Daily Note: Breakfast at Tiffany’s

 

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GLOBAL MACRO MONITOR 

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United States MBA Mortgage Applications was reported at -1.7% in 24/Aug from 4.2% in the previous period. It was expected at 0.66%.
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United States MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate was reported at 4.78% in 24/Aug from 4.81% in the previous period. It was expected at 4.81%.
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United States GDP Growth Rate QoQ 2nd Est was reported at 4.2% in Q2 from 2.2% in the previous period. It was expected at 4%.

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(Via BEA )
United States GDP Growth Rate was reported at 4.2 percent in 2018 from 2.2 in the previous period.
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United States Consumer Spending was reported at 12841.2 USD Billion in 2018 from 12722.84 in the previous period.
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United States EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change was reported at -2.566M in 24/Aug from -5.836M in the previous period. It was expected at -0.686M.
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United States EIA Gasoline Stocks Change was reported at -1.554M in 24/Aug from 1.2M in the previous period. It was expected at 0.37M.
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United States 7-Year Note Auction was reported at 2.844% from 2.930% in the previous period

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Bloomberg World Index still so far from January highs.  -H.F.T 

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EEM Emerging Markets ETF holding the 50 day. -H.F.T 

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Australia ASX 200 looks higher. -H.F.T 

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Canada TSX with a Sequential Countdown 13.  -H.F.T 

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Euro Stoxx 50 still ok as a long. -H.F.T 
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Nikkei bullish sentiment is at 72%. Nikkei upside exhaustion today.  -H.F.T 

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India Nifty 50 Index no changes.  -H.F.T 

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SPX bullish sentiment is at 75% -H.F.T 

SPX daily now has some possibility of a continuation with a new secondary upside red Countdown.  A reversal down in the coming days has to happen or else we could see this continue to 13.  We saw secondary upside exhaustion Countdowns in January too.-H.F.T 

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Nasdaq bullish sentiment is at 77%.-H.F.T 

NDX Attribution today shows AMZN, MSFT, AAPL, GOOGL attributing more than have the gains.  When these go down the narrow attribution will happen and that will be felt. -H.F.T 

 

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Dow Jones Industrial Average a bit of an overthrow similar to January. -H.F.T 

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  IWM Russell 2000 with a Combo 13 today. -H.F.T 

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US Dollar bullish sentiment is at 55% and down from 96% recent peak. -H.F.T 

US Dollar Index

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Euro bullish sentiment is at 50%. -H.F.T 

Euro Spot

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British Pound Sterling Spot 

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“Green day for equities. Sell Chinese exposure via the FXI ETF.”
Yuan dropped last night and if this continues this could be a catalyst for selling around the world. -H.F.T 

Yuan Spot 

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Emerging Market FX 

Turkish Lira Spot 

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Mexican Peso Spot 

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Swedish Krona 

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Argentine Peso Spot 

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Gold bullish sentiment is at 36%. Gold still lacking thrust.  -H.F.T 

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Crude bullish sentiment is at 82% and remains in the extreme zone. Crude up again today.            -H.F.T 

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Bond bullish sentiment is at 67%.  -H.F.T 

US 30Y Yield 

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US 10Y Yield 

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vs USGG10Y  With the UST 10yr Yield approaching the top-end of the Risk Range buy TLT for long bond exposure. It’s also nice that you can size up positions like this into month-end. You get your monthly coupon in early September” 

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US 2s10s 

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US 5s30s

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US OIS 

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CBOE SPX Volatility Index 

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CBOE SKEW INDEX 

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Merrill Lynch Option Volatility Estimate MOVE INDEX 

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WATCHLIST 

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-R.W.N II

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