screenshot 2018-08-29 13.06.35

 

 

 

image001.png

image001.png

image002.png

image003.png

 

Screen Shot 2018-08-06 at 3.05.46 PM

Screen Shot 2018-08-05 at 5.14.40 PM

 

Screenshot 2018-08-29 13.07.00

 

 

 

Screenshot 2018-08-29 13.07.13

image001.png
Crude bullish sentiment is at 82% and remains in the extreme zone. Crude up again today.            -H.F.T 

image001.png

image002.png

image001.png

 

Screen Shot 2018-08-05 at 4.29.47 PM

Screen Shot 2018-08-05 at 5.14.40 PM

 

 

Screenshot 2018-08-29 13.17.18

Bond bullish sentiment is at 67%.  -H.F.T 

US 30Y Yield 

image006.png

US 10Y Yield 

image007.png

vs USGG10Y  With the UST 10yr Yield approaching the top-end of the Risk Range buy TLT for long bond exposure. It’s also nice that you can size up positions like this into month-end. You get your monthly coupon in early September” 

image001.png

US 2s10s 

image008.png

US 5s30s

image009.png

US OIS 

image010.png

Screen Shot 2018-08-04 at 9.12.10 PM

Screen Shot 2018-08-05 at 5.14.40 PM

 

 

Screenshot 2018-08-29 13.17.27

 

CBOE SPX Volatility Index 

image011.png

CBOE SKEW INDEX 

image012.png

Merrill Lynch Option Volatility Estimate MOVE INDEX 

image013.png

 

WATCHLIST 

blog_eyer_all_seeing_eye_claude_harris_board_detail_880x

image001-84.pngimage001.pngimage001.png

-R.W.N II

Mail AttachmentMail Attachment-1

Banyan Capital Management, LLC (“BCM”) is a publisher, not a registered investment advisor, and nothing in BCM’s newsletter is intended, and it should not be construed, to be investment advice. BCM’s newsletter is for informational use only. Any mention in BCM’s newsletter of a particular security, index, derivative, or other instrument is neither a recommendation by BCM to buy, sell, or hold that security, index, derivative, or other instrument, nor does it constitute an opinion of BCM (or of any of its officers, employees, agents or representatives) as to the suitability of that security, index, derivative or other instrument for any particular purpose. BCM is not in the business of giving investment advice or advice regarding the suitability for any purpose of any security, index, derivative, other instrument or trading strategy and nothing in BCM’s newsletter should be so used or relied upon. BCM is not acting as your financial advisor nor in a fiduciary capacity, with regard to any securities, index, derivative or other instrument referred to in BCM’s newsletter. Also, no representation is made concerning the tax implications in any applicable jurisdiction regarding any securities, index, derivative or other instrument and BCM is not advising you in respect of the tax implications. All opinions and estimates in the newsletters are given as of the date of their publication on the BCM’s website and are subject to change and BCM does not assume any obligation to update the newsletters or to reference any such changes. BCM hereby expressly disclaims any and all representations and warranties that: (a) the content of its newsletters is correct, accurate, complete, reliable or a guaranty of future performance; (b) any of its newsletters will be available at any particular time or place, or in any particular medium; and (c) that any omission or error in any of its newsletters will be corrected. BCM shall not be liable for any errors or omissions made in its newsletters or for any inaccuracies in its assumptions. BCM specifically disclaims liability for any losses or damages (incidental, consequential or otherwise) that may arise from the newsletters and that are either used or relied upon by anyone for any reason, including without limitation, the use of the newsletters in the preparation of any financial books and records. Although from time to time BCM’s newsletter may link to or promote others’ websites or services, BCM is not responsible for and does not control those websites or services. BCM’s newsletter is published and distributed in accordance with applicable United States and foreign copyright and other laws. Without the prior written consent of BCM, no person or entity, directly or indirectly, may copy, reproduce, recompile, decompile, disassemble, reverse engineer, distribute, publish, display, perform, modify, upload to create derivative works from, transmit, or in any way exploit all or any part of BCM’s website, its newsletter, or any other material belonging to BCM.

