The Intelligent Investor’s Guide to the U.S. Housing Market – Hedgeye

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Banyan Capital Management, LLC (“BCM”) is a publisher, not a registered investment advisor, and nothing in BCM’s newsletter is intended, and it should not be construed, to be investment advice. BCM’s newsletter is for informational use only. Any mention in BCM’s newsletter of a particular security, index, derivative, or other instrument is neither a recommendation by BCM to buy, sell, or hold that security, index, derivative, or other instrument, nor does it constitute an opinion of BCM (or of any of its officers, employees, agents or representatives) as to the suitability of that security, index, derivative or other instrument for any particular purpose. BCM is not in the business of giving investment advice or advice regarding the suitability for any purpose of any security, index, derivative, other instrument or trading strategy and nothing in BCM’s newsletter should be so used or relied upon. BCM is not acting as your financial advisor nor in a fiduciary capacity, with regard to any securities, index, derivative or other instrument referred to in BCM’s newsletter. Also, no representation is made concerning the tax implications in any applicable jurisdiction regarding any securities, index, derivative or other instrument and BCM is not advising you in respect of the tax implications. All opinions and estimates in the newsletters are given as of the date of their publication on the BCM’s website and are subject to change and BCM does not assume any obligation to update the newsletters or to reference any such changes. BCM hereby expressly disclaims any and all representations and warranties that: (a) the content of its newsletters is correct, accurate, complete, reliable or a guaranty of future performance; (b) any of its newsletters will be available at any particular time or place, or in any particular medium; and (c) that any omission or error in any of its newsletters will be corrected. BCM shall not be liable for any errors or omissions made in its newsletters or for any inaccuracies in its assumptions. BCM specifically disclaims liability for any losses or damages (incidental, consequential or otherwise) that may arise from the newsletters and that are either used or relied upon by anyone for any reason, including without limitation, the use of the newsletters in the preparation of any financial books and records. Although from time to time BCM’s newsletter may link to or promote others’ websites or services, BCM is not responsible for and does not control those websites or services. BCM’s newsletter is published and distributed in accordance with applicable United States and foreign copyright and other laws. Without the prior written consent of BCM, no person or entity, directly or indirectly, may copy, reproduce, recompile, decompile, disassemble, reverse engineer, distribute, publish, display, perform, modify, upload to create derivative works from, transmit, or in any way exploit all or any part of BCM’s website, its newsletter, or any other material belonging to BCM.Without the prior written consent of BCM, no person or entity, directly or indirectly, may offer all or any part of BCM’s website, its newsletter, or any other material belonging to BCM for sale, nor may any person or entity, directly or indirectly, distribute all or any part of BCM’s website, its newsletter, or any other material belonging to BCM over or by means of any medium.Without the prior written consent of BCM, no person or entity, directly or indirectly, may make all or any part of BCM’s website, its newsletter, or any other material belonging to BCM, available as part of or in connection with another website, whether by hyperlink, framing on the Internet or otherwise. At any given time BCM’s principals may or may not have a financial interest in any or all of the securities and instruments discussed herein. At any given time BCM’s principals may or may not have a financial interest in any or all of the securities and instruments discussed herein.

 

 

 


 

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But the Edge is still out There…..


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Neurophysiology of the sense of meaning.

The feeling of meaning is an instinct, not a thought; more specifically it’s not a secondary consequence of rational processes. It is way more profound than that; the search of meaning drives rationality itself.

Imagine there is an optimal load that a person can bear. If you exceed that optimal load it is to your determent & work to little there is no gain in the search.

You have to find that “thin edge,” where you are competent at what you are doing but you’re pushing yourself. That’s where meaning lies.

Competent and out of undue danger but pushing yourself enough whereby you are continuing your development.

That is extinct of meaning.

Which, to some researchers is the consequence of the interactions between the right & left hemispheres of the brain & also, the implications between the negative emotion systems (anxiety & pain) that regulate you, e.g., protect you from harm & the exploratory play systems that drive you forward.

Optimally you want the exploratory & play systems to drive you forward but at the same time, you want the emotional regulatory system to protect you from overexposing yourself to danger or undue harm.

If you can get the balance between the two systems optimally right than you arrive at the maximal point of challenge or meaning to one’s life.
A side-effect may include alertness because your positive emotional systems are firing and driving your forward. Statements may consist of, “This is worth doing!”

Meanwhile, your negative emotions are alert, reiterating mantras of caution and the dangers of complacency. Internal statements may include: “Stay awake, & Be Careful!”

At the point of maximal gain, & the sense of meaning puts you on the border of chaos & order.

Too much order means you’re just practicing what you already know resulting in stupefaction & stagnation; conversely, to much chaos means an increased probability of encountering danger.

What did Dr. Thompson say about “ the edge”?

“The Edge…There is no honest way to explain it because the only people who really know where it is are the ones who have gone over. The others-the living-are those who pushed their control as far as they felt they could handle it, and then pulled back, or slowed down, or did whatever they had to when it came time to choose between Now and Later.

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― Hunter S. Thompson, Hell’s Angels: A Strange and Terrible Saga

 


-R.W.N II, yours in 322.

