Simulacro de incendio

 

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(Bloomberg) — U.S. stocks rallied, the S&P 500 Index headed for its first back-to-back gains of October. Strong earnings, which had largely been largely overshadowed in recent days, sparked gains; however, risks still remain with upcoming midterm elections to potential contentious trade talks with China.

Ahead, the U.S. jobs report is due Friday after ADP data surprised to the upside on Wednesday.

(Source: The Heisenberg Report)

Key Headlines:

  • Jordan says all-out trade war would have “drastic” effects on the global economy
  • Pence midterm schedule to focus on House, Governor races not the House: Axios
  • EIA inventory report shows crude build
  • General Electric downgraded to Baa1 by Moody’s, outlook stable

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The dollar added to a 16-month high while Mexico’s peso slumped over 2% after Fitch cut the country’s credit rating outlook to negative.

 

The EUR fell after inflation accelerated in October complicating the ECB’s decision process after the economy slowed to its weakest since 2014.

Sterling extended gains after a letter from U.K. Brexit secretary Dominic Raab was released saying a Brexit deal could be agreed by Nov. 21.

Turkey’s lira plunged and bonds fell after the government announced a wide range of tax cuts fueling inflation concerns.

 

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(Bloomberg) — The Bloomberg Grains Subindex heads for the third straight monthly drop, the longest slump this year, as the dollar rises to the highest since May 2017 against a basket of currencies, eroding the appeal of commodities priced in the greenback.

The subindex comprised of corn, wheat and soybeans has dropped 9.6% since the end of July.

The U.S.-China trade war drove the oilseed lower, and Russian wheat exports have overtaken U.S. shipments. 

Drivers

Dollar  

Lifted by Drop in Havens After U.S. Data, Refunding The dollar extended modest gains after both 3Q ECI and ADP data for October beat estimates, while UST 10-year yields advanced after the Treasury refunding announcement China.

Soybean Futures Post Biggest Monthly Slump in a Year Escalating concerns on the spread of African swine fever erodes demand prospects for livestock feed The disease was reported at a new farm in Hunan province, according to the World Organization of Animal Health.

More than 100,000 hogs have been killed in various provinces to combat the outbreak in the world’s largest pig industry since the first case in August Russia  Signals Higher Wheat Exports After Ministry Meeting Russia indicated it’s comfortable with a higher level of wheat exports, a sign that curbs are less likely The Agriculture Ministry said it expects wheat exports of 33m tons to 34mm, topping estimates.

Prices

On Wednesday, soybean futures for January delivery rise 0.6% to $8.52 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade after touching $8.44 1/2, the contract’s lowest since Sept. 20.

Wheat futures for December delivery drop 0.9% to $4.95 1/4 a bushel The price heads for the third straight monthly decline, the longest slump this year. 

Market talk

“The path of least resistance has been lower as the dollar rallies and the trade war lingers,” Arlan Suderman , chief commodities economist for INTL FCStone in Kansas, City, Mo., says in a report

Other markets

Soybean-meal futures for December delivery rise 0.5% to $306.60 for 2,000 lbs after touching $302, the lowest since Sept. 18 Aggregate trading for this time rises 23% above the 100-day average, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

 

(Bloomberg) — The dollar’s rally and rebounding equities took the shine off gold’s first monthly advance since March. The metal fell for a third day as the greenback touched a 17-month high. Stock markets extended a bounce back after plunging the past few weeks. Gold futures posted the best month since January after the equities sell-off spurred demand for the metal as a haven and investors boosted ETF holdings to a two- month high.

Drivers

Holdings in exchange-traded funds backed by gold rose to 2,125 tons as of Tuesday, data compiled by Bloomberg showAssets are up 23.8 tons this month, snapping five months of declines.

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index +0.3% after hitting the highest since May 2017U.S. equities advanced on Wednesday and European stocks jumped, tracking a rebound across Asia


Prices

Gold futures for Dec. delivery -0.8% to settle at $1,215/oz at 1:32pm on Comex in N.Y.Touch lowest in almost three weeksPrice advances 1.6% this month

Market commentary

“Sentiment seems to have shifted once again toward risk-on, giving a lift to stock markets and putting pressure on bullion,” says Carlo Alberto De Casa, chief analyst at brokerage
ActivTradesThe dollar is the biggest headwind to bullion, Nick Holland, CEO of Gold Fields, says in Bloomberg TV interview on WednesdayGold has been “pulled down by relief rally and window dressing for stocks,” along with higher interest rates and a
stronger dollar, George Gero, a managing director at RBC Wealth Management, says in note to clients.

Other precious metals

Silver futures fall on Comex, post 4th monthly loss in 5.

Platinum futures rise on Nymex, post 2nd straight monthly increase.

Palladium futures climb on NymexMetal has monthly loss after reaching record on Oct. 23


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(Bloomberg) — Treasuries dipped into month-end settlement as long-end futures were heavily sold, steepening the curve; a large block trade in USZ8 contract shortly after 2pm New York time was influential, along with gains for stocks fueled by strong earnings and month-end rebalancing.

  • Yields rose 2bp-3bp across the curve; late sell-off at long end erased what remained of 5s30s flattening, pushing the spread back above 40bp
    • Wells Fargo this week estimated that as much as $21b of U.S. stocks could be bought and $27 of bonds sold for rebalancing after October performance gap
    • Bloomberg Barclays Treasury Index had a 0.22% loss on the month through Tuesday; declines fueled by strong economic data that pushed yields to YTD highs during the first half of the month were pared as U.S. equity benchmarks slid toward lowest levels of the year, stoking demand for bonds
  • S&P 500 was higher by more than 1.5% ahead of the cash equity close, led by megacap tech and auto companies after Facebook and GM reported results
  • Treasuries’ decline gathered pace during U.S. morning after strong October ADP employment; curve flattened amid real-money selling in 2-year and belly and large block buyer in ultra bond futures
  • In eurodollars, reds (Dec10-Sep20) out to greens (Dec20-Sep21) weakened by up to 5bp; EDZ8/EDZ9 spread steepened around 3bp, reaching as high as 46.5bp during U.S. morning
  • In eurodollar options, large downside position emerged across Mar19 puts via ~35k EDH9 97.125/97.00/96.875 1x3x2 put fly bought between 1.25 and 1.5 ticks; payout scenario includes Fed hiking rates in December and March meeting, with FRA/OIS around 30bp

(Bloomberg) — There are big changes coming to the TIPS program in 2019, but excitement over the news could not overcome the continued drop in commodity prices over the week, as TIPS underperformed nominals.

