Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago: National Activity Index (CFNAI): ‘fac fortia et patere’.

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Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Novwas reported at 0.15 vs. 0.65 thereinafter revised to 0.75 in the previous period.


+ Slower growth in production allied indicators attributed to the decline in the  (CFNAI) in November. However, on a three-month moving average, the CFNAI Diffusion index ticked up to +0.28 in November vs. +0.18 in October, suggesting solid momentum in the 85 individual indicators that contribute to the index.

Among the indicators that lagged within the CFNAI Diffusion Index were, as noted above, the contributions from production-related indicators. Most notably was Industrial production which slowed to 0.2% from a robust 1.2% in October. I’m attributing this to seasonality and look forward to a strong 2018 performance from industrials; with a 3std hope of the benefits from repartiations of funds held overseas, will have a spill-over effect an increase in industrial production domestically. I digress.

The Sales, orders and inventories category with the National Activity report showed a marginal increase in November of +0.05 from that of +0.04 reported in October. Additionally, note that the Supply Management’s Manufacturing New Orders Index increased in November +0.06 from 63.4 in October. Fingers crossed for those in the Industrials and manufacturing sectors into the new year.

Lastly, the contributions to the National Activity Index from personal consumption and housing bermed lower in November to -0.06 vs. -0.04 in October. Overlayed with the Census Bureau’s print on Housing Permits this week, which decreased to 1,298,000 in November from 1,316,000 in the previous period, I’m assured the housing market recovering is building strength, albeit slow and steady. This I am okay with on the grounds that we don’t need “irrational exuberance in the “backbone” of the American economy, again.

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