Fragments. That’s how learning the Hedgeye process of measuring and mapping the data feels on a daily basis. Mr. Darius Dale, of Hedgeye Risk Management, LLC my macro quant idol, wrote an Early Look back in December of 2018 that is one of my All-Time Favorites:
Mr. Dale continues on by describing the “early days”; where I currently find myself along the sin curve of macro knowledge.
At the beginning of January Hegeye reiterating their call for #EuropeSlowing and an increased risk of a “near-term recession” for the European economies.
French Consumption Growth (JAN. Services PMI ⬇︎ -1.5pts to a new cycle-low of 47.5).
As goes China’s slowdown…
…so goes German Manufacturing Growth (Jan. Manufacturing PMI ⬇︎ -1.6pts to a new cycle low of 49.9).
“When an economy has as many structural headwinds as Europe does, a failure to accelerate against receding base effects is indicative of sequential momentum falling off a cliff. All told, there remains a knife’s edge between #Quad 1 & #Quad 4 and if January’s data is a purview into the coming year; Europe is not likely to escape #Quad 4 conditions.”Darius Dale, Hedgeye Risk Management, LLC
Thankfully I am a German Bund Bull, alongside or more accurately stated right behind Hedgeye, [it’s the system -or- process I’ve bought into and will see it to the end] with European CPI forecasts being supportive of the ECB adopting an outright monetary easing bias in the coming months.
-R.W.N II, yours in CCCXXII