  • The U.S. Treasury said Wednesday that it will increase the amount of TIPS issued in 2019 by adding an October-maturing 5Y tenor. This will help fill in the large seasonality gap in the TIPS curve and hopefully will improve liquidity for the entire curve.
  • Real yields rose on the week in a fairly parallel manner. The additional notional in the 5-year part of the curve didn’t seem to cause it to underperform
  • Real Yield Change Carry Change Adjusted for Carry 5yr 1.06% 0.049% -0.001% 0.050% 10yr 1.08% 0.050% -0.001% 0.051% 30yr 1.29% 0.054% 0.000% 0.054%
  • TIPS trailed their nominal comparators during the week, with all breakevens tightening during the real yield selloff. The front end performed the worst as WTI oil fell more than 2% over the week
  • BEI BEI Change Carry Change Adjusted for Carry 5yr 1.91% -0.005% -0.005% -0.010% 10yr 2.07% -0.003% -0.003% -0.006% 30yr 2.10% 0.001% -0.001% -0.001%
  • Short-end real rates rallied on the week as soft equities had investors rethinking how quickly the FOMC will raise rates *T Today Last Week Change 1y1y Nominal 3.247% 3.205% 0.042% 1y1y Inflation 2.195% 2.093% 0.102% 1y1y Real 1.052% 1.112% -0.060%
  • Cash generally outperformed swaps and the basis between the two tightened Basis Chg 5yr 0.278% -0.004% 10yr 0.201% -0.011% 30yr 0.234% -0.006%

 


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(Bloomberg) — Only two high-grade borrowers came forward Wednesday to bring $2.4 billion of new supply across three tranches, in contrast to the 19 that priced during the first two trading sessions of the week. Issuers may be a bit gun-shy after Tuesday’s primary performance.

  • Daimler Finance North America is pricing $1.75b of 3Y fixed and floating rate notes
    • Parent Daimler AG last week reported 3Q revenue that beat analyst estimates and struck a more confident tone for 4Q after two profit warnings due to trade tensions and tighter emissions standards
  • Canadian National Railway initially came to market with two tranches but eventually dropped a 2Y tranche and opted to borrow the full $650m as a 30Y bond
    • The rail freight company’s 3Q earnings beat estimates and it approved a new buyback plan for as many as 5.5m shares
  • Today’s trades close out October at just under $86b of ex-SSA/EM volume, well short of the ~$110b market participants had estimated
  • Turning to the SSA space, Swedish Export Credit priced a $1b global bond today, while BNG Bank sold a $500m sustainability bond
    • Both deals announced with a no-grow target size
  • IG-rated EM issuers were also active with deals from Indonesia’s PT Pertamina ($750m), India’s REC Ltd ($700m) and Abu Dhabi’s Mubadala Development ($800m)
  • Duke Energy Carolinas is a candidate to kick off November corporate issuance as it wraps up investor outreach today for a possible green bond

ISSUANCE STATS Day   $2.400b WTD  $10.200b MTD  $85.875b YTD $981.759b *T DEALS

  • Daimler Finance North America LLC (DAIGR) A2/A, $1.75b across 2 tranches
    • $1.25b 3Y Fixed at +85; +85#, +100-105
    • $500m 3Y FRN at 3mL +67; L equiv
  • Canadian National Railway Co (CNRCN) A2/A
    • $650m 30Y at +105; +105#, +115 area
    • 2Y tranche dropped at guidance phase
    • Deal upsized from $600m

 

 


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-R.W.N II, yours in 322.

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Las guerras comerciales se ganan o se pierden en los costos de oportunidad marginales.

 

 

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(Bloomberg) — Stocks pared the volatile morning session’s rally with the S&P failing to pierce a recent congestion level around 2,675; the broad index remains on the cusp of a correction.

GE sank to a nine-year low on disappointing results. 

Facebook reports after the markets close.

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Treasuries fell and the dollar rose; the Bloomberg dollar index set a 2018 high.

Cable extended losses after S&P said the chance of a no-deal Brexit is now a rating consideration.

Italian sovereign bonds fell, the spread over German bunds widening as EU concerns on Italian debt weighed.

Elsewhere, copper extended the month’s slide while crude fell as trade tensions weigh on global demand.

Key Headlines:

  • EU commission says Italy debt a concern for the whole euro- zone
  • U.S. consumer confidence in Oct. rose to 137.9 vs. 135.3 prior
  • Mexico 3Q preliminary GDP 2.6% y/y; estimate 2.4%
  • German inflation accelerates to 2.4%, highest since February 2012

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(Bloomberg) — Rapeseed futures in Paris are trading at a one-month low. The market is under pressure from declining soybean and canola prices, according to Agritel. Parts of Europe are also poised to get a bout of beneficial rains. In Ukraine, the grain harvest is nearing the finish and farmers are almost done seeding winter grains, the agriculture ministry says.

Market Movers

Rapeseed futures for Feb. fall as much as 0.3% to EU373 a ton in Paris, contract’s lowest since Sept. 27

Oilseeds are “still experiencing a bearish pressure implied by the structural weakness of the soybean in Chicago,” Agritel says in note Dec. wheat futures fall as much as 1.6% on CBOT

Latest News

Ukraine Harvested  57.5m Tons of Grain So Far This Season Farmers harvested grain from 13.3m ha, or 90% of the planted area, with an average yield of 4.31 tons/ha, the Agriculture Ministry says Drought and Tariffs  Awaken Commodities in Boon for Top Exchange Trading in CME Agriculture complex jumped most in three years.

Wheat

Turkish Grain Board  Plans to Purchase 2.5m Tons Wheat in 2019 Turkey sees Grain Board, or TMO, purchasing 0.5m ton corn in 2019, according to the presidency’s annual program published in Official Gazette Russian Wheat

Price  Falls Amid Rising Export Competition Russian wheat export price fell to $224/ton as of Friday

Crop Weather

U.S.:  Midwest Faces Deluge, Threatening Harvest

EMEA:  Rain Boosts Wheat Outlook in Parts of Europe

ASIA:  Snow in China Corn Areas; Showers in Malaysia

WEEK 1 Forecast Total

WEEK 1 Forecast Total

Prices

CBOT  soybeans  for Jan. -0.4% to $8.48 3/4 a bushel by 3:35pm in London

Soybean meal  for Dec. -0.3% to $307.30 per 2,000 lbs

Soybean oil  for Dec. -0.2% to 27.84c/lb

Corn  -0.5% to $3.64 3/4 a bushel

Milling wheat  -0.6% to EU199.25 a ton in Paris


(Bloomberg) — Soybean futures fall to the lowest in five weeks on signs that demand remains muted in China, the world’s top buyer, amid persistent trade friction with the U.S. Aggregate trading for this time rises 40% above the 100-day average, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

The Bloomberg Agriculture Subindex of nine prices drops to a four-week low with most components posting a decline. The gauge is down 10% this year.

