Daily Note

 

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Global Risk Monitor 

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Today’s Economic Data Around the World 

Mexico Wholesale/Retail Sale YOY Total Return NSA

789

Japan All Industrial Activity MoM SA  

678                                         

Poland Retail Sales YoY                                                         567

South Africa CPI YoY     

456

Taiwan Unemployment Rate sa                                                    

345

Croatia Unemployment Rate                                                       \

234

Croatia Gross Wages Real YoY                                                   

123

 Ireland WPI YoY                                                                

9999

MBA US US Mortgage Market Index Weekly % Change SA Old Meth                    

888 

STCA Canada Retail Sales Ex Motor & Recreational Vehicles MoM SA               

7777

Russia CPI WoW Daily                                                           

555

Russia CPI Weekly Year-to-Date%                                                

6666                      

US Existing Homes Sales SAAR                                                   

333

Argentina Trade Balance

222

11

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In US Equity Markets the S&P 500 marked its longest bull-market run with a dip on Wednesday as President Donald Trump’s political position was threatened by the legal woes of two former advisers and ahead of trade talks and the Federal Reserve’s minutes.

The S&P 500 was down 0.15 percent, at 2,858.66 and the Nasdaq Composite was flat. Nine of the 11 major S&P sectors fell, with the trade-sensitive industrial sector down 0.71 percent.

SPX bullish sentiment is at  75%

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Nasdaq bullish sentiment is at 68% and divergent from index price

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Urban Outfitters rose 7.3 percent and furniture maker La-Z-Boy jumped 12.4 percent after their results topped Wall Street estimates.

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In European Equity Markets the pan-European STOXX 600 closed around the flat-line, with the majority of sectors closing flat or higher. Most peripheral markets finished in the black. Europe’s autos stocks were the worst performers Wednesday, down 3.47 percent.

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Shares of Schaeffler, Michelin and Faurecia were all trading lower Wednesday, after Germany’s Continental issued a profit warning and dragged other auto supplier stocks into negative territory. Continental was trading 13.68 percent lower.

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In Currency Markets the U.S. dollar continued its slide on Wednesday as political pressure on President Donald Trump increased, and the euro hit a two-week high as investors rushed to cover short positions.

US Dollar bullish sentiment is at 72% down from the extreme high of 96%

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The euro gained 0.16 percent to $1.159, close to the two-week high of $1.162 touched earlier in the session. Minutes of the Fed’s last meeting, due later on Wednesday, were expected to confirm it is on course to raise rates twice more this year.

Euro bullish sentiment is at 33% and trying to lift again.

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The dollar moved sideways against the Japanese yen at 110.44 yen. It had weakened to 109.76 overnight, its lowest since late June.

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In Energy Markets oil prices rose 2 percent on Wednesday, with Brent crude futures hitting a two-week high, after data showed a larger-than-expected draw in U.S. crude inventories due to strong refiner demand and as U.S. sanctions on Iran signaled tightening supplies. Brent crude futures rose $1.48, or 2 percent, to $74.11 a barrel.

The global benchmark reached $74.48 during the session, the highest since Aug. 8. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rose $1.49 to $67.33 a barrel, a 2.3 percent gain.


Crude bullish sentiment is at 73% and bouncing from 60% level

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Ethanol production for the week ending August 17 averaged 1.073 million barrels per day. This is up 0.09% vs. last week and up 2.00% vs. last year. Total Ethanol production for the week was 7.511 million barrels. Stocks as of August 17 were 23.259 million barrels. This is up 1.05% vs. last week and up 8.14% vs. last year. Corn used in last week’s production is estimated at 111.9 million bushels. This crop year’s cumulative corn used for ethanol production for this crop year is 5.57 billion bushels. Corn use needs to average 25.806 million bushels per week to meet this crop year’s USDA estimate of 5.6 billion bushels. – EIA 
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Gold bullish sentiment is at 23% and this is the highest since July.  Come on baby move.

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In European Bond Markets the gap between German and U.S. 10-year borrowing costs was close to its tightest level in two months on Wednesday, as the euro zone economy and inflation showed signs of improvement.

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German 10-year government bond yields rose two basis point to 0.35 percent on Wednesday, hitting a 10-day high and moving further away from recent lows of 0.287 percent. Other euro zone bond yields were also up across both the core and periphery as trading wound down on Wednesday.


Bond bullish sentiment is at 67%

US 30 Year Yield 

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US 10 Year Yield 

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US 2s10s Spread 

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US 5s30s Spread image011.png


 

WATCHLIST 

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-R.W.N II

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