Cuadros de cierre … Grillo… Grillo..

 

 

 

 

China started off hopefully and ended ugly overnight. 

But Europe managed gains, riding the coat-tails of US pre-market algos.

SAUDIS TO SAY KHASHOGGI DIED FROM BOTCHED INTERROGATION: CNN

SAUDI ARABIA ETF KSA FALLS TO SESSION LOW, DOWN AS MUCH AS 1.8%

And while US equities were down overnight, they ramped into the US open and then chopped up and down – generally higher for Dow and S&P and lower for Nasdaq – all day… until the Saudi headlines hit and sparked selling and an ugly close.

The S&P was glued at its 200DMA all day, The Dow could not hold above its 100DMA, Nasdaq was unable to break above it 200DMA and Small Caps continue to be ugly.

VIX dipped a little today at front-end (remains above 20) but the term structure remains inverted.

The spike in volatility has been mostly in equity while other assets displayed a smaller increase.

 

Treasury yields were incredibly quiet today ending the day practically unchanged across the curve.

10Y Yields traded in an exceptionally tight 2bp range all day

Among the lowest range days of the year.

 

But there was on bond that moved. Sears 

While the dollar drifted to 2-week lows… (the dollar has now flip-flopped higher and lower for 8 straight days)

Offshore Yuan trod water, finding upside resistance at the Yuan Fix.

The Turkish Lira rose for the 7th straight day…as Pastor Brunson arrived back on American soil.

Despite dollar weakness (and Saudi threats), crude and copper slipped lower on the day and PMs higher.

WTI Crude spiked at the open after the Saudi threat op-eds but faded all day and dipped when the CNN headlines hit late on. 

Gold and Silver were bid during the Asia session and started to fade as Europe opened. 

Gold tested its 100DMA (briefly).

And as a reminder, specs are about as short gold and silver as they have ever been (as of last Wednesday). 

 

Fear and Greed “off the lows” but still at “extreme fear”.

 

Finally we note that today’s disappointing retail sales data sent US “hard” economic data reeling back near one-year lows.

 


-R.W.N II, yours in 322.

The+Morikami+Japanese+Gardens

Banyan Capital Management, LLC (“BCM”) is a publisher, not a registered investment advisor, and nothing in BCM’s newsletter is intended, and it should not be construed, to be investment advice. BCM’s newsletter is for informational use only. Any mention in BCM’s newsletter of a particular security, index, derivative, or other instrument is neither a recommendation by BCM to buy, sell, or hold that security, index, derivative, or other instrument, nor does it constitute an opinion of BCM (or of any of its officers, employees, agents or representatives) as to the suitability of that security, index, derivative or other instrument for any particular purpose. BCM is not in the business of giving investment advice or advice regarding the suitability for any purpose of any security, index, derivative, other instrument or trading strategy and nothing in BCM’s newsletter should be so used or relied upon. BCM is not acting as your financial advisor nor in a fiduciary capacity, with regard to any securities, index, derivative or other instrument referred to in BCM’s newsletter. Also, no representation is made concerning the tax implications in any applicable jurisdiction regarding any securities, index, derivative or other instrument and BCM is not advising you in respect of the tax implications. All opinions and estimates in the newsletters are given as of the date of their publication on the BCM’s website and are subject to change and BCM does not assume any obligation to update the newsletters or to reference any such changes. BCM hereby expressly disclaims any and all representations and warranties that: (a) the content of its newsletters is correct, accurate, complete, reliable or a guaranty of future performance; (b) any of its newsletters will be available at any particular time or place, or in any particular medium; and (c) that any omission or error in any of its newsletters will be corrected. BCM shall not be liable for any errors or omissions made in its newsletters or for any inaccuracies in its assumptions. BCM specifically disclaims liability for any losses or damages (incidental, consequential or otherwise) that may arise from the newsletters and that are either used or relied upon by anyone for any reason, including without limitation, the use of the newsletters in the preparation of any financial books and records. Although from time to time BCM’s newsletter may link to or promote others’ websites or services, BCM is not responsible for and does not control those websites or services. BCM’s newsletter is published and distributed in accordance with applicable United States and foreign copyright and other laws. Without the prior written consent of BCM, no person or entity, directly or indirectly, may copy, reproduce, recompile, decompile, disassemble, reverse engineer, distribute, publish, display, perform, modify, upload to create derivative works from, transmit, or in any way exploit all or any part of BCM’s website, its newsletter, or any other material belonging to BCM.Without the prior written consent of BCM, no person or entity, directly or indirectly, may offer all or any part of BCM’s website, its newsletter, or any other material belonging to BCM for sale, nor may any person or entity, directly or indirectly, distribute all or any part of BCM’s website, its newsletter, or any other material belonging to BCM over or by means of any medium.Without the prior written consent of BCM, no person or entity, directly or indirectly, may make all or any part of BCM’s website, its newsletter, or any other material belonging to BCM, available as part of or in connection with another website, whether by hyperlink, framing on the Internet or otherwise. At any given time BCM’s principals may or may not have a financial interest in any or all of the securities and instruments discussed herein. At any given time BCM’s principals may or may not have a financial interest in any or all of the securities and instruments discussed herein.

US Treasury Close

 

 

 

 

Treasuries Ply Narrow Ranges on Low Volume; Dollar Vol Offered

(Bloomberg) — Treasuries finished little changed Monday, during which the 10-year yield’s daily range was less than 2.3bp and narrowed further after the European close and futures volumes were well below average; upside was capped as stocks managed small gains and Conagra dominated the corporate new issue calendar with a 7-part, $7b offering.