Drivers

Soybean  

Supply

Overhang May Mark Long-Term Bottom: BI “Conditions are ripe for lower 2018 prices marking a longer-term bottom in soybeans” “They are at the epicenter of U.S.-China trade tension and have been pressured by an unprecedented increase in Corn Belt production and a slumping Brazilian real”

Ship

With U.S. Soybeans Changes Course From  China  to Vietnam A ship carrying U.S. soybeans changed destination from China to Vietnam as exporters find new buyers for American supplies amid an escalating trade war.

Ship With U.S. Soybeans Changes Course From China to Vietnam

Prices

Soybean  futures for January delivery fall as much as 0.5% to $8.47 3/4 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade, the contract’s lowest since Sept. 20 The price on Monday dropped 0.6%

Market talk

“The trade situation with China remains uncertain as another round of tariffs is being discussed for implantation in December,” MaxYield Cooperative in West Bend, Iowa, says in a report “This comes as China has announced it will reduce protein levels in hog and poultry feed” to shift use away soybeans “U.S. soybean values delivered to China are 22% lower than Brazil, even with the 25% tariff added in”.

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(Bloomberg) — Raw sugar falls for the fourth straight session as traders book profit following an October surge spurred by the Brazilian real’s rally.

Coffee caps the biggest three-day slump in 16 months, and cotton drops.

The Bloomberg Softs Subindex with those three commodities slumps as much as 1.4% on Tuesday to a two-week low.

The gauge has declined 15% this year amid global surpluses for coffee and sugar.

Other softs

Arabica-coffee futures for December delivery fall 1.6% to $1.124/lb In three sessions, the price tumbles 7.2%, the most since June 2017.

Cotton futures for December delivery drop 0.3% to 76.9c/lb.

Drivers

The real is little changed on Tuesday after weakening as much as 2.2% on Monday

NOTE: Datagro More Than Doubles Estimate for 2018-19 Global Deficit

NOTE: India’s Sugar Production, Exports Seen Increasing, USDA FAS Says

Prices

Raw sugar for March delivery falls 1.3% to settle at 13.32c/lb on ICE Futures U.S. in N.Y. after touching 13.17c, the lowest for a most-active contract since Oct. 15 The four-session slump was the longest since Aug. 1  This month, the price has jumped 19%, the most since 2015

Market talk

“Profit-taking following the massive price rise since the start of the month and the weaker Brazilian real are likely to have been the main reasons” for sugar’s decline, Commerzbank says in a report

NOTE : Indian Sugar Mills Extend Gains After ISMA Cuts Output Forecast

 



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(Bloomberg) — Issuers lit up the U.S. investment-grade primary bond market this morning, taking advantage of a more upbeat macro tone.

  • Six domestic high-grade borrowers came forward today versus five that issued on Monday
    • Tool maker Stanley Black & Decker is among those, marketing deal in two parts after meeting with bond investors yesterday
  • The week is shaping up to be busier than last as $3.5b priced Monday and $15b-$20b is expected in total
  • High-grade credit index held again yesterday after a steady streak of widening through this month

Deals

  • Stanley Black & Decker Inc. (SWK) $Benchmark 10Y, 30Y
  • Corning Inc. (GLW) $Benchmark 30Y, 50Y
  • Eastman Chemical Co. (EMN) $800m WNG 3Y, 10Y
  • Ryder System Inc. (R) $300m WNG 5Y
  • Cleveland Electric Illuminating Co./The (FE) $300m WNG 12Y
  • TD Ameritrade Holding Corp. (AMTD) $Benchmark 3Y FRN, 5Y

SSA/EM

  • Oesterreichische Kontrollbank AG (OKB) $1b WNG 5Y
  • Empresa Nacional del Petróleo (ENAP) $Benchmark 10Y Avg Life Sr Unsec
  • BNG Bank NV (BNG) $500m WNG 3Y Sustainability Bond
  • Svensk Exportkredit AB (SEK) $1b WNG 3Y

Mandates

  • Whirlpool slated to hold calls today and Duke Energy Carolinas conducts calls Wednesday

 


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(Bloomberg) — A grinding rally over the U.S. session failed to see Treasuries unwind an Asia selloff, leaving yields cheaper by 1.9bp to 2.9bp across the curve; a choppy day for stocks helped underpin USTs into the settlement, while USD/JPY gained and dollar index climbed on the back of a weaker U.K. pound.

  • UST 10-year yields cheapened by ~2.3bp at 3.11% and ended close to the middle of a 3.081%-3.121% daily range; the long end led losses, steepening 5s30s curve by a further 0.7bp and topping at ~42bp, the widest level since April 9
  • Most gains over U.S. session were seen during the morning, where Treasuries rallied as S&P e-minis threatened to break through Asia session lows ahead of the cash equities open
    • During the morning advance, domestic real money was seen buying belly of the curve
  • Most Treasuries losses occurred during the Asia session after U.S. President Trump’s comments on trade with China lifted risk sentiment
  • Eurodollar options flow included upside via 30k EDF9 97.125/97.25/97.375 1x3x2 call fly at 1 tick; meanwhile, Treasury options flow included upside via ~14k TYZ8 121 calls, paying 4 ticks


-R.W.N II, yours in 322.

Charlotte NC - Founders Hall lobby with frescos by world famous artist Ben Long
Charlotte NC – Founders Hall lobby with frescos by world famous artist Ben Long

