Economic Watchtower

 

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Adam Vinson, ‘Silence’, 8×18, Oil on panel

 

Banyan Global Macro

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Eurozone Slowing 

Image result for hedgeye europe slowing

(Source: Hedgeye)


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(Source: BofAML) 

Eurozone final Real GDP (revised down -10bps to 2.1% YoY in 2Q18)

German Exports (-120bps to 4.5% YoY in JUL; trending lower)

German Industrial Production (-160bps to 1.1% YoY in JUL; trending lower)

German Unit Labor Costs (-37bps to 2.02% YoY in 2Q18 (peaking from a trending perspective)

Italian Retail Sales (-197bps to -0.57% YoY; trending lower).

Bucking the trend of sour releases were the French and Spanish Industrial Production figures, which were unchanged at 1.8% YoY in JUL and +10bps to 0.5% YoY in JUL, respectively.


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During the 3-month period (May-July), average wage growth accelerated to 2.6% from 2.4% previously, stronger than market expectations at 2.4%. The July unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.0%. Meantime, employment rose 3K during the 3-month period, from 42K previously, lower than consensus at 10K. Robert Wood notes that the 20bp positive surprise in wage growth will be welcome by the central bank, after the hike in August. However some of the acceleration in pay growth will unwind next month as it is partially due to a base effect.

(Source:BofAML) 

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(Source: BofAML) 

UK Claimant Count Rate SA

UK Unemployment Claimant Count Monthly Change SA

Average Weekly Earnings 3 Month Avg Growth Whole Economy YoY

UK AWE Regular Pay Whole Economy 3M Avg YoY SA

In September, the ZEW current situation index came in at 76 from 72.6 in August, above market consensus at 72. The ZEW expectations index improved to -10.6 from -13.7, better than the expected -13.0. Evelyn Herrmann notes that, despite the better-than- expected number, the decline versus 2017 or even 1H2018 remains quite stark. Having said that, ZEW is a fairly small scale survey conducted among financial sector analysts and other surveys (PMIs, Ifo) tend to be a better leading indicator for capacity.

(Source: BofAML) 

ZEW Germany Assessment of Current Situation

ZEW Germany Expectation of Economic Growth

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In the latest Survey of Consumer Expectations, one-year ahead median inflation expectations were little changed at 3.0%. However, there was a modest increase in the three year-ahead inflation expectations, rising to 3.0% from 2.9%. Meanwhile, consumers expected a further softening in home price appreciation, as the measure fell to 3.6% and has fallen for the second consecutive month. Overall, the report did not offer much new in the way of consumer expectations as most were little changed from the prior release.

Consumer credit increased by $16.6bn, or 5.2% mom saar, in July. The increase was stronger than market expectations for a $14.0bn rise. The increase was driven by a $15.4bn gain in nonrevolving debt while revolving debt edged up by $1.3bn.

(Source:BofAML) 

Federal Reserve Consumer Credit Total Net Change SA

NFIB Small Business Optimism Index

US Job Openings By Industry Total SA

Merchant Wholesalers Inventories Total Monthly % Change

 

-R.W.N II

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