Daily Note : Low Draft

 

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GLOBAL MACRO MONITOR 

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(Bloomberg) — The U.S. merchandise-trade deficit widened more than expected in July, while inventories increased at wholesalers and retailers, according to preliminary figures Tuesday from the Commerce Department in Washington. The goods-trade gap grew to $72.2 billion, the biggest since February, from a revised $67.9 billion the prior month, compared with the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey that called for a deficit of $69 billion. Wholesale inventories rose 0.7 percent, while retail inventories rose 0.4 percent.

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United States Wholesale Inventories MoM Adv was reported at 0.7 in Jul from 0.1% in the previous period. It was expected at -0.2%. 

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United States Wholesale Inventories was reported at 0.7 percent in Jul 2018 from 0.1 in the previous period. 

United States Redbook YoY was reported at 5.1 in 25/Aug from 4.7% in the previous period. 

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United States Redbook MoM was reported at 0.4 in 25/Aug from 0.2% in the previous period.

United States S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price MoM was reported at 0.5% in Jun from 0.7% in the previous period. It was expected at 0.6%. 

United States S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price YoY was reported at 6.3% in Jun from 6.5% in the previous period. It was expected at 6.5%. 

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United States Case Shiller Home Price Index was reported at 213.07 Index Points in Jun 2018 from 212 in the previous period.

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S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index

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United States 4-Week Bill Auction was reported at 1.930% from 1.910% in the previous period.

 

United States 5-Year Note Auction was reported at 2.765% from 2.815% in the previous period.

Richmond Manufacturing Survey Current Manufacturing Composite SA image009.png

Conference Board Consumer Confidence SA 1985=100

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Bloomberg World Index bouncing but still well off highs. –H.F.T 

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EEM Emerging Markets ETF still like it long. –H.F.T 

EURO STOXX 50 Price (SX5E)

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Euro Stoxx 50 still like it long. –H.F.T 

 

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German DAX needs to break the string of lower highs. –H.F.T 

Euro STOXX Bank Price EUR (SX7E) 

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Euro Banks still look weak. –H.F.T 

FSTE 1000 Index  (UKX)

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UK sideways. –H.F.T 

FSTE MIB Index (FTSEMIB)

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Italy couldn’t get moving much after the downside 13.  No rush to buy Italian stocks.-H.F.T 

 

Nikkei bullish sentiment is at 76%. – H.F.T 

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Nikkei should get the upside exhaustion in the next few days. – H.F.T 

HSI Index  Hong Kong Seng Index 

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Hong Kong traded up but closed near the low.  Still more work needed. – H.F.T 

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India’s Nifty 50 on day 11 of 13 now. – H.F.T 

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SPX bullish sentiment is at 80%. – H.F.T 

SPX daily with a green Setup 9 too. – H.F.T 

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S&P Emini Futures with both a Countdown 13 and Setup 9. – H.F.T 

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SPY vs TLT ratio did get the upside 13 too today. -H.F.T 

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Nasdaq bullish sentiment is at 80%. -H.F.T 

Nasdaq 100 Futures September 18 (U) 

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NDX Index did have a recent upside exhaustion too. -H.F.T 

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Dow Jones Industrial Average has thrown over after the recent upside exhaustion signals – similar to what happened in late January too.  -H.F.T 

 

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IWM Russell 2000 with green Setup 9 today. -H.F.T 

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US Dollar bullish sentiment is at 57% and down from 96% on 8/14. -H.F.T 

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US Dollar Index could see a bounce after the 9 tomorrow. -H.F.T 

 

Euro bullish sentiment is at 47% and still under 50%. -H.F.T 

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Euro Spot same with 8/9 on the Setup as the USD. -H.F.T 
Yuan strengthened last night a little but I still think this could be the 4th wave of 5 (5 will break through 7). -H.F.T 

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Gold bullish sentiment is at 42% and another new high for this move. -H.F.T 

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Gold still has work to do but it seems to be moving in the right direction albeit a bit slow.  -H.F.T 

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CBOT Wheat Futures Dec’18 (Z) 

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CME Soybean Futures November ’18 (X) 

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CME Corn Futures December ’18 (Z) 

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Crude bullish sentiment is at 85% and is extreme.  -H.F.T  

CO1 (generic 1st ‘CL’ Future’ ) Brent

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CL1 (generic 1st ‘CL’ Future’ ) WTI 

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Bond bullish sentiment is at 72%. -H.F.T  

US 30-Year Yield 

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US 10-Year Yield 

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US 10 year yield  I feel should move lower but it just can’t break the downside at 2.80%. -H.F.T  

US 2s10s spread

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US 5s30s spread

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CBOE SPX Volatility Index 

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CBOE SKEW INDEX 

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Merrill Lynch Option Volatility Estimate MOVE INDEX 

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WATCHLIST 

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-R.W.N II

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