Banyan Capital Management, LLC (“BCM”) is a publisher, not a registered investment advisor, and nothing in BCM’s newsletter is intended, and it should not be construed, to be investment advice. BCM’s newsletter is for informational use only. Any mention in BCM’s newsletter of a particular security, index, derivative, or other instrument is neither a recommendation by BCM to buy, sell, or hold that security, index, derivative, or other instrument, nor does it constitute an opinion of BCM (or of any of its officers, employees, agents or representatives) as to the suitability of that security, index, derivative or other instrument for any particular purpose. BCM is not in the business of giving investment advice or advice regarding the suitability for any purpose of any security, index, derivative, other instrument or trading strategy and nothing in BCM’s newsletter should be so used or relied upon. BCM is not acting as your financial advisor nor in a fiduciary capacity, with regard to any securities, index, derivative or other instrument referred to in BCM’s newsletter. Also, no representation is made concerning the tax implications in any applicable jurisdiction regarding any securities, index, derivative or other instrument and BCM is not advising you in respect of the tax implications. All opinions and estimates in the newsletters are given as of the date of their publication on the BCM’s website and are subject to change and BCM does not assume any obligation to update the newsletters or to reference any such changes. BCM hereby expressly disclaims any and all representations and warranties that: (a) the content of its newsletters is correct, accurate, complete, reliable or a guaranty of future performance; (b) any of its newsletters will be available at any particular time or place, or in any particular medium; and (c) that any omission or error in any of its newsletters will be corrected. BCM shall not be liable for any errors or omissions made in its newsletters or for any inaccuracies in its assumptions. BCM specifically disclaims liability for any losses or damages (incidental, consequential or otherwise) that may arise from the newsletters and that are either used or relied upon by anyone for any reason, including without limitation, the use of the newsletters in the preparation of any financial books and records. Although from time to time BCM’s newsletter may link to or promote others’ websites or services, BCM is not responsible for and does not control those websites or services. BCM’s newsletter is published and distributed in accordance with applicable United States and foreign copyright and other laws. Without the prior written consent of BCM, no person or entity, directly or indirectly, may copy, reproduce, recompile, decompile, disassemble, reverse engineer, distribute, publish, display, perform, modify, upload to create derivative works from, transmit, or in any way exploit all or any part of BCM’s website, its newsletter, or any other material belonging to BCM.Without the prior written consent of BCM, no person or entity, directly or indirectly, may offer all or any part of BCM’s website, its newsletter, or any other material belonging to BCM for sale, nor may any person or entity, directly or indirectly, distribute all or any part of BCM’s website, its newsletter, or any other material belonging to BCM over or by means of any medium.Without the prior written consent of BCM, no person or entity, directly or indirectly, may make all or any part of BCM’s website, its newsletter, or any other material belonging to BCM, available as part of or in connection with another website, whether by hyperlink, framing on the Internet or otherwise. At any given time BCM’s principals may or may not have a financial interest in any or all of the securities and instruments discussed herein. At any given time BCM’s principals may or may not have a financial interest in any or all of the securities and instruments discussed herein.

Colgando en el corte.

 

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(Bloomberg) — Stocks are little-changed as traders continue to fade equity rallies and as a report of further potential U.S. tariffs on China weighed further. Tech sector weighing, Amazon.com, Netflix lead Nasdaq 100 Index to session lows, wiping out earlier gains.

Britain’s Hammond unexpectedly announced plans to introduce a tax on the world’s biggest tech firms.

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The dollar gained, weighing on emerging markets. The Mexican peso fell to nearly 20 to the dollar after the incoming president canceled airport construction.

Sterling slid after the U.K. Chancellor of the Exchequer delivered the country’s budget.

Treasuries extended losses on IG issuance; a number of IG deals with long-end tranches are slated for pricing this afternoon in New York.

Silver led precious metals lower as exchange-traded funds cut their holdings.

In Europe, Italian debt extended gains after S&P Global Ratings affirmed on Friday while Angela Merkel said she will quit as head of her party after nearly two decades, though she intends to see out her term as head of state.

Key Headlines:

  • U.S. is said to plan more China tariffs if Trump-Xi meeting fails
  • Trump’s lawyer predicts ‘serious discussions’ with Mueller a day after elections
  • Dallas Fed manufacturing activity at 29.4 vs 28.1 in the prior month
  • Personal income stagnated last month for the third time this year

 


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(Bloomberg) — Wheat futures in Chicago reached a one-week high following speculation that U.S. exports may gain after Egypt’s state-run buyer purchased American grain in a tender. On Friday, Egypt’s GASC bought U.S. wheat for the first time in more than a year.

  • Dec. wheat futures rose as much as 1.9% to $5.15 a bushel on CBOT, the highest since Oct. 19

Latest News Brazil’s Monster Rally Due for Reality Check After Bolsonaro Win The boom in Brazilian markets that came along with Jair Bolsonaro’s rise to power is coming in for a reality check Stocks and the currency reversed earlier gains and declined Monday, a day after the far-right lawmaker was elected president with 55 percent of votes It could be a signal that traders are looking for more evidence that Bolsonaro will actually pursue the economic moves his campaign promised, and investors salivated over, even if some aren’t broadly popular with most Brazilians

Wheat

Egypt Wheat Purchases  Are Running In Line With Last Year GASC has bought 3.81m tons for delivery in the season that started in July, putting its total imports 0.5% ahead of a year earlier Egypt Says Bank Talks  to Hedge Wheat Purchases May Be Prolonged Egypt is in discussions with banks including First Abu Dhabi Bank, National Bank of Kuwait and other Swiss lenders about hedging against increases in prices of wheat and other key commodities, Supply Minister Ali El-Mosilhy says in an interview Wheat’s Weather Worries  Drag On, But Grain Bears Are Coming Back Hedge fund net-short position reaches the most bearish since May

Corn/Soy

EU Soybean Imports  Rose 5.4% in Season Through Oct. 28 Soybean imports came to 4.13m tons since the season started July 1 vs 3.92m tons a year earlier U.S. Crop Exports:  120,000 Tons of Soybeans to Unknown Buyers The amount is for delivery by Aug. 31, USDA says China to Cut Minimum Protein  Levels in Animal Feed From Nov. 1 China will start implementing amended animal feed formulas from Nov. 1, according to a document dated Oct. 23 posted on the website of state-run China Feed Industry Association Ship

With U.S. Soybeans Changes Course From China to Vietnam A ship carrying U.S. soybeans changed destination from China to Vietnam on Saturday as exporters find new buyers for American supplies amid an escalating trade war Bulk carrier Audacity left Louis Dreyfus’ Pier 86 terminal in Seattle on Oct. 21 for Qingdao, China with 69,244 metric tons of soybeans, according to U.S. Department of Agriculture inspection data and vessel data compiled by Bloomberg U.S. Inspected 653k Tons of Corn for  Export , 1.305m of Soybeans In week ending Oct. 25, according to the USDA’s weekly inspections report

Soybeans: 1,305k tons vs 1,211k the previous wk, 2,532k a yr ago

Wheat: 393k tons vs 387k the previous wk, 319k a yr ago

Corn: 653k tons vs 1,024k the previous wk, 547k a yr ago

CROP  SURVEY : Corn Seen at 64% Harvested, Soybeans Seen at 70% Crop seen at 60% good/excellent, USDA to report first conditions est. of the mkt year Winter wheat seen at 82% planted vs 72% the previous week According to the avg est. of a Bloomberg Survey of 13 analysts polled before USDA data released

