The Intelligent Investor’s Guide to the U.S. Housing Market – Hedgeye

Screen Shot 2018-12-12 at 1.36.38 PM

_HEDGEYE_Housing_Buy_or_Sell_FEB2018

Screen Shot 2018-12-12 at 1.36.44 PMScreen Shot 2018-12-12 at 1.48.32 PM

 

 


Screen Shot 2018-12-12 at 12.04.29 PM

Banyan Capital Management, LLC (“BCM”) is a publisher, not a registered investment advisor, and nothing in BCM’s newsletter is intended, and it should not be construed, to be investment advice. BCM’s newsletter is for informational use only. Any mention in BCM’s newsletter of a particular security, index, derivative, or other instrument is neither a recommendation by BCM to buy, sell, or hold that security, index, derivative, or other instrument, nor does it constitute an opinion of BCM (or of any of its officers, employees, agents or representatives) as to the suitability of that security, index, derivative or other instrument for any particular purpose. BCM is not in the business of giving investment advice or advice regarding the suitability for any purpose of any security, index, derivative, other instrument or trading strategy and nothing in BCM’s newsletter should be so used or relied upon. BCM is not acting as your financial advisor nor in a fiduciary capacity, with regard to any securities, index, derivative or other instrument referred to in BCM’s newsletter. Also, no representation is made concerning the tax implications in any applicable jurisdiction regarding any securities, index, derivative or other instrument and BCM is not advising you in respect of the tax implications. All opinions and estimates in the newsletters are given as of the date of their publication on the BCM’s website and are subject to change and BCM does not assume any obligation to update the newsletters or to reference any such changes. BCM hereby expressly disclaims any and all representations and warranties that: (a) the content of its newsletters is correct, accurate, complete, reliable or a guaranty of future performance; (b) any of its newsletters will be available at any particular time or place, or in any particular medium; and (c) that any omission or error in any of its newsletters will be corrected. BCM shall not be liable for any errors or omissions made in its newsletters or for any inaccuracies in its assumptions. BCM specifically disclaims liability for any losses or damages (incidental, consequential or otherwise) that may arise from the newsletters and that are either used or relied upon by anyone for any reason, including without limitation, the use of the newsletters in the preparation of any financial books and records. Although from time to time BCM’s newsletter may link to or promote others’ websites or services, BCM is not responsible for and does not control those websites or services. BCM’s newsletter is published and distributed in accordance with applicable United States and foreign copyright and other laws. Without the prior written consent of BCM, no person or entity, directly or indirectly, may copy, reproduce, recompile, decompile, disassemble, reverse engineer, distribute, publish, display, perform, modify, upload to create derivative works from, transmit, or in any way exploit all or any part of BCM’s website, its newsletter, or any other material belonging to BCM.Without the prior written consent of BCM, no person or entity, directly or indirectly, may offer all or any part of BCM’s website, its newsletter, or any other material belonging to BCM for sale, nor may any person or entity, directly or indirectly, distribute all or any part of BCM’s website, its newsletter, or any other material belonging to BCM over or by means of any medium.Without the prior written consent of BCM, no person or entity, directly or indirectly, may make all or any part of BCM’s website, its newsletter, or any other material belonging to BCM, available as part of or in connection with another website, whether by hyperlink, framing on the Internet or otherwise. At any given time BCM’s principals may or may not have a financial interest in any or all of the securities and instruments discussed herein. At any given time BCM’s principals may or may not have a financial interest in any or all of the securities and instruments discussed herein.

 

 

 


 

Advertisements

But the Edge is still out There…..


Picture1.png


Neurophysiology of the sense of meaning.

The feeling of meaning is an instinct, not a thought; more specifically it’s not a secondary consequence of rational processes. It is way more profound than that; the search of meaning drives rationality itself.

Imagine there is an optimal load that a person can bear. If you exceed that optimal load it is to your determent & work to little there is no gain in the search.

You have to find that “thin edge,” where you are competent at what you are doing but you’re pushing yourself. That’s where meaning lies.

Competent and out of undue danger but pushing yourself enough whereby you are continuing your development.

That is extinct of meaning.

