Globetrotting Charts 


Banyan Global Macro.jpg


Screen Shot 2018-09-09 at 11.29.30 PM.png

(Source: BofAML) 


This all comes from Bank of America’s Market Analysis Comment Note entitled, US exhaustion gaps = tactical risk within bullish trends & Globetrotting charts. 

I will add all the text from the original report but will add my own charts because I to practice annotating charts on the terminal. Here is the original report from BofAML, if you’d like to get straight to the point.

US exhaustion gaps = tactical risk within bullish trends & Globetrotting charts


Screen Shot 2018-09-09 at 11.42.06 PM.png

SPX exhaustion gap = corrective risk within bullish trend

The S&P 500 filled the 8/27 daily and weekly upside gap on last week’s decline to set up a tactically bearish exhaustion gap (defined on side bar) entering the weak month of September. This suggests corrective risk within a bullish trend. If the S&P 500 moves below the prior high from January near 2873, there is plenty of support at 2800-2764 (4-month base breakout point and July breakaway gap) to contain seasonal weakness with the potential for SPX 3000 when seasonality improves in October.

As mentioned in last week’s report, 4Q in the Mid-term year of the Presidential Cycle is strong.

Screen Shot 2018-09-09 at 11.59.44 PM.png

(Source: BofAML) 



NDX exhaustion gap = corrective risk within uptrend

The NASDAQ 100 (NDX) remains within bullish absolute and relative trends (leadership vs the S&P 500). Last week’s decline filled the 8/27 upside gap (daily and weekly charts) to suggest an upside exhaustion gap heading into a weak month of September (Market Comment: 05 Sep 18). In our view, this suggests corrective risk within a bullish trend. There is plenty of NDX support in the 7158-6850 range (chart levels, bullish 26/40-week MAs, and 2016 uptrend line) to contain seasonal weakness with the potential for NDX 8000 when seasonality improves in October and into year end.


 


Global breadth at risk but US leads when breadth is weak

The daily global advance-decline (A-D) line of 73 country indices is at risk to break down from a 2018 top. Prior tops for global breadth in 2015 and 2011 saw deep corrections for global and US equities, but the US equity market (S&P 500) beat the rest of the world (MSCI ACWI ex US) when global breadth was weak.

 

Nothing new: US leadership trend vs ROW since 2008

Geopolitical risk and uncertainty in 2018, as well as the recent weakness in global breadth, have allowed the S&P 500 to strengthen relative to the rest of the world (ROW). After breaking out in late May (Market Comment: 30 May 18), the relative ratio for the US vs ROW shows continued leadership for the US within a longer-term bullish relative or leadership trend from 2008. In other words, US leadership vs ROW is nothing new and has been in place for years.

Screen Shot 2018-09-10 at 12.38.47 AM.png

(Source: BofAML) 


 

MSCI EM top & bear flag = risk to 994-970

MSCI Emerging Markets (MXEF) broke the key support highlighted in our June Monthly. The pattern is a bearish breakdown and retest as prior support at 1085-1104 acted as resistance (August Monthly). The June breakdown put in a top for EM that projects the MXEF into the 994-970 range (50% retracement of 2016-2018 rally at 982.64). A late June – early August bear flag increases the risk for a test of this level. It would take a decisive break above 1075-1100 to call the bearish EM view into question.

 


Globetrotting

The biggest macro support is the early 2016 low of 2638 on the SCHOMP. The SHCOMP has stabilized in recent weeks but better signs of a bottom are needed. The Hang Seng has broken its big macro support at 28,000. The EURO STOXX 50, DAX, and IBEX have broken key supports and show deeper downside risk. See inside the report for technicals on the HSCEI, SENSEX, Nikkei 225, STI, XU100, IMOEX, WIG20, and JALSH.

