Bear (Bar), ​Pending Home Sales


Gustave Caillebotte, Normandy Landscape, Oil on Canvas




Screenshot 2018-03-28 17.53.56.png


Right, how does it go again? Oh yea, ” As goes housing, goes the economy.”

Today in the economic news, the National Association of Realtors’ pending home sales index rose 3.1% on a MoM seasonal adjusted annual rate in February, bouncing back from January’s downwardly revised 5.0% drop.



Alas, following the sin curve.


On a YoY percentage basis, PHS was down -4.1%.


Pending Homes Sales Across All Regions

PHS regained a portion of last month’s drop, rising 3.1%. Year-Ago changes have decelerated in each of the past 3 months. Winter months can be deceiving, mainly if one winter is harsh as seems to be the case in 2018.

Digressing, where are /NG straddles priced?

That being said, in January, pending sales fell in every region due to winter storms muting activity. This month, all regions rose, led by the Northeast and South, rising 10.3 and 3.0%, respectively

Screenshot 2018-03-28 17.53.13.png

Strong Demand Not Matched by Supply

Seasonal factors have distorted monthly reading in 2018, but contract signings have been slowing on trend. Strong demand and a lack of supply have made it difficult for buyers to find a home.

Rising mortgage rates may cause some homeowners to remain in place to keep their current low mortgage rate. A growing share of consumers feels that now is an excellent time to sell a house, which hopefully will bring more supply to the market this spring.

  • United States MBA Mortgage Applications was reported at 4.8% in 23/March from -1.1% in the previous period. It was expected at -0.34%. 


  • United States MBA 30-year Mortgage Rate was reported at 4.69% in 23/March from 4.68in the previous period. It was expected at 4.67%.


Related to the featured picture. Which could be a euphemism for the bearish print in PHS today.  And I know the meme is derivative of Mr. Muir’s massive photo meme library, in which case, this only is a homage to him and my aspirations to write about markets like him.



National Association of Realtors 

Trading Economics 

Wells Fargo Economics Group 

The MacroTourist 



Leave a Reply

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.