Crop Weather U.S.:  Parts of Midwest to Get ‘Significant’ Rain

Prices 

Corn  for Dec. delivery -0.3% to $3.66 3/4 a bushel on CBOT Soybeans  for Jan. delivery -0.6% to $8.52 1/4 a bushel Soybean meal  for Dec. delivery +0.3% to $308.20 per 2,000 lbs Soybean oil  for Dec. delivery -1% to 27.89c/lb SRW  for Dec. delivery +0.4% to $5.07 1/4 a bushel HRW  for Dec. delivery +0.2% to $5.01 1/2 a bushel


U.S. OIL PRODUCTS: California Republicans Bank on Gas-Tax Repeal
(Bloomberg) — A California ballot measure to reverse $54 billion in revenue increases Democrats enacted in 2017 to fund road, bridge and transit repairs may be about more than potholes and taxes. MARKET NEWS:

  • U.S. Gasoline Flows From Europe Drop Again as Stocks High: Data
  • U.S. Refineries to Run ‘Max-Diesel’ in Next Few Years: Jefferies
  • Phillips 66 Wood River Crude Section, Coker Shut: Genscape
  • Genscape Says HollyFrontier Kansas FCC Back to Normal Operations
  • Marathon Carson Refinery to Flare Oct. 30-Nov. 2: AQMD
  • Petrobras Brazil Refineries Cut Runs to 5-Month Low in September
  • Gadfly: What History of Gas Stations Means for Electric Cars

PRICES: Atlantic Coast differentials vs Nymex as of 4:30pm ET

  • 83.5 CBOB +0.28c to Nymex +0.4c
  • 84 RBOB +0.45c to +0.3c
  • ULSD -0.13c to flat
  • Jet fuel -0.25c to -3.5c

Gulf Coast differentials vs Nymex as of 4:30pm ET

  • 85 CBOB -0.25c to -4.38c
  • 84 RBOB -0.38c to -3.63c
  • ULSD +0.35c to -5.4c
  • Jet fuel -0.13c to -8.75c

Oil Analytics refining margins (as of prior session)

  • East Coast Forcados cracking -13c to $7.94/bbl
  • Gulf Coast Maya coking -25c to $7.46/bbl

Nymex futures and cracks

  • Gasoline November futures +0.99c to $1.8249/gal.
  • Diesel November futures -1.87c to $2.2843/gal.
  • 3-2-1 front month crack spread +53c to $15.92/bbl

Gasoline Arbitrage

  • Front-month U.S.-Europe RBOB-Eurobob swap spread -0.35c to -2.7c/gal

Baltic Exchange freight

  • TC2 U.K./Continent-USAC (37k tons) -0.55 WS points to WS 114.17
  • TC14 USGC-U.K./Continent (38k tons) +2.19 WS points to WS 142.19

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U.S. Investment-Grade Issuance for October 29, 2018
(Bloomberg) — Five borrowers revived the U.S. investment-grade primary market on Monday, issuing $3.5 billion in eight tranches.

  • Charles Schwab headlined issuance with a $1.1b two-part deal. The bank reported third-quarter earnings earlier this month
  • Boeing is set to price a $700m two-tranche deal even as news emerged this morning that one of its 737 Max 8 jets crashed with 189 people on board. Despite this, the deal was executed fairly well as it tightened significantly through the pricing process
  • Today’s deals were defensive in nature
    • Four of the five were announced as ‘will not grow,’ a sign that issuers wanted to be transparent in order to win over cautious investors
    • All five names were rated A3/A- or higher by Moody’s/S&P, among the highest tiers of credit quality in investment-grade
    • Bond tenors were long on average. The shortest-dated bond was a 5Y, while the rest of today’s tranches had either 10Y or 30Y maturities
  • Last week, three of five sessions were blank, and just under $6b priced amid volatile macro markets. Estimates for this week call for $15-$20b
  • Today’s supply was relatively muted given the mostly constructive macro tone and moderate weekly projections — equities held in positive territory for most of the day and futures were positive this morning when the deals were announced

 ISSUANCE STATS Day   $3.500b WTD   $3.500b MTD  $79.175b YTD $975.059b *T DEALS

  • Charles Schwab Corp/The (SCHW) A2/A, $1.1b across 2 tranches
    • $500m Long 5Y at +67; +70a (+/- 3), +80-85
    • $600m Long 10Y at +97; +100a (+/- 3), +110 area
  • Boeing Co/The (BA) A2/A, $700m across 2 tranches
    • $350m 10Y at +67; +70a (+/- 3), +85 area
    • $350m 30Y at +92; +95a (+/- 3), +110 area
    • Announced as ‘will not grow’
  • Consumers Energy Co (CMS) Aa3/A, $850m across 2 tranches
    • $300m 10Y at +73; +75a (+/- 2), +90 area
    • $550m 30Y at +103; +105a (+/- 2), +115 area
    • Announced as ‘will not grow’
  • Aflac Inc (AFL) A3/A-
    • $550m 30Y at +145; IPT +155 area
    • Announced as ‘will not grow’
  • Southwestern Public Service Co (XEL) A3/A
    • $300m 30Y at +110; IPT +120-125 area
    • Announced as ‘will not grow’

 


Treasuries Bear Steepen Despite Late Gains as U.S. Stocks Slide

(Bloomberg) — Treasuries ended the session off their worst levels as U.S. stocks extended losses following a report that the U.S. may announce more tariffs by December if talks between U.S. President Donald Trump and China President Xi Jinping fail to ease the trade war.

  • Yields were higher by up to 1.5bp in long end of the curve, steepening 5s30s by 0.8bp after erasing early flattening move over U.S. session; 10-year yields cheapened by 0.4bp at around 3.08% shortly after settlement
  • S&P 500 Index was lower by ~0.7% ahead of the cash close, Nasdaq by around 1.8% after tech stocks were notably weak following U.K. announcement of a digital- services tax

 

  • Curve steepening move started in early U.S. session as dollar IG deals, including 30-year tranches, started to mount up

Screen Shot 2018-10-29 at 4.14.42 PM.png

 


-R.W.N II, yours in 322.