Yields ended slightly cheaper vs Friday’s closing levels, with 10-year around 3.16%; curve was marginally steeper with 5s30s wider by 0.3bp ahead of Conagra deal pricing

IG credit issuance slate was relatively active and also included $1.25b FedEx offering with 10- and 30-year tranches; Bloomberg survey found $25b-$30b is expected this week

Muted session saw dollar rates volatility well offered as implied vol was heavily sold; 1m10y was sold down from 117 to 115.5, over 1 annual vol from Friday’s close, New York trader said

Futures volumes sagged, with 10-year contract reaching 65% of 10-day average shortly after 3pm ET

Gilts traded heavy into London close after U.K. PM May said real progress has been made on Brexit, weighing on Treasuries heading into U.S. afternoon

In Treasury options, demand continued to emerge for downside hedges on long bond contract; flows included structures targeting 30-year yields to reach 3.75%

 

 

 


-R.W.N II, yours in 322.

Feather

Banyan Capital Management, LLC (“BCM”) is a publisher, not a registered investment advisor, and nothing in BCM’s newsletter is intended, and it should not be construed, to be investment advice. BCM’s newsletter is for informational use only. Any mention in BCM’s newsletter of a particular security, index, derivative, or other instrument is neither a recommendation by BCM to buy, sell, or hold that security, index, derivative, or other instrument, nor does it constitute an opinion of BCM (or of any of its officers, employees, agents or representatives) as to the suitability of that security, index, derivative or other instrument for any particular purpose. BCM is not in the business of giving investment advice or advice regarding the suitability for any purpose of any security, index, derivative, other instrument or trading strategy and nothing in BCM’s newsletter should be so used or relied upon. BCM is not acting as your financial advisor nor in a fiduciary capacity, with regard to any securities, index, derivative or other instrument referred to in BCM’s newsletter. Also, no representation is made concerning the tax implications in any applicable jurisdiction regarding any securities, index, derivative or other instrument and BCM is not advising you in respect of the tax implications. All opinions and estimates in the newsletters are given as of the date of their publication on the BCM’s website and are subject to change and BCM does not assume any obligation to update the newsletters or to reference any such changes. BCM hereby expressly disclaims any and all representations and warranties that: (a) the content of its newsletters is correct, accurate, complete, reliable or a guaranty of future performance; (b) any of its newsletters will be available at any particular time or place, or in any particular medium; and (c) that any omission or error in any of its newsletters will be corrected. BCM shall not be liable for any errors or omissions made in its newsletters or for any inaccuracies in its assumptions. BCM specifically disclaims liability for any losses or damages (incidental, consequential or otherwise) that may arise from the newsletters and that are either used or relied upon by anyone for any reason, including without limitation, the use of the newsletters in the preparation of any financial books and records. Although from time to time BCM’s newsletter may link to or promote others’ websites or services, BCM is not responsible for and does not control those websites or services. BCM’s newsletter is published and distributed in accordance with applicable United States and foreign copyright and other laws. Without the prior written consent of BCM, no person or entity, directly or indirectly, may copy, reproduce, recompile, decompile, disassemble, reverse engineer, distribute, publish, display, perform, modify, upload to create derivative works from, transmit, or in any way exploit all or any part of BCM’s website, its newsletter, or any other material belonging to BCM.Without the prior written consent of BCM, no person or entity, directly or indirectly, may offer all or any part of BCM’s website, its newsletter, or any other material belonging to BCM for sale, nor may any person or entity, directly or indirectly, distribute all or any part of BCM’s website, its newsletter, or any other material belonging to BCM over or by means of any medium.Without the prior written consent of BCM, no person or entity, directly or indirectly, may make all or any part of BCM’s website, its newsletter, or any other material belonging to BCM, available as part of or in connection with another website, whether by hyperlink, framing on the Internet or otherwise. At any given time BCM’s principals may or may not have a financial interest in any or all of the securities and instruments discussed herein. At any given time BCM’s principals may or may not have a financial interest in any or all of the securities and instruments discussed herein.

US Retail Sales

Mixed Retail Sales Report, but Core Spending Remains Steady 

Spending at bars and restaurants has propelled broader retail sales in recent years, but a retrenchment here in September along with smaller outlays at gas stations weighed on the headline, resulting in a 0.1% pickup.

Auto Sales Helped 

Prior to this morning’s release market participants already knew that September was a good month for manufacturers sales of autos to dealers. The annualized pace of wholesale auto sales hit 17.4 million, which tied March for the fastest clip in 2018.

Dealers were able to move inventory in September as well. Motor vehicle and parts sales jumped 0.8%. Perhaps not coincidentally, that too was the best month since March.

Core Spending Intact 

Bars and restaurants have been outperforming broader retail sales recently. But after four straight monthly gains, this category saw a 1.8% decline. The softness here combined with a 0.8% dip at gas stations help explain the headline miss.

Excluding volatile categories like auto, gas and building materials, control group retail sales actually came in a little better than expected, up 0.5% in September.


After a disappointing slowdown in August, retail sales were expected to rebound in September but rather dramatically missed with headline data rising just 0.1% MoM (against expectations of a 0.6% rise).