Which, to some researchers is the consequence of the interactions between the right & left hemispheres of the brain & also, the implications between the negative emotion systems (anxiety & pain) that regulate you, e.g., protect you from harm & the exploratory play systems that drive you forward.

Optimally you want the exploratory & play systems to drive you forward but at the same time, you want the emotional regulatory system to protect you from overexposing yourself to danger or undue harm.

If you can get the balance between the two systems optimally right than you arrive at the maximal point of challenge or meaning to one’s life.
A side-effect may include alertness because your positive emotional systems are firing and driving your forward. Statements may consist of, “This is worth doing!”

Meanwhile, your negative emotions are alert, reiterating mantras of caution and the dangers of complacency. Internal statements may include: “Stay awake, & Be Careful!”

At the point of maximal gain, & the sense of meaning puts you on the border of chaos & order.

Too much order means you’re just practicing what you already know resulting in stupefaction & stagnation; conversely, to much chaos means an increased probability of encountering danger.

What did Dr. Thompson say about “ the edge”?

“The Edge…There is no honest way to explain it because the only people who really know where it is are the ones who have gone over. The others-the living-are those who pushed their control as far as they felt they could handle it, and then pulled back, or slowed down, or did whatever they had to when it came time to choose between Now and Later.

Screen Shot 2018-12-05 at 4.57.54 PM.png

― Hunter S. Thompson, Hell’s Angels: A Strange and Terrible Saga

 


-R.W.N II, yours in 322.

 

 



 

[1] Screen Shot 2018-12-05 at 4.54.02 PMThe three meanings of meaning in life- Distinguishing coherence, purpose, and significance

Emerging Markets Equity Strategy – JPM

 

Capture

Key Trades and Risks 2019 Year Ahead – Emerging Markets Equity Strategy

 

Screen Shot 2018-11-13 at 12.01.49 PM.png

1. CHINA’S DRAG ON THE GLOBAL ECONOMY INTENSIFIES

The Caixin Composite PMI dropped a full -1.6pts in OCT to 50.5, which represents the lowest reading since the global deflationary lows of mid-2016.

China’s OCT Headline PPI data (↓ -30bps to 3.3% YoY; breaking down from a TRENDING perspective) further underscores the disinflationary impulse upon the global economy stemming from our #ChinaSlowing theme.

The CNY is down -9% vs. the USD over the trailing six months and will be down -8% YoY in 1H19E assuming no change to the current quarterly average exchange rate, which means the inflationary impulse to import prices stemming from a full implementation to 25% tariffs on the $541.6B in goods the U.S. projected to import from China in 2018E will be more than offset by annualized dollar strength during that interval.

Chinese policymakers are officially panicking with respect to the growth outlook (e.g. strict lending quotas for private firms), but we continue to believe they remain fairly constrained on the monetary policy front until we see a dovish pivot out of the Federal Reserve – likely a mid-to-late Q1 event.

 

 

ChinaDollarDebtExposureHedgeye_Structural_Economic_Headwinds_Within_the_Chinese_Economy_9-14-18

Beijing%20Is%2china0Going%20To%20Need%20A%20Bigger%20Boat%20To%20Rescue%20#OldChina.png

#ShortEM (introduced 1/4/18 under the title, “#UnderweightEM”):

  • Beijing Remains Handcuffed (10/18): With respect to Chinese monetary policy, we obviously track a deluge daily/weekly/monthly data – e.g. OMO, MTLF, RRR, BPR, 7DRR, SHIBOR, etc. – but for those of you who want to boil it all down to what it actually means for economic growth on the mainland, there’s one number you need to track on a monthly basis – i.e. the annual growth rate of bank loans.

ChinaBankLoansOutstandingYoYChinaCruiseShipvs.CanoeAnalysisChinaPolicyMonitor

 


-R.W.N II, yours in 322.