 


Screen Shot 2018-09-10 at 12.50.30 AM.png



Screen Shot 2018-09-10 at 12.51.02 AM.png


Screen Shot 2018-09-10 at 1.29.23 AM.png


Screen Shot 2018-09-10 at 12.51.32 AM.png


Screen Shot 2018-09-10 at 12.51.40 AM.png

Screen Shot 2018-09-10 at 1.53.36 AM.png


(Source: BofAML) 


Screen Shot 2018-09-10 at 12.51.47 AM.png

Screen Shot 2018-09-10 at 1.53.44 AM.png

(Source: BofAML) 



Screen Shot 2018-09-10 at 12.51.53 AM.png

Screen Shot 2018-09-10 at 1.53.52 AM.png

(Source: BofAML) 


Screen Shot 2018-09-10 at 12.52.00 AM.png

Screen Shot 2018-09-10 at 1.54.01 AM.png

(Source: BofAML) 



Screen Shot 2018-09-10 at 12.52.06 AM.png

Screen Shot 2018-09-10 at 1.54.10 AM.png

 


Screen Shot 2018-09-10 at 12.52.11 AM.png

Screen Shot 2018-09-10 at 1.54.18 AM.png

(Source: BofAML) 


Screen Shot 2018-09-10 at 12.52.17 AM.png

Screen Shot 2018-09-10 at 1.54.26 AM.png

(Source: BofAML) 



 

Screen Shot 2018-09-10 at 12.52.25 AM.png

Screen Shot 2018-09-10 at 1.54.33 AM.png

(Source: BofAML) 


Screen Shot 2018-09-10 at 12.52.31 AM.png

Screen Shot 2018-09-10 at 1.54.41 AM.png

(Source: BofAML) 



Screen Shot 2018-09-09 at 11.33.32 PM.png

(Source: BofAML) 


-R.W.N II

Mail AttachmentMail Attachment-1

Banyan Capital Management, LLC (“BCM”) is a publisher, not a registered investment advisor, and nothing in BCM’s newsletter is intended, and it should not be construed, to be investment advice. BCM’s newsletter is for informational use only. Any mention in BCM’s newsletter of a particular security, index, derivative, or other instrument is neither a recommendation by BCM to buy, sell, or hold that security, index, derivative, or other instrument, nor does it constitute an opinion of BCM (or of any of its officers, employees, agents or representatives) as to the suitability of that security, index, derivative or other instrument for any particular purpose. BCM is not in the business of giving investment advice or advice regarding the suitability for any purpose of any security, index, derivative, other instrument or trading strategy and nothing in BCM’s newsletter should be so used or relied upon. BCM is not acting as your financial advisor nor in a fiduciary capacity, with regard to any securities, index, derivative or other instrument referred to in BCM’s newsletter. Also, no representation is made concerning the tax implications in any applicable jurisdiction regarding any securities, index, derivative or other instrument and BCM is not advising you in respect of the tax implications. All opinions and estimates in the newsletters are given as of the date of their publication on the BCM’s website and are subject to change and BCM does not assume any obligation to update the newsletters or to reference any such changes. BCM hereby expressly disclaims any and all representations and warranties that: (a) the content of its newsletters is correct, accurate, complete, reliable or a guaranty of future performance; (b) any of its newsletters will be available at any particular time or place, or in any particular medium; and (c) that any omission or error in any of its newsletters will be corrected. BCM shall not be liable for any errors or omissions made in its newsletters or for any inaccuracies in its assumptions. BCM specifically disclaims liability for any losses or damages (incidental, consequential or otherwise) that may arise from the newsletters and that are either used or relied upon by anyone for any reason, including without limitation, the use of the newsletters in the preparation of any financial books and records. Although from time to time BCM’s newsletter may link to or promote others’ websites or services, BCM is not responsible for and does not control those websites or services. BCM’s newsletter is published and distributed in accordance with applicable United States and foreign copyright and other laws. Without the prior written consent of BCM, no person or entity, directly or indirectly, may copy, reproduce, recompile, decompile, disassemble, reverse engineer, distribute, publish, display, perform, modify, upload to create derivative works from, transmit, or in any way exploit all or any part of BCM’s website, its newsletter, or any other material belonging to BCM.Without the prior written consent of BCM, no person or entity, directly or indirectly, may offer all or any part of BCM’s website, its newsletter, or any other material belonging to BCM for sale, nor may any person or entity, directly or indirectly, distribute all or any part of BCM’s website, its newsletter, or any other material belonging to BCM over or by means of any medium.Without the prior written consent of BCM, no person or entity, directly or indirectly, may make all or any part of BCM’s website, its newsletter, or any other material belonging to BCM, available as part of or in connection with another website, whether by hyperlink, framing on the Internet or otherwise. At any given time BCM’s principals may or may not have a financial interest in any or all of the securities and instruments discussed herein. At any given time BCM’s principals may or may not have a financial interest in any or all of the securities and instruments discussed herein.

 

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.