steady_going

Banyan Capital Management, LLC (“BCM”) is a publisher, not a registered investment advisor, and nothing in BCM’s newsletter is intended, and it should not be construed, to be investment advice. BCM’s newsletter is for informational use only. Any mention in BCM’s newsletter of a particular security, index, derivative, or other instrument is neither a recommendation by BCM to buy, sell, or hold that security, index, derivative, or other instrument, nor does it constitute an opinion of BCM (or of any of its officers, employees, agents or representatives) as to the suitability of that security, index, derivative or other instrument for any particular purpose. BCM is not in the business of giving investment advice or advice regarding the suitability for any purpose of any security, index, derivative, other instrument or trading strategy and nothing in BCM’s newsletter should be so used or relied upon. BCM is not acting as your financial advisor nor in a fiduciary capacity, with regard to any securities, index, derivative or other instrument referred to in BCM’s newsletter. Also, no representation is made concerning the tax implications in any applicable jurisdiction regarding any securities, index, derivative or other instrument and BCM is not advising you in respect of the tax implications. All opinions and estimates in the newsletters are given as of the date of their publication on the BCM’s website and are subject to change and BCM does not assume any obligation to update the newsletters or to reference any such changes. BCM hereby expressly disclaims any and all representations and warranties that: (a) the content of its newsletters is correct, accurate, complete, reliable or a guaranty of future performance; (b) any of its newsletters will be available at any particular time or place, or in any particular medium; and (c) that any omission or error in any of its newsletters will be corrected. BCM shall not be liable for any errors or omissions made in its newsletters or for any inaccuracies in its assumptions. BCM specifically disclaims liability for any losses or damages (incidental, consequential or otherwise) that may arise from the newsletters and that are either used or relied upon by anyone for any reason, including without limitation, the use of the newsletters in the preparation of any financial books and records. Although from time to time BCM’s newsletter may link to or promote others’ websites or services, BCM is not responsible for and does not control those websites or services. BCM’s newsletter is published and distributed in accordance with applicable United States and foreign copyright and other laws. Without the prior written consent of BCM, no person or entity, directly or indirectly, may copy, reproduce, recompile, decompile, disassemble, reverse engineer, distribute, publish, display, perform, modify, upload to create derivative works from, transmit, or in any way exploit all or any part of BCM’s website, its newsletter, or any other material belonging to BCM.Without the prior written consent of BCM, no person or entity, directly or indirectly, may offer all or any part of BCM’s website, its newsletter, or any other material belonging to BCM for sale, nor may any person or entity, directly or indirectly, distribute all or any part of BCM’s website, its newsletter, or any other material belonging to BCM over or by means of any medium.Without the prior written consent of BCM, no person or entity, directly or indirectly, may make all or any part of BCM’s website, its newsletter, or any other material belonging to BCM, available as part of or in connection with another website, whether by hyperlink, framing on the Internet or otherwise. At any given time BCM’s principals may or may not have a financial interest in any or all of the securities and instruments discussed herein. At any given time BCM’s principals may or may not have a financial interest in any or all of the securities and instruments discussed herein.

Global Economic Weekly

 

 

 

Screen Shot 2018-10-27 at 4.23.31 PM

Global Economic WeeklyScreen Shot 2018-10-27 at 4.23.53 PMScreen Shot 2018-10-27 at 4.24.03 PMScreen Shot 2018-10-27 at 4.24.11 PMScreen Shot 2018-10-27 at 4.24.19 PMScreen Shot 2018-10-27 at 4.24.26 PMScreen Shot 2018-10-27 at 4.24.33 PMScreen Shot 2018-10-27 at 4.24.38 PMScreen Shot 2018-10-27 at 4.24.45 PMScreen Shot 2018-10-27 at 4.28.39 PM.png


-R.W.N II, yours in 322.

timor+mortis+(8+of+8)+final.jpg

Banyan Capital Management, LLC (“BCM”) is a publisher, not a registered investment advisor, and nothing in BCM’s newsletter is intended, and it should not be construed, to be investment advice. BCM’s newsletter is for informational use only. Any mention in BCM’s newsletter of a particular security, index, derivative, or other instrument is neither a recommendation by BCM to buy, sell, or hold that security, index, derivative, or other instrument, nor does it constitute an opinion of BCM (or of any of its officers, employees, agents or representatives) as to the suitability of that security, index, derivative or other instrument for any particular purpose. BCM is not in the business of giving investment advice or advice regarding the suitability for any purpose of any security, index, derivative, other instrument or trading strategy and nothing in BCM’s newsletter should be so used or relied upon. BCM is not acting as your financial advisor nor in a fiduciary capacity, with regard to any securities, index, derivative or other instrument referred to in BCM’s newsletter. Also, no representation is made concerning the tax implications in any applicable jurisdiction regarding any securities, index, derivative or other instrument and BCM is not advising you in respect of the tax implications. All opinions and estimates in the newsletters are given as of the date of their publication on the BCM’s website and are subject to change and BCM does not assume any obligation to update the newsletters or to reference any such changes. BCM hereby expressly disclaims any and all representations and warranties that: (a) the content of its newsletters is correct, accurate, complete, reliable or a guaranty of future performance; (b) any of its newsletters will be available at any particular time or place, or in any particular medium; and (c) that any omission or error in any of its newsletters will be corrected. BCM shall not be liable for any errors or omissions made in its newsletters or for any inaccuracies in its assumptions. BCM specifically disclaims liability for any losses or damages (incidental, consequential or otherwise) that may arise from the newsletters and that are either used or relied upon by anyone for any reason, including without limitation, the use of the newsletters in the preparation of any financial books and records. Although from time to time BCM’s newsletter may link to or promote others’ websites or services, BCM is not responsible for and does not control those websites or services. BCM’s newsletter is published and distributed in accordance with applicable United States and foreign copyright and other laws. Without the prior written consent of BCM, no person or entity, directly or indirectly, may copy, reproduce, recompile, decompile, disassemble, reverse engineer, distribute, publish, display, perform, modify, upload to create derivative works from, transmit, or in any way exploit all or any part of BCM’s website, its newsletter, or any other material belonging to BCM.Without the prior written consent of BCM, no person or entity, directly or indirectly, may offer all or any part of BCM’s website, its newsletter, or any other material belonging to BCM for sale, nor may any person or entity, directly or indirectly, distribute all or any part of BCM’s website, its newsletter, or any other material belonging to BCM over or by means of any medium.Without the prior written consent of BCM, no person or entity, directly or indirectly, may make all or any part of BCM’s website, its newsletter, or any other material belonging to BCM, available as part of or in connection with another website, whether by hyperlink, framing on the Internet or otherwise. At any given time BCM’s principals may or may not have a financial interest in any or all of the securities and instruments discussed herein. At any given time BCM’s principals may or may not have a financial interest in any or all of the securities and instruments discussed herein.

No vendas la piel del oso antes de cazarlo.