However, while the “control group” beat expectations – rising 0.5% MoM (vs +0.4% exp), retail sales ex-Autos retail sales actually dropped in September by 0.1%, the biggest drop since May 2017

Under the hood, 10 segments saw higher sales, 3 were lower

Gas station spending dropped (likely price related), health and personal care stores also weakened, but the biggest drop was for restaurants spending, down 1.8% – the most since 2016 (which is being blamed on the Hurricanes)… shopping and consumer activities such as restaurant visits may have been affected in North Carolina and South Carolina in the aftermath of Florence, which made landfall on Sept. 14. At the same time, past experience indicates any negative fallout tends to be temporary and reverses in subsequent months.

and to that print….


-R.W.N II, yours in 322.

feather-1

Banyan Capital Management, LLC (“BCM”) is a publisher, not a registered investment advisor, and nothing in BCM’s newsletter is intended, and it should not be construed, to be investment advice. BCM’s newsletter is for informational use only. Any mention in BCM’s newsletter of a particular security, index, derivative, or other instrument is neither a recommendation by BCM to buy, sell, or hold that security, index, derivative, or other instrument, nor does it constitute an opinion of BCM (or of any of its officers, employees, agents or representatives) as to the suitability of that security, index, derivative or other instrument for any particular purpose. BCM is not in the business of giving investment advice or advice regarding the suitability for any purpose of any security, index, derivative, other instrument or trading strategy and nothing in BCM’s newsletter should be so used or relied upon. BCM is not acting as your financial advisor nor in a fiduciary capacity, with regard to any securities, index, derivative or other instrument referred to in BCM’s newsletter. Also, no representation is made concerning the tax implications in any applicable jurisdiction regarding any securities, index, derivative or other instrument and BCM is not advising you in respect of the tax implications. All opinions and estimates in the newsletters are given as of the date of their publication on the BCM’s website and are subject to change and BCM does not assume any obligation to update the newsletters or to reference any such changes. BCM hereby expressly disclaims any and all representations and warranties that: (a) the content of its newsletters is correct, accurate, complete, reliable or a guaranty of future performance; (b) any of its newsletters will be available at any particular time or place, or in any particular medium; and (c) that any omission or error in any of its newsletters will be corrected. BCM shall not be liable for any errors or omissions made in its newsletters or for any inaccuracies in its assumptions. BCM specifically disclaims liability for any losses or damages (incidental, consequential or otherwise) that may arise from the newsletters and that are either used or relied upon by anyone for any reason, including without limitation, the use of the newsletters in the preparation of any financial books and records. Although from time to time BCM’s newsletter may link to or promote others’ websites or services, BCM is not responsible for and does not control those websites or services. BCM’s newsletter is published and distributed in accordance with applicable United States and foreign copyright and other laws. Without the prior written consent of BCM, no person or entity, directly or indirectly, may copy, reproduce, recompile, decompile, disassemble, reverse engineer, distribute, publish, display, perform, modify, upload to create derivative works from, transmit, or in any way exploit all or any part of BCM’s website, its newsletter, or any other material belonging to BCM.Without the prior written consent of BCM, no person or entity, directly or indirectly, may offer all or any part of BCM’s website, its newsletter, or any other material belonging to BCM for sale, nor may any person or entity, directly or indirectly, distribute all or any part of BCM’s website, its newsletter, or any other material belonging to BCM over or by means of any medium.Without the prior written consent of BCM, no person or entity, directly or indirectly, may make all or any part of BCM’s website, its newsletter, or any other material belonging to BCM, available as part of or in connection with another website, whether by hyperlink, framing on the Internet or otherwise. At any given time BCM’s principals may or may not have a financial interest in any or all of the securities and instruments discussed herein. At any given time BCM’s principals may or may not have a financial interest in any or all of the securities and instruments discussed herein.

 

Key Calls (Monday): Upgrades, Downgrades & Initiations

 

 

 

 

(Bloomberg) — Changes since prior close.

Upgrade

UPGRADES:

  • AcelRx (ACRX) upgraded to buy at Jefferies; PT $8
  • Activision Blizzard (ATVI) upgraded to overweight at Barclays; PT $86
  • American Eagle (AEO) raised to outperform at Wedbush; Price Target $29
  • Appian (APPN) upgraded to equal-weight at Barclays; Price Target $29
  • Arbutus Biopharma (ABUS) raised to neutral at Wedbush; Price Target $5
  • Boston Properties (BXP) upgraded to buy at Jefferies; PT $139
  • Carrizo Oil (CRZO) upgraded to buy at Jefferies; PT $28
  • Kansas City Southern (KSU) upgraded to buy at Deutsche Bank
  • Lululemon (LULU) upgraded to outperform at Wedbush
  • Marathon Oil (MRO) upgraded to outperform at BMO
  • McDonald’s (MCD) upgraded to outperform at Evercore ISI
  • Oasis Petroleum (OAS) upgraded to buy at Jefferies; PT $15
  • PNC (PNC) upgraded to buy at Deutsche Bank
  • PNC (PNC) upgraded to outperform at Bernstein; PT $158
  • Ralph Lauren (RL) upgraded to overweight at JPMorgan; PT $150
  • SRC Energy (SRCI) upgraded to outperform at Baird; PT $12
  • Spotify (SPOT) upgraded to buy at Redburn
  • Tal Education ADRs (TAL) upgraded to outperform at Macquarie
  • Teck Resources (TECK/B CN) upgraded to buy at Seaport
  • VICI Properties (VICI) upgraded to buy at BofAML; PT $23
  • Vail Resorts (MTN) upgraded to outperform at Macquarie
  • Wells Fargo (WFC) upgraded to outperform at Macquarie
  • Zoetis (ZTS) upgraded to overweight at JPMorgan; PT $100

