Daily Note

 

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United States Initial Jobless Claims was reported at 210K in 18/Aug from 212K in the previous period. It was expected at 215K

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United States Continuing Jobless Claims was reported at 1.727M in 11/Aug from 1721K in the previous period. It was expected at 1731K

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United States House Price Index MoM was reported at 0.2% in June It was expected at 0.3%

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United States Markit Manufacturing PMI Flash was reported at 54.5 in Aug from 55.3 in the previous period. It was expected at 55.

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United States Markit Services PMI Flash was reported at 55.2 in Aug from 56 in the previous period. It was expected at 55.9

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United States Markit Composite PMI Flash was reported at 55 in Aug from 55.7 in the previous period. It was expected at 56.3

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United States New Home Sales was reported at 0.627M in Jul from 0.631M in the previous period. It was expected at 0.645M.

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United States New Home Sales MoM was reported at -1.7% in Jul from -5.3% in the previous period. It was expected at 2.2%

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United States Natural Gas Stocks Change was reported at 48 Billion cf in 2018-08-17 from 33 in the previous period. 


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In US Equity Markets the S&P 500 edged higher on Thursday as technology stocks rose, though gains were restricted by declines in commodity-related stocks and trade-sensitive sectors after new tariffs took effect in the U.S.-China trade war. The S&P 500 was up 0.10 percent, at 2,864.57 and the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.36 percent, at 7,917.27. Victoria’s Secret-owner L Brands fell 9 percent, the most on the S&P, after cutting its full-year profit expectations. The technology index rose 0.64 percent, bolstering the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite.

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SPX bullish sentiment is at 70%.

CNN Fear and Greed also diverging like the Daily Sentiment Index from index price. (Index price making new highs while sentiment is lower).

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Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX)  remains on day 12 of 13 with upside Countdown.

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Nasdaq Composite Index (CCMP) with a Countdown 13 today.

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IWM Russell 2000

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IWM Russell 2000 stalling here after upside signals.

 

Bloomberg United States Market Capitalization 

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US Exchange total market cap had a monthly upside exhaustion with a bit of a throw over but this is still valid.  Previous signals worked well!

TRADCNYC- Total Advance/Decline NYSE 

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Upside Combo yesterday.

 

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In Currency Markets sterling slid on Thursday as the government stepped up its plans for a no-deal Brexit, once again reviving concerns about the currency’s fate if Britain left the European Union without having agreed new trade arrangements. The pound traded down 0.6 percent versus the dollar at $1.2834 and down 0.4 percent against the euro at 90.18 pence..Sterling fell to $1.2662 last week, its lowest since June 2017, after several ministers warned that the risk of leaving without an agreement had increased.

US DOLLAR

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US Dollar bullish sentiment is at 69% and down from 96% in the last two weeks.  Some backing and filling is likely.

EURO

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Euro bullish sentiment is currently at 38%, up 3 from previous day.

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YEN

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Japanese Yen bullish sentiment is currently at 35%, down -2 from previous day.

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SOYBEANS

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WHEAT 

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CORN 

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GOLD

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Gold current bullish sentiment currently at 35%, up 12 from previous day.

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In Commodities Markets oil prices slipped on Thursday as an escalating trade dispute between the United States and China outweighed news of a decline in U.S. commercial crude inventories. Benchmark Brent crude oil was down 40 cents a barrel at $74.38. U.S. light crude was 40 cents lower at $67.46. U.S. commercial crude oil inventories fell by 5.8 million barrels in the week to Aug. 17 to 408.36 million barrels, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its weekly report.

WTI CRUDE OIL 

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Crude bullish sentiment is at 80% and back to extreme levels.

BRENT CRUDE OIL 

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In Bond Markets high grade euro-zone bond yields stayed off recent lows on Thursday after purchasing managers’ index data showed a moderate pickup in business growth. Euro zone bond yields all fell at the market open, though the moves were marginal. The spread between German 10-year and U.S. 10-year Treasury yields opened on Thursday at 247.0 bps, before creeping up to 247.8 bps.

US LONG BOND FUTS SEPT ’18 

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Bond bullish sentiment is at 71%.

T-Notes Current Bullish sentiment is at 37%, up 1 from previous day.

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US 10Y Yield 

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US 2s10s Spread 

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VIX INDEX 

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Volatility Index current bullish sentiment is at 35%, down -2 from previous day.

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MOVE INDEX:

The Merrill Lynch Option Volatility Estimate Index (MOVE) is the bond market’s equivalent of the Chicago Board of Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX), and helps to gauge the current level of fear or complacency in fixed income markets.

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SKEW INDEX:

The Cboe SKEW Index (“SKEW”) is an index derived from the price of S&P 500 tail risk. Similar to VIX®, the price of S&P 500 tail risk is calculated from the prices of S&P 500 out-of-the-money options. SKEW typically ranges from 100 to 150. A SKEW value of 100 means that the perceived distribution of S&P 500 log-returns is normal, and the probability of outlier returns is therefore negligible. As SKEW rises above 100, the left tail of the S&P 500 distribution acquires more weight, and the probabilities of outlier returns become more significant. One can estimate these probabilities from the value of SKEW. Since an increase in perceived tail risk increases the relative demand for low strike puts, increases in SKEW also correspond to an overall steepening of the curve of implied volatilities, familiar to option traders as the “skew”.

-CBOE

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-R.W.N II

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