But I do know, “As the housing industry goes, so goes the rest of the economy.” Having said that, Home builders have been reporting rising confidence going into year-end with the housing market index moving 4 points higher in October to 68 followed by a 2 point gain in November to 70 and the best reading since March. Strength in this report has not translated this year to equivalent strength in actual housing data though new home sales have in fact been coming alive in recent months. Forecasters see December’s index holding at 70.
New home sales began to surge back in September and are now giving a significant lift to home builder sentiment as the housing market index rose a very sharp 5 points to a new expansion high at 74. The traffic component is a standout in the December report, surging 8 points to an expansion high of 58 to indicate a flood of new buyers in the market. Current sale are up 4 points at 81 with 6-month sales up 3 points to 79, also expansion highs. The West has a composite score of 85 followed by the Midwest at 76 and South at 75. The Northeast lags at 53. Today’s report points to strength for tomorrow’s housing starts and permits report.
Housing Market Index: National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)
Market Sensitivity: Medium.
What Is It: Assesses the current market for new single-family home sales along with builder expectations of future trends.
Most Current News Release on the Internet:www.nahb.org/hmi
Home Web Address: www.nahb.org
Release Time: 10:00 a.m. (ET); published midmonth and covers activity for the first half of the same month.
Source: National Association of Home Builders; Wells Fargo.
Revisions: Tend to be minor.”
Via Bernard Baumohl. “The Secrets of Economic Indicators”
Economic indicators on home construction have an impact on bonds. However, the NAHB’s Housing Market Index, despite its early appearance, appears to be overshadowed by other, better-known government releases on building activity. These include housing starts and new home sales, both of which are based on larger surveys. As a result, the HMI does not provoke much of a reaction in the bond market.
Money managers might review the report, but they generally do not trade based on the information.
Foreign exchange traders do not follow the NAHB release.
“As you from crimes would pardoned be,
Let your indulgence set me free.”
From The Tempest by William Shakespeare