Picture1.png

Banyan Capital Management, LLC (“BCM”) is a publisher, not a registered investment advisor, and nothing in BCM’s newsletter is intended, and it should not be construed, to be investment advice. BCM’s newsletter is for informational use only. Any mention in BCM’s newsletter of a particular security, index, derivative, or other instrument is neither a recommendation by BCM to buy, sell, or hold that security, index, derivative, or other instrument, nor does it constitute an opinion of BCM (or of any of its officers, employees, agents or representatives) as to the suitability of that security, index, derivative or other instrument for any particular purpose. BCM is not in the business of giving investment advice or advice regarding the suitability for any purpose of any security, index, derivative, other instrument or trading strategy and nothing in BCM’s newsletter should be so used or relied upon. BCM is not acting as your financial advisor nor in a fiduciary capacity, with regard to any securities, index, derivative or other instrument referred to in BCM’s newsletter. Also, no representation is made concerning the tax implications in any applicable jurisdiction regarding any securities, index, derivative or other instrument and BCM is not advising you in respect of the tax implications. All opinions and estimates in the newsletters are given as of the date of their publication on the BCM’s website and are subject to change and BCM does not assume any obligation to update the newsletters or to reference any such changes. BCM hereby expressly disclaims any and all representations and warranties that: (a) the content of its newsletters is correct, accurate, complete, reliable or a guaranty of future performance; (b) any of its newsletters will be available at any particular time or place, or in any particular medium; and (c) that any omission or error in any of its newsletters will be corrected. BCM shall not be liable for any errors or omissions made in its newsletters or for any inaccuracies in its assumptions. BCM specifically disclaims liability for any losses or damages (incidental, consequential or otherwise) that may arise from the newsletters and that are either used or relied upon by anyone for any reason, including without limitation, the use of the newsletters in the preparation of any financial books and records. Although from time to time BCM’s newsletter may link to or promote others’ websites or services, BCM is not responsible for and does not control those websites or services. BCM’s newsletter is published and distributed in accordance with applicable United States and foreign copyright and other laws. Without the prior written consent of BCM, no person or entity, directly or indirectly, may copy, reproduce, recompile, decompile, disassemble, reverse engineer, distribute, publish, display, perform, modify, upload to create derivative works from, transmit, or in any way exploit all or any part of BCM’s website, its newsletter, or any other material belonging to BCM.Without the prior written consent of BCM, no person or entity, directly or indirectly, may offer all or any part of BCM’s website, its newsletter, or any other material belonging to BCM for sale, nor may any person or entity, directly or indirectly, distribute all or any part of BCM’s website, its newsletter, or any other material belonging to BCM over or by means of any medium.Without the prior written consent of BCM, no person or entity, directly or indirectly, may make all or any part of BCM’s website, its newsletter, or any other material belonging to BCM, available as part of or in connection with another website, whether by hyperlink, framing on the Internet or otherwise. At any given time BCM’s principals may or may not have a financial interest in any or all of the securities and instruments discussed herein. At any given time BCM’s principals may or may not have a financial interest in any or all of the securities and instruments discussed herein.

Revenons à nos moutons !


Screen Shot 2018-08-04 at 9.11.03 PM

IMG_1646.jpg

 

Screen Shot 2018-11-09 at 9.26.35 PM.png

Screen Shot 2018-08-04 at 9.11.33 PM


Screen Shot 2018-11-09 at 9.27.37 PM.png

 

Screen Shot 2018-08-04 at 9.11.43 PM


 

Screen Shot 2018-08-04 at 9.11.48 PM


(Bloomberg) — Equities faded amid a fresh batch of weak earnings from the technology sector as flagging growth in China revived global growth concerns. The PBOC said it’ll tweak its policy in a sign that trade tensions with the U.S. are hurting the world’s second-largest economy.

The dollar gained as did the yen while emerging markets fell as investors abandoned risky assets.

Mexico’s peso fell and its bonds slid after the President-elect introduced a bill to eliminate certain fees and commissions charged by banks. Cable extended losses after Jo Johnson resigned as transport minister amid frustration with Brexit negotiations.

Treasuries rose shrugging off a jump in producer prices for October, the most since 2012.

Elsewhere, precious metals fell while crude touched the lowest level since February as it headed for the longest losing streak on record.