Downgrade

DOWNGRADES:

  • Arris (ARRS) downgraded to outperform at Raymond James; PT $29
  • Axon (AAXN) downgraded to neutral at Ladenburg Thalmann
  • Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) downgraded to neutral at Credit Suisse
  • Corium (CORI) downgraded to hold at Needham
  • Delphi Technologies (DLPH) downgraded to equal-weight at Morgan Stanley
  • Imperva (IMPV) downgraded to sector weight at KeyBanc
  • Mohawk Industries (MHK) downgraded to sector perform at RBC; PT $190
  • Monster Beverage (MNST) downgraded to inline at Evercore ISI
  • NCS Multistage Holdings (NCSM) cut to market perform at Wells Fargo
  • Nucor (NUE) downgraded to neutral at Credit Suisse
  • Parker-Hannifin (PH) downgraded to underperform at Cowen; PT $150
  • Rockwell Automation (ROK) downgraded to underperform at Cowen; PT $150
  • Simpson (SSD) downgraded to neutral at Baird; PT $72
  • Steel Dynamics (STLD) downgraded to neutral at Credit Suisse
  • Tapestry (TPR) downgraded to hold at Loop Capital; PT $45
  • Western Energy Services (WRG CN) cut to market perform at Raymond James

INITIATION

INITIATIONS:

  • 21st Century Fox (FOXA) resumed overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $53
  • Argenx ADRs (ARGX BB) rated new outperform at Evercore ISI; PT $110
  • Bank7 (BSVN) rated new outperform at KBW; PT $24
  • Bilibili ADRs (BILI) rated new buy at Industrial Securities; PT $15.95
  • CBS (CBS) resumed at Morgan Stanley With Equal-weight; PT $65
  • CalAmp (CAMP) rated new hold at Jefferies; PT $22
  • CorePoint Lodging (CPLG) rated new underweight at JPMorgan; PT $16
  • CytomX (CTMX) rated new neutral at Goldman; PT $21
  • Elanco Animal Health (ELAN) rated new buy at Citi; PT $37
  • Elanco Animal Health (ELAN) rated new equal-weight at Morgan Stanley
  • Elanco Animal Health (ELAN) rated new neutral at Goldman; PT $30
  • Elanco Animal Health (ELAN) rated new outperform at Cowen; PT $38
  • Elanco Animal Health (ELAN) rated new outperform at Evercore ISI
  • Elanco Animal Health (ELAN) rated new overweight at JPMorgan; PT $38
  • Eventbrite (EB) rated new buy at Stifel; PT $32
  • Eventbrite (EB) rated new hold at SunTrust; PT $30
  • Eventbrite (EB) rated new neutral at Goldman; PT $28
  • Eventbrite (EB) rated new neutral at JPMorgan; PT $31
  • Eventbrite (EB) rated new outperform at RBC; PT $37
  • Interpublic (IPG) resumed at morgan stanley With Equal- weight; PT $24
  • KalVista (KALV) rated new buy at Stifel; PT $33
  • Viacom (VIAB) resumed at morgan stanley With Equal-weight; PT $34
  • X Financial ADRs (XYF) rated new equal-weight at Morgan Stanley

 



(Bloomberg) — U.S. stock-index futures drop with Asian and European shares. Expected data include retail sales and Empire State manufacturing. Bank of America, Schwab, and JB Hunt are among companies reporting earnings. U.S. MARKETS:

  • S&P 500 futures down 0.7% to 2,749.00
  • Brent futures up 0.7% to $80.98/bbl
  • Gold spot up 1% to $1,229.01
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.1% to 95.11

