Daily Note

 

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GLOBAL MACRO MONITOR 

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United States Durable Goods Orders MoM was reported at -1.7% in Jul from 1% in the previous period. It was expected at -0.5%. 

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US Durable Goods New Orders Total Ex Transportation MoM SAAR 

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Capital Goods New Orders Nondefense Ex Aircraft & Parts MoM

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Capital Goods Shipments Ex Aircraft % 

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Baker Hughes Rig Count 

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Bloomberg World Index
Bloomberg World Index shows how bad the global market has been this year.  It’s trying to move up and could continue with the recent improvement in some markets.
-Hedge Fund Telemetry

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Hong Kong still struggling.
-Hedge Fund Telemetry

Hong Kong Seng Index 

Still struggling. -Hedge Fund Telemetry

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Nikkei 225 Index 

Nikkei is without any momentum. -Hedge Fund Telemetry

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NSE NIFTY 50 Index 

India Nifty Fifty Index on day 9 of 13 with red Sequential Countdown. -Hedge Fund Telemetry

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Italy Generic Govt 10Y Yield 

Today’s news reports that President Trump offered to buy Italian bonds is rather unprecedented.  He doesn’t drink (thank God) but maybe he just mentioned it to the Italian PM in passing.  Yields look higher on day 9 of 13  -Hedge Fund Telemetry

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SX5E EURO STOXX 50 

Euro Stoxx 50 still slowly moving higher.
Hedge Fund Telemetry

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In US Equity Markets the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq hit all-time highs on Friday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the central bank’s current approach to interest rate hikes were the best way to protect the U.S. economic recovery. The S&P 500 was up 0.52 percent, at 2,871.85 and the Nasdaq Composite was up 0.81 percent, at 7,942.05. Staples were hit by Philip Morris’s 3.3 percent decline and Altria’s 2 percent fell after brokerage Jefferies flagged concerns that the two tobacco companies could lose market share.

SPX bullish sentiment is at  66%. – Hedge Fund Telemetry

SPX daily upside Countdown 13’s still in play. – Hedge Fund Telemetry

S&P 500 Index 

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S&P Futures E-mini’s on day 11 of 13.  – Hedge Fund Telemetry

CME E-Mini Standard & Poor’s 500 Index 

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Nasdaq bullish sentiment is at 69%. – Hedge Fund Telemetry

NDX Index got the upside Sequential Countdown 13 today. – Hedge Fund Telemetry

NASDAQ 100 Stock Index 

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Nasdaq 100 Futures is on day 12 of 13. – Hedge Fund Telemetry

CME E-Mini NASDAQ 100 Index Future

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Dow Jones did not get above the January high and is stalling after some upside exhaustion signals. – Hedge Fund Telemetry 
Dow Jones Industrial Average
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IWM Russell 2000 got the upside 13 two days ago. –Hedge Fund Telemetry

iShares Russell 2000 ETF 

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SPDR S&P Retail ETF 

This is the weekly of XRT.  I expect a reversal in the coming weeks. –Hedge Fund Telemetry

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In Currency Markets the pound slid against the euro to its weakest since mid-September, hurt by a rally in the single currency and concerns about whether Britain can secure a post-Brexit trade deal with the European Union.

Sterling rose, however, against a dollar rattled by a speech by U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. But sterling fell to trade as weak as 90.390 pence per euro on Friday, a fresh 11-month low. The British currency rose as high as $1.2880, up nearly half a percent on the day, before settling around $1.2845.

US Dollar bullish sentiment is at 74% down from recent high of 96%.  At the time I said the USD will come back down. –Hedge Fund Telemetry

US Dollar 

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Euro bullish sentiment is at 33%. –Hedge Fund Telemetry

Euro Spot still not above the 50 day but close. –Hedge Fund Telemetry

EURO Spot Rate 

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Chinese Yuan.  I compressed this chart because it shows the downside wave 5 price objective of 7.2291.  If this breaks 7.00 things could get out of control with many other markets.
Hedge Fund Telemetry

USD-CNY X-RATE

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Australian Dollar bullish sentiment is at 40% and trying to move above 50%.
Hedge Fund Telemetry

AUDUSD needs to move above the 50 day and 0.74.
Hedge Fund Telemetry

AUD-USD X-RATE

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Canadian Dollar bullish sentiment is at 33% and trying to move higher.
Hedge Fund Telemetry

CAD-USD X-RATE 

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British Pound Sterling bullish sentiment is at 26% and up from a recent low of 7%.

Hedge Fund Telemetry

British Pound Spot Rate 

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Gold bullish sentiment is at 28% down from 35% the previous day.
Hedge Fund Telemetry

SPDR Gold Shares ETF 

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GDX bouncing today but has a lot of rebuilding to do.
Hedge Fund Telemetry

Vaneck Vectors Gold Miners ETF 

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SOYBEAN FUTURE -Nov’18

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CORN FUTURE -December’18

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WHEAT FUTURE- December ’18 

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In Energy Markets oil prices jump 2 percent on Friday and were on track to end a run of weekly declines on signs that Iran sanctions may limit global supply and that a trade war may not curb China’s appetite for U.S. crude. Brent crude oil  rose $1.29 a barrel to $76.02 after earlier touching a high of $76.42. U.S. crude was $1.20 higher at $69.03. U.S. crude was set to be up more than 4.7 percent on the week, after seven consecutive declines and Brent was on track for a 5.8 percent rise after three weeks of falling prices.

Crude bullish sentiment is at 84%.
Hedge Fund Telemetry

Crude continues higher as I’ve felt could happen recently.
Hedge Fund Telemetry

Generic 1st ‘CO’ Future-WTI 

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Generic 1st ‘CO’ Future-Brent  

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In Bond Markets U.S. Treasury prices gave back earlier losses on Friday after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell made the case for further rate increases, but did not give any new indications on the U.S. central bank’s pace of rate hikes.

Benchmark 10-year notes fell 2/32 in price on the day to yield 2.828 percent, after rising to 2.850 percent before Powell’s speech. The notes have held in a range between 2.822 percent and 3.016 percent since the end of May. The yield curve between two-year and 10-year notes flattened to 20 basis points, the flattest since 2007.

Bond bullish sentiment is at 73%. –Hedge Fund Telemetry

US Generic Govt 30 Year Yield 

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US 10 year yield reversed earlier weakest in bond market and now is lower.
-Hedge Fund Telemetry

US Generic Govt 10 Year Yield 

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US 2s10s spread 

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US 5s20s spread

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HYG High Yield ETF on day 12 of 13.  This used to mirror some equity markets but it really has diverged.  By the way the Setup 9’s and 13’s have been pretty spot on.
-Hedge Fund Telemetry

iShares iBoxx High Yield Corporate Bond ETF 

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CBOE SPX Volatility Index -VIX 

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CBOE SKEW INDEX image028.png

Merrill Lynch Option Volatility Estimate- MOVE Index 

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WATCHLIST 

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-R.W.N II

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