Daily Note

 

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In European Equity Markets the pan-European STOXX 600 closed up 0.27 percent, with most sectors ending the day in the black. Oil and gas stocks were some of Europe’s top performers, finishing up 0.94 percent as a sector amid earnings news.

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Nikkei bullish sentiment is at 56%

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In US Equity Markets the benchmark S&P 500 edged closer to a record high on Tuesday, matching its longest-ever bull-market run, as U.S. stocks rose after some encouraging earnings reports and on hopes that the United States and China could resolve their tariff dispute.

[ SPX ]The S&P 500 was up 0.34 percent, at 2,866.74.

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Both momentum and value factors are moving in within the longer term downtrend. This chart is a replication of Ms. @daniberger of Bloomberg. Here article explaining the movment between Bloomberg US Pure Value Portfolio total return and Bloomberg Pure Momentum Portfolio Total Return here:

Correction Worse Than February Is Looming, Morgan Stanley Says

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NASDAQ bullish sentiment is at 65%. Nasdaq Composite was up 0.64 percent, at 7,870.83.image.png

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[ IWM ]The small-cap Russell 2000 index jumped 0.95 percent to a record high.

IWM Russell 2000 Sequential today

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TRADCADS Index (Cumulative Breadth) 

“Back in 2007, there were upside exhaustion signals that were a little early on the S&P 500 breadth” -HFT

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Something else that was an early indicator back in 2007 was the inversion of the yield curve 6motnhs prior to the so-called, “credit crunch” during the summer of 2007.

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In Currency Markets, the British pound rose towards a two-week high on Tuesday after the dollar fell following comments from U.S. President Donald Trump that he was unhappy with the Federal Reserve for raising interest rates.

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Sterling has recovered in recent sessions from a 14-month low, rising two cents from $1.2662 plumbed last week, helped by dollar weakness and some investors sensing a buying opportunity after the pound’s recent slide. Pushed higher by investors selling the U.S. dollar on Tuesday, the pound rose to as high as $1.2871, up half a percent on the day.

British Pound Sterling current bullish sentiment is at 21%, up 4 from previous day.

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Brazilian Real surpasses the 4-handle as Brazil’s currency is added to the fray of beleaguered foreign currencies [TRY , VEF ].

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Dollar current bullish sentiment is at 79% down -2 from the previous day.

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In Commodities Markets oil rose to its highest in a week on Tuesday, buoyed by the prospect of price support from U.S. sanctions on Iran, although the trade dispute between Washington and Beijing kept traders and analysts cautious.

The most active October U.S. crude futures contract rose 98 cents from its last close to $66.40 a barrel. The September contract expires later on Tuesday. Crude bullish sentiment is at 68%.

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Brent crude futures were last up 68 cents on the day at $72.89 a barrel, the highest level since Aug. 14,

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Like other physical commodities, copper looks to continue to derive
modest buying interest as a result of slightly improved macroeconomic
expectations off widely held hopes of something positive from trade talks later
this week.

It is also possible that one or both sides in the talks will attempt to posture ahead of the meetings and that could lower the expectations for progress without notice and in turn provide a sudden selling wave in copper.

 

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Gold bullish sentiment is at 18% and is actually at the highest level early in July.

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In Bond Markets U.S. Treasury yields rose on Tuesday on improving risk appetite and as investors waited on the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s August meeting on Wednesday and a speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell on Friday. Powell is due to speak on Friday at the Kansas City Fed’s economic symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

Bond bullish sentiment is at 72%

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Benchmark 10-year notes fell 5/32 in price to yield 2.841 percent, up from a low of 2.815 percent on Monday, the from the lowest since July 6. T-Notes current bullish sentiment is at 38% up 2 from the previous day.

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US 2s10s Yield curve spread continues the march toward inversion.

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The Eurozone: Over the past few years, foreign investors have been buying European stocks but exiting the euro area debt investments.

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Source: @ClausVistesen

Via The Daily Shot Editor 

 

Emerging Markets: Counting the zeros on Venezuela’s inflation rate is becoming harder.

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Source: @jsblokland, @steve_hanke

Via The Daily Shot Editor 

Equity Markets: Here is the seasonal performance of US large- and small-cap stocks.

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Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research

Via The Daily Shot Editor 



WATCHLIST 

blog_eyer_all_seeing_eye_claude_harris_board_detail_880x

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Trade-Ideas –  Added to short AMD, DIA, IWM, Held short puts TSLA.  Bought long EEM, FEZ, INTC 2.5% size on all trades

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