Key Headlines:

  • EU is said to require more movement from U.K. on Brexit backstop
  • Trump telling people he wants to replace Ross by year- end: CNBC
  • McConnell says no indication Trump wants to dismiss Mueller
  • Consumer sentiment remained virtually unchanged in early November

 

Financials

(Bloomberg) — Financial stocks were down today, performing better than about half of the market. Almost half of major U.S. banks are failing to satisfy the expectations of the Federal Reserve. Prudential’s PGIM likes U.S. bank debt for recession protection. And American Express is the first foreign payment company to be granted access to mainland China. Top Stories:

  • Canaccord Genuity Group (CCORF -2.1%) named Dennis Lafferty as managing director in the U.S. fixed-income division as the Canadian-based bank boosts its markets business in corporate debt. He will be focusing on distressed debt. Most recently, he co-led the U.S. distressed and high-yield trading teams at HSBC Holdings (HSBC -1.7%) until June of 2017.
  • More than 40 percent of major U.S. lenders are failing to satisfy the Federal Reserve’s expectations in key areas of risk management, the central bank said Friday in a report that reveals the regulator’s overall assessment of the industry. The Fed’s inaugural Supervision and Regulation Report highlights a number of positives, but it also shows how risks may now come from mismanagement, cyber attacks and failures to protect the banking system. Those faults are contributing to so many firms failing to make the top two of the five categories that measure a bank’s strength.
  • The Federal Reserve’s vice chairman for supervision Randal Quarles said Friday that a planned overhaul of the annual exams won’t be in place until at least 2020. But, as a positive for Wall Street, he said the revamp could target the issues that have long frustrated bankers. These include the possibility of having dividend and share buyback plans publicly rejected, the testing process’s lack of transparency and reducing the stigma of failing what’s known as the qualitative part of the assessments.
  • Prudential Financial (PRU -1.2%) investment unit said the bonds of the biggest U.S. banks are a good investment if you are worried about a recession. The firm likes the 10-year notes of financial firms as a robust bet heading into a potential downturn in the world’s largest economy, according to Chief Investment Officer Mike Lillard. “The big money center banks in the U.S. will prove to be very defensive investments in the next economic downturn,” he said, adding that there is a significant probability of a recession in 2020 or 2021.
  • U.S. taxpayers could gain as much as $125 billion if Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are freed from government control under a revised blueprint released Friday by investment banking firm Moelis & Co. The proposal, which is backed by investors including Paulson & Co. and Blackstone Group LP, could also deliver a windfall for the shareholders in the two mortgage-finance giants.
  • Goldman Sachs Group (GS -3.9%), JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM -1.0%), Morgan Stanley (MS -1.5%) and Citigroup (C -3.0%) have presented plans to increase the assets held through their Frankfurt subsidiaries tenfold after the U.K.’s exit from the EU to comply with requirements, several people briefed on the matter said. They are planning to shift assets to Frankfurt because of Brexit, a move that would see their balance sheets in Germany grow to about 250 billion euros ($283 billion), they said. The final size of the assets may change depending on the outcome of Brexit talks, the people said.
  • American Express (AXP -0.2%) said the People’s Bank of China approved its license to become the first foreign payments company allowed to build a network in the nation. AmEx formed a joint venture with Chinese fintech- services firm LianLian that will let charges on American Express-branded cards be cleared and settled in China, the company said Friday in a statement.

Ratings

  • Columbia Banking Upgraded to Outperform at KBW; Price Target $45
  • Synovus Upgraded to Outperform at KBW; Price Target $55

M&A / ECM

  • Equistone Gets Loan From BNP, SocGen for Courir Acquisition
  • Great-West Is Said to Hire Goldman for $1 Billion U.S. Unit Sale
  • Morgan Stanley Has Shares, Acceptances for 58% of VTG
  • Third Point Takes New Stake in American Express in 3Q: Letter