Without the prior written consent of BCM, no person or entity, directly or indirectly, may offer all or any part of BCM’s website, its newsletter, or any other material belonging to BCM for sale, nor may any person or entity, directly or indirectly, distribute all or any part of BCM’s website, its newsletter, or any other material belonging to BCM over or by means of any medium.
Without the prior written consent of BCM, no person or entity, directly or indirectly, may make all or any part of BCM’s website, its newsletter, or any other material belonging to BCM, available as part of or in connection with another website, whether by hyper-link, framing on the Internet or otherwise. At any given time BCM’s principals may or may not have a financial interest in any or all of the securities and instruments discussed herein. At any given time BCM’s principals may or may not have a financial interest in any or all of the securities and instruments discussed herein.

 

 

Daily Note : Low Draft

 

60x48+Boston.jpg

 

GLOBAL MACRO MONITOR 

Related imageimage001.pngimage001.pngimage001.png


Image result for us civil war flag

(Bloomberg) — The U.S. merchandise-trade deficit widened more than expected in July, while inventories increased at wholesalers and retailers, according to preliminary figures Tuesday from the Commerce Department in Washington. The goods-trade gap grew to $72.2 billion, the biggest since February, from a revised $67.9 billion the prior month, compared with the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey that called for a deficit of $69 billion. Wholesale inventories rose 0.7 percent, while retail inventories rose 0.4 percent.

image003.png

United States Wholesale Inventories MoM Adv was reported at 0.7 in Jul from 0.1% in the previous period. It was expected at -0.2%. 

image001.png

United States Wholesale Inventories was reported at 0.7 percent in Jul 2018 from 0.1 in the previous period. 

United States Redbook YoY was reported at 5.1 in 25/Aug from 4.7% in the previous period. 

image002.png

United States Redbook MoM was reported at 0.4 in 25/Aug from 0.2% in the previous period.

United States S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price MoM was reported at 0.5% in Jun from 0.7% in the previous period. It was expected at 0.6%. 

United States S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price YoY was reported at 6.3% in Jun from 6.5% in the previous period. It was expected at 6.5%. 

image005.png

United States Case Shiller Home Price Index was reported at 213.07 Index Points in Jun 2018 from 212 in the previous period.

image006.png

S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index

image007.png

United States 4-Week Bill Auction was reported at 1.930% from 1.910% in the previous period.

 

United States 5-Year Note Auction was reported at 2.765% from 2.815% in the previous period.

Richmond Manufacturing Survey Current Manufacturing Composite SA image009.png

Conference Board Consumer Confidence SA 1985=100

image011.png


Screen Shot 2018-08-05 at 4.29.35 PM

image009.png

Bloomberg World Index bouncing but still well off highs. –H.F.T 

image010.png

EEM Emerging Markets ETF still like it long. –H.F.T 

EURO STOXX 50 Price (SX5E)

image013.png

Euro Stoxx 50 still like it long. –H.F.T 

 

image012.png

German DAX needs to break the string of lower highs. –H.F.T 

Euro STOXX Bank Price EUR (SX7E) 

image011.png

Euro Banks still look weak. –H.F.T 

FSTE 1000 Index  (UKX)

image014.png

UK sideways. –H.F.T 

FSTE MIB Index (FTSEMIB)

image015.png

Italy couldn’t get moving much after the downside 13.  No rush to buy Italian stocks.-H.F.T 

 

Nikkei bullish sentiment is at 76%. – H.F.T 

image019.png
Nikkei should get the upside exhaustion in the next few days. – H.F.T 

HSI Index  Hong Kong Seng Index 

image020.png

Hong Kong traded up but closed near the low.  Still more work needed. – H.F.T 

image021.png

India’s Nifty 50 on day 11 of 13 now. – H.F.T 

image021.png

SPX bullish sentiment is at 80%. – H.F.T 

SPX daily with a green Setup 9 too. – H.F.T 

image003.png

S&P Emini Futures with both a Countdown 13 and Setup 9. – H.F.T 

image006.png

SPY vs TLT ratio did get the upside 13 too today. -H.F.T 

image001.png

Nasdaq bullish sentiment is at 80%. -H.F.T 

Nasdaq 100 Futures September 18 (U) 

image004.png

NDX Index did have a recent upside exhaustion too. -H.F.T 

image002.png

Dow Jones Industrial Average has thrown over after the recent upside exhaustion signals – similar to what happened in late January too.  -H.F.T 