 

 

Screen Shot 2018-08-05 at 4.29.35 PM

(Bloomberg) — Early gloom and doom around stocks following misses by Amazon and Google dissipates somewhat by the afternoon, as investors nibble on the hardest hit parts of the equity space: small- and mid-cap stocks, semiconductors and home builders. Comments from a Japanese official about an unscheduled meeting to discuss the country’s depressed stock market may also be buoying trader spirits.

The VIX index was limp even when stocks were at their worst early on; some analysts see a disconnect between plunging stocks and a tame VIX rally lately.

Treasuries are trading in the middle of their daily range, propelled higher by the selloff in stocks. The 10-year briefly cut through 3.06%, but that proved to be too much as equities found their footing just as that level was being reached.

Bond rally may also have hit a wall given the inflation measures in the 3Q GDP report, while tame, are not expected to stop the Fed from raising rates again in December.

After a monster week, the greenback’s rally petered out, topping just shy of 1204 for the Bloomberg Dollar Spot index.

JPY was the standout performer versus the dollar, strengthening to 111.38 before paring.

Gold makes a round trip too. The haven bid that took it up by 1.1% was faded to a gain of 0.3% in afternoon trading.

Key Headlines:

  • Trump Says China Wants to Make Deal Badly, Not Ready Yet
  • Asakawa: BOJ, MOF, FSA held unscheduled meeting to discuss stocks
    • NOTE: Japan’s Nikkei 225 index down 9.3% month to date, heads for worst monthly drop since March 2011
  • EU, Italy Working Toward Budget Solution: Juncker to Spiegel
  • Coeure: Central Banks Must Follow Domestic Mandate in Policies
  • IMF Board Approves Increase of Argentina Loan to $56.3 Billion
  • Business-Spending Slowdown Casts Shadow on Solid U.S. GDP Report

 

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Treasuries Rally, Curve Steepens, Amid Tech-Led Equity Sell-Off

(Bloomberg) — Treasuries advanced Friday, extending weekly gains, as U.S. equities continued their month-long slide led by technology shares. Yields closely tracked stock benchmarks, reaching intraday lows during U.S. morning followed by partial rebound.

  • Yields were lower by as much as 5bp in 5-year sector shortly after 3pm New York time, steepening 5s30s curve by 2.4bp; 10- year yields were lower by 3.6bp at ~3.08% vs session low 3.055%, lowest since Oct. 3
    • 10-year yield declined more than 11bp on the week, most of the move occurring Wednesday as the S&P 500 fell 3.1% to lowest level since May.
  • Most of Friday’s gains followed a weak cash open for equities after Amazon and Alphabet results were released Thursday after the close; eurodollar strip aggressively bull flattened as expectations for Fed rate hikes fell sharply across 2019 tenors
    • By mid-afternoon, dollar OIS implied Fed terminal rate peaking at ~2.77% by December 2019, down from ~2.93% at Monday’s close
    • EDZ8/EDZ9 spread dropped as low as 38bp, tightest since Sept. 7, as rate-hike premium eroded
  • Futures volumes were robust with TY contract reaching 130% of 10-day average, TU 170%; in eurodollars EDZ9 was most active with ~650k contracts changing hands, about double the average

(Bloomberg) — Violent swings in risk assets kept potential issuers on the sidelines and the few that elected to move forward this week priced smaller deals.

  • IG weekly primary supply totaled just $5.975b, the lowest volume since the summer when the last week of August yielded just $2b
  • Treasury yields sank as traders sought out haven assets. The 10y yield is at 3.08%, down 11bps from this time last week
  • Credit spreads widened in kind. The Bloomberg Barclays IG OAS index is at the starkest divergence from Treasury yields since mid-June, closing last night at +116
  • Weekly estimates are largely calling for $15-$20b, with upside potential for $30b should the market find some stable footing
  • Early calls for November supply are $85-90b
  • Despite all this, investment-grade new issue performance was solid
    • Issuers paid less than 2bps to price deals, and orderbook oversubscription rates and spread compressions were largely in line with 2018 averages
      • Recent new issues have traded inside pricing levels
        • Constellation Brands, Kimberly Clark, SunTrust are all trading inside pricing levels
  • That’s not to say there aren’t some concerning signs emerging
    • Lipper Fund flows data show IG mutual funds posted meager inflows of just over $500m this week; this follows two weeks of rarely seen fund outflows for corporate investment-grade funds
      • IG total returns continue to lag most asset classes with the YTD return -3.39%
        • Generally, bonds with long maturities and low coupons have the longest durations. These bonds are more sensitive to a change in market interest rates and thus are more volatile in a changing rate environment
      • Anheuser-Busch InBev bonds widened as much as 10bps Wednesday after the beer bellwether announced it will cut its dividend in half

DEAL HIGHLIGHTS

  • The Constellation Brands $2.15b bond sale is the second M&A-related deal in the consumer space in as many weeks after Conagra Brands brought $7.025b for the Pinnacle Foods acquisition
    • Tranche concessions were largely negative driven by a ~$12b orderbook
    • Included 3NC1 FRN tranche, which mimics the flex provisions borrowers have in their credit facilities
  • SunTrust Bank brought the week’s largest financial issue, pricing $1.4b across three tranches and paying ~3bps in new issue concession
    • It was the third regional bank to price this week, following KeyCorp’s $500m 7y deal out of the holding company Monday and Citizens Financial Group’s $300m perpetual preferred sale
    • It joined a recent wave of domestic regional banks accessing the 7y part of the curve. These institutions may be locking in longer- term funding, extending out to a 7y from a 5y, for just a marginal increase in cost given the flatter nature of the belly of the curve
  • Kimberly Clark printed a $500m no-grow 10y, pricing inside fair value after building an orderbook 3.4 times covered
  • Two utilities, National Rural Utilities Cooperative Finance and Oglethorpe Power, both successfully upsized their deals from original targets

ISSUANCE STATS

  • Weekly volume $5.975b vs $17.825b last week
  • MTD volume $75.675b
  • September volume $122.900b
  • YTD volume $971.559b

DAILY BREAKDOWN

Day         Volume

Monday     $2.950b

Tuesday       None

Wednesday    $3.025b

Thursday       None

Friday           None

THIS WEEK’S IG ANALYSES

  • Constellation Grows $12b Book for Cannabis Deal
  • Issuers Brave Stock Slump, Concessions are Muted

 

 

 

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GRAINS WRAP EUROPE: Wheat Jumps Amid Egypt Tender, Russia Talks