Movers

  • U.S. Financials (S5FINL)
    • E*Trade Financial (ETFC) -1.7%
    • BlackRock (BLK) -1.8%
    • Raymond James (RJF) -1.8%
    • Schwab (SCHW) -2%
    • Regions Financial (RF) -2.4%
    • Franklin Resources (BEN) -2.4%
    • Invesco (IVZ) -2.8%
    • Citigroup (C) -3%
    • Goldman Sachs (GS) -3.9%
    • Brighthouse Financial (BHF) -4.2%
  • KBW Bank Index (BKX)
    • BB&T (BBT) +1.3%
    • Bank of New York Mellon (BK) -1.1%
    • Northern Trust (NTRS) -1.2%
    • Bank of America (BAC) -1.2%
    • SVB Financial (SIVB) -1.3%
    • State Street (STT) -1.5%
    • New York Community Bancorp (NYCB) -1.8%
    • Regions Financial (RF) -2.4%
    • Citigroup (C) -3%
  • KBW Regional Banking (KRX)
    • Boston Private (BPFH) +1.7%
    • Provident Financial (PFS) -1.6%
    • East West Bancorp (EWBC) -1.6%
    • First Midwest Bancorp (FMBI) -1.7%
    • Hope Bancorp (HOPE) -1.7%
    • United Bankshares (UBSI) -1.7%
    • Brookline Bancorp (BRKL) -1.8%
    • Washington Federal (WAFD) -1.9%
    • Sterling Bancorp (STL) -2%
    • Bank OZK (OZK) -2.5%
  • U.S. Asset Management (S5AMGT)
    • Bank of New York Mellon (BK) -1.1%
    • Northern Trust (NTRS) -1.2%
    • T. Rowe (TROW) -1.4%
    • State Street (STT) -1.5%
    • Affiliated Managers (AMG) -1.5%
    • Ameriprise (AMP) -1.6%
    • BlackRock (BLK) -1.8%
    • Franklin Resources (BEN) -2.4%
    • Invesco (IVZ) -2.8%

 

Screen Shot 2018-08-04 at 9.11.53 PM


(Bloomberg) — Treasuries rallied over the U.S. morning session and held most gains into the close as stocks dropped, led by tech names, and flagging growth in China revived global growth concerns. Bund rally into the London close had initially supported Treasury gains, producing bull-steepening move.

  • Yields higher by 3.5bp to 5bp across the curve, with 7- to 10- year sectors leading gains, as 5s30s steepened by ~0.6bp and 2s10s30s fly richened by around 2bp
    • UST 10-year yields at 3.19%, or toward bottom of weekly range; leading into London close, spread vs Germany rose back through 279bp as stops sent bunds higher, outperforming Treasuries
  • Following a strong U.S. PPI print, Treasuries started bull-steepening move; no notable flows were cited, suggesting some of long end weakness may have been ahead of expectations for a busy IG issuance slate next week
    • Small clips of eurodollar sales were also seen after data, including 15k Mar20 at 96.71 and 15k Jun19 at 96.91
    • Eurodollar strip bear steepened, with greens and blues lower by up to 4.5bp shortly after 3pm ET
  • Flurry of activity seen across 10-year Treasury options, keeping with recent theme of selling Dec18 and Jan19 calls vs buying calls further out
    • Flows included around 77k TYZ8 118/119 call spread sold between 20 to 15 ticks, and buying of TYH9 122/123.5 1×2 call spread

 


Screen Shot 2018-08-04 at 9.11.59 PM


(Bloomberg) — Primary market conditions improved for borrowers this week, achieving constructive prints and paying less than half of what they anted up in new issue concessions last week. Investor demand climbed, enabling dealers to push deal spreads tighter throughout the marketing process.

  • Weekly supply was robust as high-grade borrowers printed $22b, topping market expectations calling for $15b-$20b

This Week 4.4

Last Week 9.3

YTD NIC  4.4

  • Broader market conditions helped buoy an already improving credit landscape
    • The Bloomberg Barclays Corporate IG OAS index has narrowed in November, closing last night at +114
    • A split U.S. Congress realized after Tuesday’s midterm elections is the best- case scenario for investment-grade bond spreads, a Bank of America analyst wrote in a note dated Nov. 7
    • Corporate IG funds also returned to inflows with $1.85b added this week vs the large outflow of $3.57b the previous week, according to Lipper Fund Flows data
  • That said there were some clear headwinds
    • Volkswagen Group of America’s 10y is trading 15bps wider
    • MPLX priced its 30y ~15bps back of secondaries as credit curves may be beginning to widen in the long end for lower-rated IG credits
    • The M&A pipeline for the remainder of 2018 is dwindling
      • Takeda Pharmaceutical’s acquisition of Shire plc may be predominantly financed in euros, while Broadcom Inc. recently priced two $9b term loans for its purchase of CA Inc.
  • Early supply projections for the holiday-shortened week ahead are $30b-$35b
    • Real estate investment trust supply is said to be heavier following the NAREIT conference
    • DowDuPont is holding investor calls Tuesday