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • TOP OVERNIGHT NEWS:
    • Brexit Talks on Ice as Stalemate Throws Deadline Into Doubt
    • Trump Hints at More China Tariffs, Doesn’t Seek ‘Depression’
    • China Preparing for All Risks in Currency Policy, PBOC’s Yi Says
    • Trump Weighs Action Against Saudis as Khashoggi Denials Continue
    • Sears Goes Bankrupt, Deserted by Shoppers and Mired in Debt
    • Italy’s Populist Budget Lands in Brussels, Posing EU Dilemma
    • Merkel Faces Fresh Turmoil After Historic Bavarian Setback
    • Porsche CFO Sees Potential IPO Reap Ferrari-Like Multiples
    • Americans Snub China’s New Dollar Bond Amid Trade Tensions
    • Engie, Caisse Are Said to Plan $9 Billion Petrobras Pipeline Bid
    • Why One FX Veteran Is Predicting a Huge Drop in the Dollar
  • WEEKLY AGENDAS:
    • N.A. FINANCIALS WEEKLY AGENDA: Goldman, BofA Earnings
    • N.A. TMT WEEKLY AGENDA: IBM, LRCX, NFLX, TEAM, TSM Earnings
    • EU Pushes for Brexit Deal, Fed Minutes: Week Ahead Oct. 15-20
    • BARRON’S ROUNDUP: Rate Protection; Bank Stocks; Dell Tracker
    • N.A. INDUSTRIALS AGENDA: Canadian Pacific, Textron Earnings
    • N.A. MATERIALS WEEKLY AGENDA: AA, CCK, CLF, NUE, PPG Earnings
    • N.A. CONSUMER AGENDA: Canada Pot Legalization; PG, PM Results
    • N.A. ENERGY WEEKLY AGENDA: Kinder Morgan, Schlumberger Earnings
    • N.A. HEALTHCARE AGENDA: 3Q Earnings Kick Off, ESMO Conference
    • BofA, Brexit, Legal Cannabis, China GDP: Week Ahead in Functions
  • M&A, ECM SCHEDULED EVENTS:
    • N.A. M&A Weekly Agenda: Aetna, Avista, Fox, Perry Ellis
    • AMERICAS ECM AGENDA: Studio City IPO, Elanco Initiations
  • ANALYST ACTIONS
    • (APPN): Appian Upgraded to Equal-weight at Barclays; Price Target $29
    • (ARRS): Arris Downgraded to Outperform at Raymond James; PT $29
    • (ATVI): Activision Blizzard Upgraded to Overweight at Barclays; PT $86
    • (BILI): Bilibili ADRs Rated New Buy at Industrial Securities; PT $15.95
    • (BSVN): Bank7 Rated New Outperform at KBW; PT $24
    • (BXP): Boston Properties Upgraded to Buy at Jefferies; PT $139
    • (CAMP): CalAmp Rated New Hold at Jefferies; PT $22
    • (CPLG): CorePoint Lodging Rated New Underweight at JPMorgan; PT $16
    • (CRZO): Carrizo Oil Upgraded to Buy at Jefferies; PT $28
    • (CTMX): CytomX Rated New Neutral at Goldman; PT $21
    • (DLPH): Delphi Technologies Downgraded to Equal-weight at Morgan Stanley
    • (EB): Eventbrite Rated New Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $31
    • (EB): Eventbrite Rated New Buy at Stifel; PT $32
    • (EB): Eventbrite Rated New Outperform at RBC; PT $37
    • (EB): Eventbrite Rated New Neutral at Goldman; PT $28
    • (ELAN): Elanco Animal Health Rated New Equal-weight at Morgan Stanley
    • (ELAN): Elanco Animal Health Rated New Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $38
    • (ELAN): Elanco Animal Health Rated New Buy at Citi; PT $37
    • (ELAN): Elanco Animal Health Rated New Neutral at Goldman; PT $30
    • (IMPV): Imperva Downgraded to Sector Weight at KeyBanc
    • (KALV): KalVista Rated New Buy at Stifel; PT $33
    • (MRO): Marathon Oil Upgraded to Outperform at BMO
    • (NCSM): NCS Multistage Holdings Cut to Market Perform at Wells Fargo
    • (OAS): Oasis Petroleum Upgraded to Buy at Jefferies; PT $15
    • (RL): Ralph Lauren Upgraded to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $150
    • (SPOT): Spotify Upgraded to Buy at Redburn
    • (SRCI): SRC Energy Upgraded to Outperform at Baird; PT $12
    • (SSD): Simpson Downgraded to Neutral at Baird; PT $72
    • (XYF): X Financial ADRs Rated New Equal-weight at Morgan Stanley
    • (ZTS): Zoetis Upgraded to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $100

EARNINGS: (All ests. EPS. All times ET) Previews here

  • PRE-MKT
    • Bank of America (BAC US) 6:45am 62c
    • Schwab (SCHW US) 8:45am 65c
  • POST-MKT
    • First Defiance (FDEF US) 5:15pm 55c
    • JB Hunt (JBHT US) $1.40

GOVERNMENT:

  • Government Agenda

ECONOMIC DATA (All times ET):

  • Oct. 15-Oct. 18: Monthly Budget Statement, est. $75.0b, prior $7.9b
  • 8:30am: Empire Manufacturing, est. 20, prior 19
  • 8:30am: Retail Sales Advance MoM, est. 0.6%, prior 0.1%
  • 8:30am: Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM, est. 0.4%, prior 0.3%
  • 8:30am: Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas, est. 0.4%, prior 0.2%
  • 8:30am: Retail Sales Control Group, est. 0.4%, prior 0.1%
  • 10am: Business Inventories, est. 0.5%, prior 0.6%

CENTRAL BANKS (All times ET):

  • Nothing major scheduled

CORPORATE EVENTS:

  • Other Events: ADBE US, CUBI US, FTS CN, NVGS US, WMT US
  • Earnings Calls: 1316 HK, BAC US, JBHT US
  • Credit Card Charge-Offs: ADS US, AXP US, BAC US, C US, COF US, DFS US, JPM US, SYF US

CONFERENCES:

  • AABB Meeting – 252AB: CERS US
  • AABB Meeting – BBC15-MN4-33: CERS US
  • AABB Meeting – BBC23-MN4-33: CERS US
  • AABB Meeting – BBC4- MN4-33: CERS US
  • AABB Meeting – MN1-8: CERS US
  • AABB Meeting – NIT3- MN4-35: CERS US
  • AABB Meeting – TS25-MN3-22: CERS US
  • C-130 Hercules Operators Conference: COL US
  • CRMUG SUMMIT PHOENIX: FIVN US
  • DoD SAP IT & Cybersecurity Summit: MANT US
  • Electric Power Industry Conference: ANSS US
  • Hercules Operators Conference: COL US
  • NADCA Die Casting Congress: KWR US
  • National Business Aviation Association Convention: WNC US
  • Parexel Horizons Conference: MSFT US
  • Web In Travel Conference: TVPT US
  • WEPTAC Conference: COL US
  • WIRED25 Conference: CRM US

BLOOMBERG TV SCHEDULE:

  • 06:00 Carl B Weinberg (Chief Economist/Founder) High Frequency Economics
  • 06:10 Frederick L Cannon “Fred” (Exec VP/Chief Equity Strategist) Keefe Bruyette & Woods Inc
  • 07:10 Troy Gayeski (Partner/Senior Portfolio Mgr) Skybridge Capital
  • 07:10 Charles Peabody (Partner) Portales Partners LLC
  • 07:10 Megan E Greene (Mng Dir/Chief Economist) Manulife Asset Management
  • 07:30 Amb. James Smith (Ambassador) U.S. Amb to Saudi Arabia
  • 08:00 Anastasia Amoroso (Exec Dir/Global Investment Strategist) JPMorgan Chase Bank NA
  • 08:00 Lori Calvasina (Head:US Equity Strategy) RBC Capital Markets LLC
  • 08:00 Leigh Drogen (CEO/Founder) Estimize Inc
  • 09:00 Chad A Morganlander (Portfolio Manager) Stifel Nicolaus & Co Inc
  • 09:00 Matthew Hornbach (Mng Dir/Global Head:Interest- Rate Strategy) Morgan Stanley & Co LLC
  • 09:40 Fahmi Quadir (Chief Invsmt Officer/Founder) Safkhet Capital LP
  • 10:00 George Maris (Co-Head:US Equities) Janus Henderson Group PLC (U.S.)
  • 11:00 Joseph Stiglitz (Professor:Economics) Columbia University
  • 11:30 Carsten Brzeski (Chief Economist) ING-Diba AG
  • 12:10 Reva Bhalla Goujon (Dir:Geopolitical Analysis) Stratfor Inc
  • 12:30 Chris Wilson (Director of research) Ted Cruz Campaign
  • 12:30 Kyle Kondik (Political strategist) Univ of Virginia Center for Politics
  • 12:40 Michael Beschloss (Presidential Historian) Self
  • 13:30 Leland Miller (President) China Beige Book International
  • 13:40 Tom Jessop (Head of Corp Business Devel) Fidelity Investments
  • 14:00 Daniel J Arbess (CEO/Chief Invsmt Ofcr/Founder) Xerion Investments LLC
  • 14:10 Michael Novogratz (Chairman/CEO/Founder) Galaxy Digital
  • 14:50 Anna Ivey (Founder) Anna Ivey Consulting
  • 15:50 Douglas Ramsey “Doug” (Chief Invsmt Ofcr/Senior Analyst) Leuthold Group
  • 00:00 Brian O’Malley (Partner) Forerunner Ventures

OTHER EUROPEAN NEWS SINCE THE U.S. CLOSE:

  • Speed Trader Hudson River Chooses Dublin as Post-Brexit Home
  • Greencore to Sell Troubled U.S. Food Unit for $1.1 Billion
  • Frankfurt Trading Resumes After Open Delayed by Technical Glitch
  • S&P Upgrade Boosts Zloty and Bonds as EM Woes Threaten Rally
  • Babcock Shares Fall After Report on Boatman Capital Research
  • ECB’s Rehn Sees Phillips Curve Slowly ‘Waking From Its Coma’
  • Austria Tightens Grip on Industrial ‘Jewels’ as Buyers Circle
  • Kazakhstan Looks to Dodge a Rate Hike With Other ‘Maneuvers’

EUROPEAN ECO DATA (All times ET):

  • Nothing major scheduled

WHAT HAPPENED IN EUROPEAN MARKETS:

  • STOXX Europe 600 down 0.6% to 356.81
  • German 10Y yield fell 0.8 bps to 0.49%
  • Euro up 0.01% to $1.1561
  • Italian 10Y yield rose 1.3 bps to 3.203%
  • Spanish 10Y yield fell 0.4 bps to 1.672%

OTHER ASIA NEWS SINCE THE U.S. CLOSE:

  • SoftBank Dive Hits $22 Billion Amid Saudi Outcry, Tech Rout
  • China’s Stocks Extend $3 Trillion Rout as Consumer Firms Crumble
  • Asian Stock Markets Fall. And There’s a Slew of Reasons Why
  • Singapore Home Sales Rebound as Buyers Move Past Curbs
  • Kuroda Says First Sign of Exit Will Be Seen in Bond Yields
  • Abu Dhabi Scraps Oil Refiner Cepsa’s IPO as Investors Balk

ASIAN ECO DATA (All times ET):

  • 12:30am: (JN) Aug. Capacity Utilization MoM, actual 2.2%, prior -0.6%
  • 12:30am: (JN) Aug. Industrial Production MoM, actual 0.2%, prior 0.7%
  • 12:30am: (JN) Aug. Industrial Production YoY, actual 0.2%, prior 0.6%
  • 2:30am: (IN) Sept. Wholesale Prices YoY, actual 5.13%, est. 5.0%, prior 4.53%
  • Oct. 14-Oct. 15: (IN) Sept. Exports YoY, prior 19.21%
  • Oct. 14-Oct. 16: (CH) Sept. Money Supply M2 YoY, est. 8.3%, prior 8.2%
  • Oct. 14-Oct. 16: (CH) Sept. New Yuan Loans CNY, est. 1.36t, prior 1.28t
  • 9:30pm: (CH) Sept. PPI YoY, est. 3.5%, prior 4.1%
  • 9:30pm: (CH) Sept. CPI YoY, est. 2.5%, prior 2.3%

WHAT HAPPENED IN ASIAN MARKETS:

  • MXAP down 1.1% to 152.56
  • MXAPJ down 1% to 479.89
  • Nikkei down 1.9% to 22,271.30
  • Topix down 1.6% to 1,675.44
  • Hang Seng Index down 1.4% to 25,445.06
  • Shanghai Composite down 1.5% to 2,568.10
  • Sensex up 0.1% to 34,775.90
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 1% to 5,837.10
  • Kospi down 0.8% to 2,145.12

 

 



-R.W.N II, yours in 322.