Image result for Anatoly Medetsky

By Anatoly Medetsky

(Bloomberg) — Wheat rallies most in two months as Egypt considers buying U.S. wheat at its tender. U.S. wheat was the lowest offer excluding freight.
Russia’s Agriculture Minister held a meeting with exporters, raising the agency’s forecast for shipments, but saying supplies for the domestic market were still a priority.
Australia worsened the outlook for its crops after a dry September.
Market Movers           
Wheat for Dec. up as much as 4% to $5.06 3/4
Biggest intraday gain since Aug. 29
Milling wheat in Paris +1.6% to EU202.50/ton
“U.S. exporters need to become more competitive in order to bring down stocks,” Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank A/S, said before the list of best offers in Egypt was published
Latest News
Chicago Wheat Jumps as Door Opens for U.S. to Sell to Egypt
There was speculation that U.S. might get a chance to sell to Egypt for the first time since the 2016-17 season
Russia Signals Higher Wheat Exports After Ministry Meeting
That may be a sign that export curbs are less likely
Wheat
Egypt Is Said to Get Wheat Offers From 14 Companies
Australia Crop Forecast Revised Down in ABARES Drought Report
Winter crop forecast for 2018–19 revised down to 33.2 million tonnes due to lower-than-expected rainfall in Sept

Corn/Soy
Ukraine 2018-19 Corn Crop Est. Boosted to 35m Tons: Grain Group
Estimate for 2018-19 season raised from 30m tons based on harvest progress, head of Ukrainian Grain Association Mykola Horbachov said

U.S. CROP EXPORTS: 260,000 Tons of Soybeans to Unknown Buyers
Of the total, 200,000 tons are for delivery by Aug. 31, and 60,000 tons are for delivery in the 12 months that start Sept. 1, the USDA says Friday in a statement
Crop Weather
LATAM CROP WEATHER: Brazil Ports May Face Rough Sea Conditions

 


Wheat Futures Jump on U.S. Offer to Egypt as Russia Turns Inward
U.S. wheat was lowest FOB offer in Egypt’s tender, traders say
Russia said domestic market holds priority for grain supplies

By

Screen Shot 2018-10-26 at 1.28.03 PM.png

(Bloomberg) — Traders have been waiting all season for the moment U.S. wheat becomes more competitive than Russian supplies. Today’s Egypt tender was a first step in reaching that inflection point.
While U.S. grain was the lowest free-on-board offer in the tender for delivery Dec. 11-20 by state-run buyer GASC, higher freight rates kept American grain out of the list of best offers, said traders involved in the process. Still, it was a sign that U.S. supplies are gaining ground just as Russia said its domestic market will hold priority when it comes to grain supplies.
Global wheat traders closely watch Egypt as its public tenders offer a glimpse into how competitive various countries are in the world market. Russia, the biggest global shipper, has dominated Egyptian tenders in the past few years. This season, the grain powerhouse is harvesting a smaller, drought-hit crop, fueling speculation that U.S. exports will pick up.


“U.S. exporters need to become more competitive in order to bring down stocks,” Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank A/S, said before the list of best offers was published. “Today’s GASC offer could indicate that the recent drop below $5 a bushel could be what is needed in order to see a pickup in oversea demand.”


As Global Wheat Crops Fry, U.S. Exports Become More Appetizing Wheat prices have been on the rise this year, partly on speculation top shipper Russia will restrict wheat exports, opening doors for U.S. supplies. Russia said it’s necessary to give priority to supplying grains to domestic producers of flour, bread, pasta and animal feed and that Agriculture Minister Dmitry Patrushev was discussing exporters’ plans for the current season. Patrushev was meeting exporters today.

 


 

 

 

 

 

-R.W.N II, yours in 322.

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Banyan Capital Management, LLC (“BCM”) is a publisher, not a registered investment advisor, and nothing in BCM’s newsletter is intended, and it should not be construed, to be investment advice. BCM’s newsletter is for informational use only. Any mention in BCM’s newsletter of a particular security, index, derivative, or other instrument is neither a recommendation by BCM to buy, sell, or hold that security, index, derivative, or other instrument, nor does it constitute an opinion of BCM (or of any of its officers, employees, agents or representatives) as to the suitability of that security, index, derivative or other instrument for any particular purpose. BCM is not in the business of giving investment advice or advice regarding the suitability for any purpose of any security, index, derivative, other instrument or trading strategy and nothing in BCM’s newsletter should be so used or relied upon. BCM is not acting as your financial advisor nor in a fiduciary capacity, with regard to any securities, index, derivative or other instrument referred to in BCM’s newsletter. Also, no representation is made concerning the tax implications in any applicable jurisdiction regarding any securities, index, derivative or other instrument and BCM is not advising you in respect of the tax implications. All opinions and estimates in the newsletters are given as of the date of their publication on the BCM’s website and are subject to change and BCM does not assume any obligation to update the newsletters or to reference any such changes. BCM hereby expressly disclaims any and all representations and warranties that: (a) the content of its newsletters is correct, accurate, complete, reliable or a guaranty of future performance; (b) any of its newsletters will be available at any particular time or place, or in any particular medium; and (c) that any omission or error in any of its newsletters will be corrected. BCM shall not be liable for any errors or omissions made in its newsletters or for any inaccuracies in its assumptions. BCM specifically disclaims liability for any losses or damages (incidental, consequential or otherwise) that may arise from the newsletters and that are either used or relied upon by anyone for any reason, including without limitation, the use of the newsletters in the preparation of any financial books and records. Although from time to time BCM’s newsletter may link to or promote others’ websites or services, BCM is not responsible for and does not control those websites or services. BCM’s newsletter is published and distributed in accordance with applicable United States and foreign copyright and other laws. Without the prior written consent of BCM, no person or entity, directly or indirectly, may copy, reproduce, recompile, decompile, disassemble, reverse engineer, distribute, publish, display, perform, modify, upload to create derivative works from, transmit, or in any way exploit all or any part of BCM’s website, its newsletter, or any other material belonging to BCM.Without the prior written consent of BCM, no person or entity, directly or indirectly, may offer all or any part of BCM’s website, its newsletter, or any other material belonging to BCM for sale, nor may any person or entity, directly or indirectly, distribute all or any part of BCM’s website, its newsletter, or any other material belonging to BCM over or by means of any medium.Without the prior written consent of BCM, no person or entity, directly or indirectly, may make all or any part of BCM’s website, its newsletter, or any other material belonging to BCM, available as part of or in connection with another website, whether by hyperlink, framing on the Internet or otherwise. At any given time BCM’s principals may or may not have a financial interest in any or all of the securities and instruments discussed herein. At any given time BCM’s principals may or may not have a financial interest in any or all of the securities and instruments discussed herein.