THIS WEEK’S IG ANALYSES

  • Utilities Pay Low Concessions Ahead of Midterms
  • Waste Connections Upsizes as Primary Trades Improve
  • The Big Primary Day Came After U.S. Midterm Vote
  • ING Brought $1.25b Green Bond Ahead of the FOMC

ISSUANCE STATS

  • Weekly volume $22.000b vs $17.550b last week
  • Week of Nov. 5-9, 2018 Spreadsheet
  • MTD volume $29.350b
  • October volume $85.875b
  • YTD volume $1.011t

Screen Shot 2018-08-04 at 9.12.05 PM

 


 

Screen Shot 2018-08-04 at 9.12.10 PM


Screen Shot 2018-11-09 at 9.27.58 PM.png

Screen Shot 2018-11-09 at 6.58.29 PM

Screen Shot 2018-11-09 at 6.50.34 PM


 

Screen Shot 2018-11-09 at 6.51.00 PM

Screen Shot 2018-11-09 at 6.51.18 PM

 

Screen Shot 2018-11-09 at 6.49.12 PM

(Bloomberg) — BP’s Whiting, Ind., refinery expects to complete turnarounds on its biggest crude unit and coker and return them to normal operations as soon as the end of next week, person familiar with operations says. MARKET NEWS:

  • BP Cherry Point Shuts Units for Maintenance Activity: Agency
  • Oil’s Rapid Run of Declines Kicks Up Pressure as OPEC Gathers
  • Hedge Funds Cut Nymex Diesel, Gasoline Bets
  • EUROPE OIL PRODUCTS: Fuel Oil Cracks Jump; Gasoline Off Lows
  • Koch Sees Having Gasoline Available at Veracruz Terminal in Oct.
  • Gasoline Pulls Oil Prices Into Reverse: Liam Denning
  • One Last Flurry of Additions as Stockpiles Primed for Winter
  • Delta Fuel Tax Break Gets Another Run at Georgia Legislature

PRICES: Atlantic Coast differentials vs Nymex as of 4:30pm ET

  • 83.5 CBOB +0.38c to Nymex +1.13c
  • 84 RBOB +0.38c to +1.38c
  • ULSD -0.08c to +0.2c
  • Jet fuel +0.75c to -2.75c

Gulf Coast differentials vs Nymex as of 4:30pm ET

  • 85 CBOB -0.25c to -7.38c
  • 84 RBOB -0.88c to -6.88c
  • ULSD -1c to -8.25c
  • Jet fuel -1.23c to -11.13c

Oil Analytics refining margins (as of prior session)

  • East Coast Forcados cracking at $10.84/bbl
  • Gulf Coast Maya coking -66c to $7.49/bbl

Nymex futures and cracks

  • Gasoline December futures -2.29c to $1.6214/gal.
  • Diesel December futures +0.45c to $2.1728/gal.
  • 3-2-1 front month crack spread -10c to $15.63/bbl

Gasoline Arbitrage

  • Front-month U.S.-Europe RBOB-Eurobob swap spread +0.15c to -1.7c/gal

Baltic Exchange freight

  • TC2 U.K./Continent-USAC (37k tons) +2.78 WS points to WS 154.72
  • TC14 USGC-U.K./Continent (38k tons) -3.44 WS points to WS 118.75

 

Screen Shot 2018-11-09 at 6.50.04 PM

(Bloomberg) — Copper posted the biggest weekly loss in almost three months as industrial metals tumbled on a stronger dollar and concern over the outlook for demand in China, the world’s biggest user. Chinese data indicated softer producer-price gains and weak car sales.

The dollar rose to the highest in more than a week, making metals more expensive for buyers using other currencies. Signs of tight supplies have failed to revive metals demand, with copper losing as much as 2 percent Friday even after a report this week showed output at the largest producer slumped.

Drivers

The dollar headed for the highest close since Oct. 31, rallying for a second day after the Fed  signaled  for additional hikes next month and in 2019 Tame  Chinese Inflation  Frees PBOC’s Hand as Economy Loses Steam Codelco customers  will see fees to have metal delivered to southern U.S. ports climb 20% next year, people familiar said, in a sign of robust demand.

