BLS, Employment Situation Report (ESR). corvus oculum corvi non eruit


” The first move on the NFP number, is the wrong move.”

Goldman was the closet with their estimate of 225k.

Via Mr. White of the Heisenberg Report Jobs Report Mixed As Headline Beats, Earnings Miss

“We estimate nonfarm payrolls rose 225k in November, compared to a consensus of +200k. November job growth likely benefited from additional normalization in hurricane-affected regions. Additionally, the early Thanksgiving this year is likely to boost retail job growth, as relatively more of the holiday hiring will occur before the survey week. The arrival of over 200k Puerto Ricans in Florida (following Hurricane Maria) could also increase payrolls this month. We estimate a stable unemployment rate (4.1%), as the downward trend (-0.3pp over the last three months) seems due for a pause. For average hourly earnings, we estimate +0.3% with upside risk, reflecting somewhat favorable calendar effects and a boost from the unwind of hurricane-related distortions.” – Goldman

Barclays 200k

Bank of America Merrill Lynch 210k


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Review Notes

Employment Situation 

Market Sensitivity: Very High

What Is It: The most eagerly awaited news on the economy. Are jobs being created? What’s the latest unemployemnt rate? It has great economic and political significance,

Release Time: 8:30 a.m. (ET); generally announed on the first Friday of each month and covers the month just concluded.

Frequency: Monthly

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Department of Labor

Revisions: Can be major. Revisions often go back two months with each release. The goverment does benchmarj changes for the establihment (or payroll) survey every June. Benchmark changes for the household survey are rare- about every ten years or so.

➪ ‘The Secrets of Economic Indicators‘, by Bernard Baumohl


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Labor Force Particapation Rate = 62.6 from 63.1 in September 

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Unemployment Rate = 4.6 from 4.2 in September 

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Average Weekly Hours = 0.1 hour to 34.5 hours in November

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Average Hourly Earnings = rose by $ 0.05 

“In November, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 5 cents to $26.55. Over the year, average hourly earnings have risen by 64 cents, or 2.5 percent. Average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees rose by 5 cents to $22.24 in November.” – BLS

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Non-Farm Payrolls = 228,000

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Wages vs. Inflation. This is phillips curve out of date?




– R.W.N II

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