Untitled

Banyan Capital Management, LLC (“BCM”) is a publisher, not a registered investment advisor, and nothing in BCM’s newsletter is intended, and it should not be construed, to be investment advice. BCM’s newsletter is for informational use only. Any mention in BCM’s newsletter of a particular security, index, derivative, or other instrument is neither a recommendation by BCM to buy, sell, or hold that security, index, derivative, or other instrument, nor does it constitute an opinion of BCM (or of any of its officers, employees, agents or representatives) as to the suitability of that security, index, derivative or other instrument for any particular purpose. BCM is not in the business of giving investment advice or advice regarding the suitability for any purpose of any security, index, derivative, other instrument or trading strategy and nothing in BCM’s newsletter should be so used or relied upon. BCM is not acting as your financial advisor nor in a fiduciary capacity, with regard to any securities, index, derivative or other instrument referred to in BCM’s newsletter. Also, no representation is made concerning the tax implications in any applicable jurisdiction regarding any securities, index, derivative or other instrument and BCM is not advising you in respect of the tax implications. All opinions and estimates in the newsletters are given as of the date of their publication on the BCM’s website and are subject to change and BCM does not assume any obligation to update the newsletters or to reference any such changes. BCM hereby expressly disclaims any and all representations and warranties that: (a) the content of its newsletters is correct, accurate, complete, reliable or a guaranty of future performance; (b) any of its newsletters will be available at any particular time or place, or in any particular medium; and (c) that any omission or error in any of its newsletters will be corrected. BCM shall not be liable for any errors or omissions made in its newsletters or for any inaccuracies in its assumptions. BCM specifically disclaims liability for any losses or damages (incidental, consequential or otherwise) that may arise from the newsletters and that are either used or relied upon by anyone for any reason, including without limitation, the use of the newsletters in the preparation of any financial books and records. Although from time to time BCM’s newsletter may link to or promote others’ websites or services, BCM is not responsible for and does not control those websites or services. BCM’s newsletter is published and distributed in accordance with applicable United States and foreign copyright and other laws. Without the prior written consent of BCM, no person or entity, directly or indirectly, may copy, reproduce, recompile, decompile, disassemble, reverse engineer, distribute, publish, display, perform, modify, upload to create derivative works from, transmit, or in any way exploit all or any part of BCM’s website, its newsletter, or any other material belonging to BCM.Without the prior written consent of BCM, no person or entity, directly or indirectly, may offer all or any part of BCM’s website, its newsletter, or any other material belonging to BCM for sale, nor may any person or entity, directly or indirectly, distribute all or any part of BCM’s website, its newsletter, or any other material belonging to BCM over or by means of any medium.Without the prior written consent of BCM, no person or entity, directly or indirectly, may make all or any part of BCM’s website, its newsletter, or any other material belonging to BCM, available as part of or in connection with another website, whether by hyperlink, framing on the Internet or otherwise. At any given time BCM’s principals may or may not have a financial interest in any or all of the securities and instruments discussed herein. At any given time BCM’s principals may or may not have a financial interest in any or all of the securities and instruments discussed herein.

понеделник

 

 

 

 


1580572w-1


 

79 of 94 global equity indices ended the week red…

Global Capital Markets aggregate ‘wealth’ collapsed in the last two weeks (bonds first, then stocks).

China started badly and ended worse the biggest weekly loss since Jan 2016.

European stocks were a bloodbath, closing on their lows this week (second worst week since Jan 2016) at the lowest since Jan 2017…Italy was worst on the week (and is now in a bear market).

US equity markets were beaten like a red-headed stepchild. 

Catching down to the rest of the world…

But a late Friday afternoon bounce flattered them in the end (see you Sunday night).

All US equity sectors were red on the week led by Materials and Industrials (and Financials floundered today despite the earnings)…Utes outperformed (but were still down 1.7%)

On the month so far, it’s carnage:

  • Nasdaq 100 is on course for the worst month since Nov 2008
  • Small Caps are on course for the worst month since September 2011
  • S&P is on course for the worst month since August 2015 (China Deval)

Interestingly, Value/Growth ended almost unchanged on the week…

FANGs were down on the week, but bounced today…

Tech, Consumer Discretionary, and Healthcare all together at the top as best performers of the year (but well off the highs) – all other sectors are red for 2018 with Materials worst…

US Equity breadth is a disaster…

VIX spiked almost 9 vols on the week – the biggest weekly jump since March, doubling since 10/3 as the curve massively inverts…

And the Put-Call Ratio is spiking…

HY Bonds were right… again!

Corporate bond breadth was also a catastrophe this week… as new 52-week lows spike in IG and HY…

Away from the bloodbath in stocks, bonds were notably bid… (maybe they just needed that day off on Monday?)

With 10Y Yields dropping most in 5 months (after last week’s biggest yield rise since Nov 2016).

The yield curve flattened notably on the week…

The Dollar Index fell on the week (after two straight weeks higher)

But remains rangebound..

China fixed the yuan lower every day this week, clearly signaling something to Trump, as yesterday’s epic spike in Yuan roundtripped today..

