En attente de souffle lors de l’annonce de l’accord commercial


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(Bloomberg) — Equities waffled ahead of the midterms, the tech sector lagging as a trade deal between the U.S. and China remains out of reach. China’s response over the weekend to Trump’s hopes for an agreement at the G-20 were met with no new proposals; Xi denounced Trump’s trade strategy.

Market participants remained sidelined.

Key Headlines:

  • Italian official says Italy’s Tria signaled potential compromise on budget with EU: Reuters
  • U.S. non-manufacturing index at 60.3 vs 61.6 prior month
  • October U.S. services purchasing managers’ index rises to 54.8

 

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(Bloomberg) — Treasuries remained within a narrow U.S. session range, holding gains while the long end outperformed; futures volumes were poor ahead of risk events this week including U.S. midterms, bond auctions and Thursday FOMC decision.

  • Yields were slightly cheaper front end and richer further out the curve, flattening
  • 5s30s by 1.2bp
  • 2s10s by 1.7bp
  • 30-year yields ended lower by 2bp, retreating from YTD highs reached Friday
    • Curve ended off flattest levels of the session following soft 3-year auction, which saw weak direct bid allotments and tailed 0.3bp
  • Treasury volumes in 10-year notes ran at just 55% of 10-day avg into cash settlement as little notable flows were posted.
  • Focus ahead on Tuesday event risks with 10-year auctions and U.S. midterm results (expected in late evening); for third consecutive day, demand emerged for downside protection via TY Week 2 118 puts, which target 10-year yields around 3.22% ahead of Friday expiry.
    • In addition to 24,616 block trade, a total of 73,283 also traded in screens; ahead of Monday’s session, total open interest in the TY Week 2 118 puts had grown to 81,507

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(Bloomberg) — Just two defensive credits tapped the primary market Monday for a total of $1.5 billion of new supply.

  • Duke Energy Carolinas is raising $1b of first mortgage bonds to finance green projects.
    • The integrated utility company held investor calls last week.
  • Ameren Illinois, another utility issuer, is in the market with first mortgage bonds, announced with a no-grow size of $500m.
  • Today’s session, a day before the highly watched U.S. midterm election, brings November volume close to $9b.
  • Whirlpool Corp has yet to emerge after holding investor calls last Tuesday.

ISSUANCE STATS

Day $1.500b

WTD $1.500b

MTD $8.850b

YTD $990.609b

DEALS

  •  Duke Energy Carolinas LLC (DUK) Aa2/A, $1b across 2 tranches
    • $350m Long 3Y at +38; +40a (+/- 2), +55-60
    • $650m 10Y at +80; +80#, +90-95
  • Ameren Illinois Co (AEE) A1/A
    • $500m WNG 30Y at +107; +110a (+/- 3), +120-125

SSA Issuance

  • Landwirtschaftliche Rentenbank (RENTEN)
    • $Bmark 5Y, IPT MS+6 area
    • Expected to price tomorrow

 

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The dollar fell while emerging market assets gained. 

Turkey’s lira climbed over 2% after an inflation report showed producer prices slowed for the first time in nine months and core inflation rose less than the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey.

Elsewhere, cable strengthened a third day in four on signs of further progress in Brexit negotiations. 

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Bloomberg) — Corn rose to the highest in more than two weeks as traders speculated that the U.S. Department of Agriculture may reduce yields in the World Supply And Demand Estimates report on Thursday. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expect the agency to reduce its forecast for U.S. corn and soybean yields as the harvest in parts of the country has been delayed by a bout of cold, wet weather.

Drivers

U.S. Corn, Soybean Production  Survey  Before USDA WASDE Avg. analyst est. for corn 180.1 bushels per acre vs USDA Oct. estimate of 180.7  Avg. analyst est. for soy 53 bushels per acre vs USDA’s Oct. est. of 53.1 bushels.

U.S. Soy and Corn Production Estimates Lowered at INTL FCStone Last month, the firm projected 182.7 bu/acre and production of 14.94b bushels.

Corn yields forecast at 181.4 bu/acre with production at 14.83b bushels, according to estimates released Thursday Soybean yields seen at 53.2 bu/acre with production at 4.699b bushels The prior forecast was 54 bu/acre and production of 4.796b North Dakota ’s Cold, Wet Weather Is Hindering Soybean Harvest Chilly temperatures, rain and snow have delayed the harvest of soybeans in North Dakota, and more of the same is expected next week

The eastern part of the state, where most of its soybeans are grown, has had more rain than usual and temperatures that are 4 to 5 degrees Fahrenheit below normal, according to Paul Markert, a senior meteorologist for Radiant Solutions in Gaithersburg, Maryland More of the same is expected next week, with temperatures beginning to drop Tuesday, he said in a telephone interview Friday

U.S. CROP EXPORTS: 101,745 Tons of Corn Sold to Mexico

Corn futures for December delivery gained as much as 0.7% to $3.74 a bushel, the highest price for the contract since Oct. 17 Jan. 

Soybean futures rose as much as 0.6% before paring to be down 0.2% at 11:21am in Chicago. 

Market talk

“Harvest is once again slowing down” after some cold, wet weather, Mark Schultz , chief market analyst for Northstar Commodity Investment, says by phone “Yields at the end didn’t hold up as everyone thought” Some export business and potential for talks between the U.S. and China this month are also supporting prices, he says

Other markets

Dec.  Wheat futures fell as much as 1% on CBOT after three days of gains. 


The Cotton and Wool Outlook for October 2018 was released by the Economic Research Service.

Via Mann Library https://usda-admin.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda/viewDocumentInfo.do?documentID=1281

In this month’s report:
• U.S. cotton production projected 5.5 percent lower in 2018/19.
• World cotton mill use projected at a record high in 2018/19.
• Global cotton ending stocks lowest since 2011/12.

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(Source: Hedge Fund Telemetry)

Crude climbed as sanctions on Iran oil snapped back into place Monday.

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(Source: Hedge Fund Telemetry)

 


-R.W.N II, yours in 322.

After-Hours

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