 

 



 

[1] Screen Shot 2018-12-05 at 4.54.02 PMThe three meanings of meaning in life- Distinguishing coherence, purpose, and significance

Emerging Markets Equity Strategy – JPM

 

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Key Trades and Risks 2019 Year Ahead – Emerging Markets Equity Strategy

 

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1. CHINA’S DRAG ON THE GLOBAL ECONOMY INTENSIFIES

The Caixin Composite PMI dropped a full -1.6pts in OCT to 50.5, which represents the lowest reading since the global deflationary lows of mid-2016.

China’s OCT Headline PPI data (↓ -30bps to 3.3% YoY; breaking down from a TRENDING perspective) further underscores the disinflationary impulse upon the global economy stemming from our #ChinaSlowing theme.

The CNY is down -9% vs. the USD over the trailing six months and will be down -8% YoY in 1H19E assuming no change to the current quarterly average exchange rate, which means the inflationary impulse to import prices stemming from a full implementation to 25% tariffs on the $541.6B in goods the U.S. projected to import from China in 2018E will be more than offset by annualized dollar strength during that interval.

Chinese policymakers are officially panicking with respect to the growth outlook (e.g. strict lending quotas for private firms), but we continue to believe they remain fairly constrained on the monetary policy front until we see a dovish pivot out of the Federal Reserve – likely a mid-to-late Q1 event.

 

 

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#ShortEM (introduced 1/4/18 under the title, “#UnderweightEM”):

  • Beijing Remains Handcuffed (10/18): With respect to Chinese monetary policy, we obviously track a deluge daily/weekly/monthly data – e.g. OMO, MTLF, RRR, BPR, 7DRR, SHIBOR, etc. – but for those of you who want to boil it all down to what it actually means for economic growth on the mainland, there’s one number you need to track on a monthly basis – i.e. the annual growth rate of bank loans.

ChinaBankLoansOutstandingYoYChinaCruiseShipvs.CanoeAnalysisChinaPolicyMonitor

 


-R.W.N II, yours in 322.

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Banyan Capital Management, LLC (“BCM”) is a publisher, not a registered investment advisor, and nothing in BCM’s newsletter is intended, and it should not be construed, to be investment advice. BCM’s newsletter is for informational use only. Any mention in BCM’s newsletter of a particular security, index, derivative, or other instrument is neither a recommendation by BCM to buy, sell, or hold that security, index, derivative, or other instrument, nor does it constitute an opinion of BCM (or of any of its officers, employees, agents or representatives) as to the suitability of that security, index, derivative or other instrument for any particular purpose. BCM is not in the business of giving investment advice or advice regarding the suitability for any purpose of any security, index, derivative, other instrument or trading strategy and nothing in BCM’s newsletter should be so used or relied upon. BCM is not acting as your financial advisor nor in a fiduciary capacity, with regard to any securities, index, derivative or other instrument referred to in BCM’s newsletter. Also, no representation is made concerning the tax implications in any applicable jurisdiction regarding any securities, index, derivative or other instrument and BCM is not advising you in respect of the tax implications. All opinions and estimates in the newsletters are given as of the date of their publication on the BCM’s website and are subject to change and BCM does not assume any obligation to update the newsletters or to reference any such changes. BCM hereby expressly disclaims any and all representations and warranties that: (a) the content of its newsletters is correct, accurate, complete, reliable or a guaranty of future performance; (b) any of its newsletters will be available at any particular time or place, or in any particular medium; and (c) that any omission or error in any of its newsletters will be corrected. BCM shall not be liable for any errors or omissions made in its newsletters or for any inaccuracies in its assumptions. BCM specifically disclaims liability for any losses or damages (incidental, consequential or otherwise) that may arise from the newsletters and that are either used or relied upon by anyone for any reason, including without limitation, the use of the newsletters in the preparation of any financial books and records. Although from time to time BCM’s newsletter may link to or promote others’ websites or services, BCM is not responsible for and does not control those websites or services. BCM’s newsletter is published and distributed in accordance with applicable United States and foreign copyright and other laws. Without the prior written consent of BCM, no person or entity, directly or indirectly, may copy, reproduce, recompile, decompile, disassemble, reverse engineer, distribute, publish, display, perform, modify, upload to create derivative works from, transmit, or in any way exploit all or any part of BCM’s website, its newsletter, or any other material belonging to BCM.Without the prior written consent of BCM, no person or entity, directly or indirectly, may offer all or any part of BCM’s website, its newsletter, or any other material belonging to BCM for sale, nor may any person or entity, directly or indirectly, distribute all or any part of BCM’s website, its newsletter, or any other material belonging to BCM over or by means of any medium.Without the prior written consent of BCM, no person or entity, directly or indirectly, may make all or any part of BCM’s website, its newsletter, or any other material belonging to BCM, available as part of or in connection with another website, whether by hyperlink, framing on the Internet or otherwise. At any given time BCM’s principals may or may not have a financial interest in any or all of the securities and instruments discussed herein. At any given time BCM’s principals may or may not have a financial interest in any or all of the securities and instruments discussed herein.