 

image007.png

IWM Russell 2000 with green Setup 9 today. -H.F.T 

image008.png


Screen Shot 2018-08-05 at 4.29.43 PM

US Dollar bullish sentiment is at 57% and down from 96% on 8/14. -H.F.T 

image016.png

US Dollar Index could see a bounce after the 9 tomorrow. -H.F.T 

 

Euro bullish sentiment is at 47% and still under 50%. -H.F.T 

image017.png

Euro Spot same with 8/9 on the Setup as the USD. -H.F.T 
Yuan strengthened last night a little but I still think this could be the 4th wave of 5 (5 will break through 7). -H.F.T 

image018.png

Screen Shot 2018-08-05 at 4.29.51 PM

 

Screen Shot 2018-08-06 at 3.05.53 PM

Gold bullish sentiment is at 42% and another new high for this move. -H.F.T 

image024.png

Gold still has work to do but it seems to be moving in the right direction albeit a bit slow.  -H.F.T 

image025.png

Screen Shot 2018-08-06 at 3.05.39 PM

 

 

Screen Shot 2018-08-05 at 5.14.40 PM

 

 

 

 

CBOT Wheat Futures Dec’18 (Z) 

image026.png

CME Soybean Futures November ’18 (X) 

image027.png

CME Corn Futures December ’18 (Z) 

image028.png

 

Screen Shot 2018-08-06 at 3.05.46 PM

Crude bullish sentiment is at 85% and is extreme.  -H.F.T  

CO1 (generic 1st ‘CL’ Future’ ) Brent

image023.png

CL1 (generic 1st ‘CL’ Future’ ) WTI 

image022.png

 

Screen Shot 2018-08-05 at 4.29.47 PM

Bond bullish sentiment is at 72%. -H.F.T  

US 30-Year Yield 

image029.png

US 10-Year Yield 

image030.png

US 10 year yield  I feel should move lower but it just can’t break the downside at 2.80%. -H.F.T  

US 2s10s spread

image031.png

US 5s30s spread

image032.png

Screen Shot 2018-08-04 at 9.12.10 PM

 

CBOE SPX Volatility Index 

image033.png

CBOE SKEW INDEX 

image034.png

Merrill Lynch Option Volatility Estimate MOVE INDEX 

image035.png

 

 

WATCHLIST 

blog_eyer_all_seeing_eye_claude_harris_board_detail_880x

image001.pngimage001.png

 

-R.W.N II

Mail AttachmentMail Attachment-1

 

Banyan Capital Management, LLC (“BCM”) is a publisher, not a registered investment advisor, and nothing in BCM’s newsletter is intended, and it should not be construed, to be investment advice. BCM’s newsletter is for informational use only. Any mention in BCM’s newsletter of a particular security, index, derivative, or other instrument is neither a recommendation by BCM to buy, sell, or hold that security, index, derivative, or other instrument, nor does it constitute an opinion of BCM (or of any of its officers, employees, agents or representatives) as to the suitability of that security, index, derivative or other instrument for any particular purpose. BCM is not in the business of giving investment advice or advice regarding the suitability for any purpose of any security, index, derivative, other instrument or trading strategy and nothing in BCM’s newsletter should be so used or relied upon. BCM is not acting as your financial advisor nor in a fiduciary capacity, with regard to any securities, index, derivative or other instrument referred to in BCM’s newsletter. Also, no representation is made concerning the tax implications in any applicable jurisdiction regarding any securities, index, derivative or other instrument and BCM is not advising you in respect of the tax implications. All opinions and estimates in the newsletters are given as of the date of their publication on the BCM’s website and are subject to change and BCM does not assume any obligation to update the newsletters or to reference any such changes. BCM hereby expressly disclaims any and all representations and warranties that: (a) the content of its newsletters is correct, accurate, complete, reliable or a guaranty of future performance; (b) any of its newsletters will be available at any particular time or place, or in any particular medium; and (c) that any omission or error in any of its newsletters will be corrected. BCM shall not be liable for any errors or omissions made in its newsletters or for any inaccuracies in its assumptions. BCM specifically disclaims liability for any losses or damages (incidental, consequential or otherwise) that may arise from the newsletters and that are either used or relied upon by anyone for any reason, including without limitation, the use of the newsletters in the preparation of any financial books and records. Although from time to time BCM’s newsletter may link to or promote others’ websites or services, BCM is not responsible for and does not control those websites or services. BCM’s newsletter is published and distributed in accordance with applicable United States and foreign copyright and other laws. Without the prior written consent of BCM, no person or entity, directly or indirectly, may copy, reproduce, recompile, decompile, disassemble, reverse engineer, distribute, publish, display, perform, modify, upload to create derivative works from, transmit, or in any way exploit all or any part of BCM’s website, its newsletter, or any other material belonging to BCM.

