Agriculture Opening Wrap 12/13/14: Ab Origine.

AgriCharts Market Commentary by Brugler Marketing, LLC

Corn

Corn futures are trading fractionally higher this morning. They closed 3/4 to 1 1/4 cent lower on Tuesday, despite posting 3-4 cent gains post report. The USDA updated the US ending stocks estimate to 2.437 bbu, a 50 mbu tightening from November and below most expectations. That came from higher ethanol usage, as production was left unchanged. The USDA tightened the cash average farm price by 10 cents to a range of $2.85-3.55, with the expected average remaining at $3.20. The world ending stocks were increased 0.22 MMT to 204.08 MMT. That was mostly from larger carryover from 16/17. Production for Brazil was left unchanged at 95 MMT by the USDA, although CONAB now estimates the crop at 92.2 MMT and some private estimates are as low as 87 MMT.

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Soybeans

Soybean futures are mostly 3 to 4 cents per bushel higher this morning. They settled Tuesday with 4 1/4 to 7 cent losses, as prices weakened into the close from 3-4 cent gains earlier. December meal was down $3.10/ton, with nearby bean oil 4 points lower. Tuesday’s USDA Supply and Demand report showed estimated US soybean ending stocks 20 mbu larger than in November. Most of that increase was from a reduction in the US export projection by 25 mbu, with seed usage raised 5 mbu. The cash average soybean price range was narrowed 30 cents to $8.60-$10.00, leaving the average mid-point at $9.30. On the World side, both Argentine and Brazilian production was left alone at 57 MMT and 108 MMT.  CONAB now sees the Brazilian crop at 109.2 MMT. The USDA added 0.42 MMT to the world ending stocks number, taking it to 98.32 MMT due to larger beginning stocks and a reduction in expected non-US crush.

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Wheat

Wheat futures are currently 2 to 3 cents higher after being mostly 1 to 3 cents lower on Tuesday. The nearby Dec contracts expire tomorrow and had zero trades overnight. The December WASDE report showed an increase of 25 mbu in the US wheat ending stocks, taking it to 960 mbu. There was a 25 mbu reduction to the export total, with Canadian competition cited. The USDA narrowed the cash average price range for wheat by 20 cents to $4.50-$4.70, as the mid-point was left at $4.60. The world ending stocks number went against expectations, and was raised 0.89 MMT to 268.42 MMT. Canadian production was increased 3 MMT, with Russian exports up 0.5 MMT. Japan’s MOA is seeking 147,696 MT in Australia, Canada, and US wheat, with 95,366 MT from the US. The tender will close Thursday.
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