The LME Cash to 3-month zinc  spread  was at $63/ton on Friday, near the biggest backwardation in a year, in a sign of a tightening market LME zinc  stockpiles  fell for a 26th day on Friday, approaching 10-year lows seen in March The global nickel market isn’t as tight as it  looks , analysts at Citigroup Inc. say in an emailed note

Prices

LME  copper  -1.6% to settle at $6,056/ton at 5:51pm in London Metal posts 3.6% weekly drop. 

Aluminum, lead, nickel and tin decline; zinc rises.

Commentary

An escalation of trade tensions is becoming the new base case for most commodity investors, Citigroup says in emailed note, and there are doubts about effectiveness of Chinese policy stimulus “As far as today’s market action is concerned, the bears seem to be back with renewed vengeance,”  Edward Meir , an analyst at INTL FCStone, says in note to clients

Screen Shot 2018-11-09 at 6.50.23 PM

 

 


-R.W.N II, yours in 322.

Banyan Capital Management, LLC (“BCM”) is a publisher, not a registered investment advisor, and nothing in BCM’s newsletter is intended, and it should not be construed, to be investment advice. BCM’s newsletter is for informational use only. Any mention in BCM’s newsletter of a particular security, index, derivative, or other instrument is neither a recommendation by BCM to buy, sell, or hold that security, index, derivative, or other instrument, nor does it constitute an opinion of BCM (or of any of its officers, employees, agents or representatives) as to the suitability of that security, index, derivative or other instrument for any particular purpose. BCM is not in the business of giving investment advice or advice regarding the suitability for any purpose of any security, index, derivative, other instrument or trading strategy and nothing in BCM’s newsletter should be so used or relied upon. BCM is not acting as your financial advisor nor in a fiduciary capacity, with regard to any securities, index, derivative or other instrument referred to in BCM’s newsletter. Also, no representation is made concerning the tax implications in any applicable jurisdiction regarding any securities, index, derivative or other instrument and BCM is not advising you in respect of the tax implications. All opinions and estimates in the newsletters are given as of the date of their publication on the BCM’s website and are subject to change and BCM does not assume any obligation to update the newsletters or to reference any such changes. BCM hereby expressly disclaims any and all representations and warranties that: (a) the content of its newsletters is correct, accurate, complete, reliable or a guaranty of future performance; (b) any of its newsletters will be available at any particular time or place, or in any particular medium; and (c) that any omission or error in any of its newsletters will be corrected. BCM shall not be liable for any errors or omissions made in its newsletters or for any inaccuracies in its assumptions. BCM specifically disclaims liability for any losses or damages (incidental, consequential or otherwise) that may arise from the newsletters and that are either used or relied upon by anyone for any reason, including without limitation, the use of the newsletters in the preparation of any financial books and records. Although from time to time BCM’s newsletter may link to or promote others’ websites or services, BCM is not responsible for and does not control those websites or services. BCM’s newsletter is published and distributed in accordance with applicable United States and foreign copyright and other laws. Without the prior written consent of BCM, no person or entity, directly or indirectly, may copy, reproduce, recompile, decompile, disassemble, reverse engineer, distribute, publish, display, perform, modify, upload to create derivative works from, transmit, or in any way exploit all or any part of BCM’s website, its newsletter, or any other material belonging to BCM.Without the prior written consent of BCM, no person or entity, directly or indirectly, may offer all or any part of BCM’s website, its newsletter, or any other material belonging to BCM for sale, nor may any person or entity, directly or indirectly, distribute all or any part of BCM’s website, its newsletter, or any other material belonging to BCM over or by means of any medium.Without the prior written consent of BCM, no person or entity, directly or indirectly, may make all or any part of BCM’s website, its newsletter, or any other material belonging to BCM, available as part of or in connection with another website, whether by hyperlink, framing on the Internet or otherwise. At any given time BCM’s principals may or may not have a financial interest in any or all of the securities and instruments discussed herein. At any given time BCM’s principals may or may not have a financial interest in any or all of the securities and instruments discussed herein.