Without the prior written consent of BCM, no person or entity, directly or indirectly, may offer all or any part of BCM’s website, its newsletter, or any other material belonging to BCM for sale, nor may any person or entity, directly or indirectly, distribute all or any part of BCM’s website, its newsletter, or any other material belonging to BCM over or by means of any medium.
Without the prior written consent of BCM, no person or entity, directly or indirectly, may make all or any part of BCM’s website, its newsletter, or any other material belonging to BCM, available as part of or in connection with another website, whether by hyper-link, framing on the Internet or otherwise. At any given time BCM’s principals may or may not have a financial interest in any or all of the securities and instruments discussed herein. At any given time BCM’s principals may or may not have a financial interest in any or all of the securities and instruments discussed herein.

Daily Note

fullsizeoutput_9d8.jpeg

Daily Note 

August 27th, 2018


 

GLOBAL MACRO MONITOR 

Related image

 

image001.pngimage002.pngimage003.pngimage004.pngimage005.png


 

Image result for us civil war flag

 

image001.png

US Trade in Goods Balance Total Census Basis SA

image001.png

Merchant Wholesalers Inventories Total Monthly % Change

image002.png

Retail Inventories Seasonally Adjusted Month over Month change

image003.png

S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite City Home Price SA Index MOM%

image004.png

S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite City Home Price NSA Index YOY%

image005.png

S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price NSA Index

image006.png

S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index

image007.png

S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index YOY%

image008.png

Richmond Manufacturing Survey Current Manufacturing Composite SA

image009.png

 

Conference Board Consumer Confidence SA 1985=100

image010.png

Conference Board Consumer Confidence Present Situation SA 1985=100

image011.png

Conference Board Consumer Confidence Expectations SA 1985=100

image012.png

Watching both the Conference Board Consumer Confidence and Richmond Fed Manufacturing Surveys reach their 2 std level and 1.5 std, respecilvely.

image001.png

 

 


Screen Shot 2018-08-05 at 4.29.35 PM

Euro Stoxx 50 still looks good and I remain long. – H.F.T 

image001.png

EEM Emerging Markets ETF back over the 50 day and is improving.  I remain long.-H.F.T 

image002.png

India Nifty Fifty Index on day 10 of 13 with upside Sequential Countdown. –H.F.T 

image003.png

Nikkei bullish sentiment is at 68%. –H.F.T 

Nikkei is on day 11 of 13 with Sequential Countdown and believe upside is limited here. –H.F.T 

image004.png

Nikkei Futures 

image005.png

 

 

 

FXI Hong Kong China ETF. 

image006.png

 

SPX bullish sentiment is at 73%. – H.F.T 

SPX daily should have the green Setup 9 tomorrow too. – H.F.T 

image007.png

S&P 100 same story. –H.F.T 

image008.png

SPY vs TLT ratio is nearing another top. –H.F.T 

image009.png

Nasdaq bullish sentiment is at 74%. –H.F.T 
NDX Index had upside exhaustion on Friday. –H.F.T 

image010.png

Nasdaq 100 Futures has the upside exhaustion today. –H.F.T 

image012.png