Black Gold was battered (global growth/demand and inventories) as Yellow Gold surged…

WTI Crude had its worst week since May, testing down to a $70 handle…

Gold just had its best two-week gain since January.

Silver did not manage new highs.

What does it mean when the most systemically important banks in the world are down 26% from their highs and accelerating lower?


 

Stocks

  • The S&P 500 was up 0.5 percent as of 2:05 p.m. in New York, while the Nasdaq 100 gained 1.6 percent.
  • The Stoxx Europe 600 Index fell 0.3 percent, retreating from an increase of 1 percent.
  • The MSCI All-Country World Index rose 0.7 percent.
  • The MSCI Emerging Market Index surged 2.4 percent, the first advance in more than a week and the largest jump since March 2016.

Currencies

  • The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index climbed 0.1 percent.
  • The euro declined 0.3 percent to $1.1562.
  • The British pound fell 0.6 percent.
  • The Japanese yen added 0.2 percent to 111.94 per dollar.

Bonds

  • The yield on 10-year Treasuries dipped one basis point to 3.14 percent.
  • Germany’s 10-year yield slid two basis point to 0.497 percent.
  • Britain’s 10-year yield fell four basis points to 1.633 percent.

(Bond Notes)

Treasuries gradually firmed during U.S. trading as stocks pared gains, leaving the S&P 500 with about half of its intraday advance shortly after 3pm New York time; financials led the retreat following 3Q earnings releases by JPMorgan and Citi.

Yields ended lower by ~1bp across the curve, leaving curve spreads little changed; 10-
year, was lower by 0.7bp at 3.142%, below closing levels since Oct. 2 and within 2bp of
its weekly low reached Thursday; it was ~9bp lower on the week.

Price action continued to be driven largely by equities, which gapped higher at the cash
open then pared gains led by regional banks, leaving S&P 500 more than 4% lower on
the week.

JPMorgan’s Marko Kolanovic said the worst of the rout is likely over now the selling forced by computer-driven trading strategies has run its course
Across front-end, eurodollar strip was little changed; demand for downside hedges was little changed; demand for downside hedges was back in favor with decent flows in Jun19 and Dec20 options. 

Commodities

  • The Bloomberg Commodities Index rose 0.2 percent after two days of losses.
  • West Texas Intermediate crude added 0.1 percent to $71.04 a barrel.
  • Gold decreased 0.5 percent to $1,217.82 an ounce.

 


-R.W.N II, yours in 322.

Untitled

Banyan Capital Management, LLC (“BCM”) is a publisher, not a registered investment advisor, and nothing in BCM’s newsletter is intended, and it should not be construed, to be investment advice. BCM’s newsletter is for informational use only. Any mention in BCM’s newsletter of a particular security, index, derivative, or other instrument is neither a recommendation by BCM to buy, sell, or hold that security, index, derivative, or other instrument, nor does it constitute an opinion of BCM (or of any of its officers, employees, agents or representatives) as to the suitability of that security, index, derivative or other instrument for any particular purpose. BCM is not in the business of giving investment advice or advice regarding the suitability for any purpose of any security, index, derivative, other instrument or trading strategy and nothing in BCM’s newsletter should be so used or relied upon. BCM is not acting as your financial advisor nor in a fiduciary capacity, with regard to any securities, index, derivative or other instrument referred to in BCM’s newsletter. Also, no representation is made concerning the tax implications in any applicable jurisdiction regarding any securities, index, derivative or other instrument and BCM is not advising you in respect of the tax implications. All opinions and estimates in the newsletters are given as of the date of their publication on the BCM’s website and are subject to change and BCM does not assume any obligation to update the newsletters or to reference any such changes. BCM hereby expressly disclaims any and all representations and warranties that: (a) the content of its newsletters is correct, accurate, complete, reliable or a guaranty of future performance; (b) any of its newsletters will be available at any particular time or place, or in any particular medium; and (c) that any omission or error in any of its newsletters will be corrected. BCM shall not be liable for any errors or omissions made in its newsletters or for any inaccuracies in its assumptions. BCM specifically disclaims liability for any losses or damages (incidental, consequential or otherwise) that may arise from the newsletters and that are either used or relied upon by anyone for any reason, including without limitation, the use of the newsletters in the preparation of any financial books and records. Although from time to time BCM’s newsletter may link to or promote others’ websites or services, BCM is not responsible for and does not control those websites or services. BCM’s newsletter is published and distributed in accordance with applicable United States and foreign copyright and other laws. Without the prior written consent of BCM, no person or entity, directly or indirectly, may copy, reproduce, recompile, decompile, disassemble, reverse engineer, distribute, publish, display, perform, modify, upload to create derivative works from, transmit, or in any way exploit all or any part of BCM’s website, its newsletter, or any other material belonging to BCM.Without the prior written consent of BCM, no person or entity, directly or indirectly, may offer all or any part of BCM’s website, its newsletter, or any other material belonging to BCM for sale, nor may any person or entity, directly or indirectly, distribute all or any part of BCM’s website, its newsletter, or any other material belonging to BCM over or by means of any medium.Without the prior written consent of BCM, no person or entity, directly or indirectly, may make all or any part of BCM’s website, its newsletter, or any other material belonging to BCM, available as part of or in connection with another website, whether by hyperlink, framing on the Internet or otherwise. At any given time BCM’s principals may or may not have a financial interest in any or all of the securities and instruments discussed herein. At any given time BCM’s principals may or may not have a financial interest in any or all of the securities and instruments discussed herein.