Order of Owls

 



Domésticamente, hablando

Today in Economic News (soon to be history):

Screen Shot 2018-09-02 at 10.36.01 PM

(Source: BoAML) 


The Dollar has traded sideways for the majority of the day, currently at 95.093


Watching the US 10-Year Notes ahead of tomorrow’s NFP print at 8:30am by the BLS.  

Benchmark 10-year notes rose 2/32 in price to yield 2.897 percent, down from 2.902 percent on Wednesday.


U.S. private employers added 163,000 jobs during August, according to the ADP National Employment Report on Thursday, which came in well below expectations (200K expected from economist) at 163K. Using the ADP payroll numbers to get a read through on NFP’s hasn’t yielded the best results.


Tomorrow’s Non-Farm Payroll number is expected to print around 200K, as well. Average hourly earnings have been moving up slowly compared to the amount of people entering the force. New entrants into the job market will on average make less than their longer tenured colleagues, obviously.



The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq fell on Thursday, as internet stocks faltered for a second day on concerns about increased regulation, while Micron led a decline in chip stocks.


The S&P 500 was down -0.93 percent, at 2,874.49. 


The Nasdaq Composite was down -2.85 percent, at 7,436.03


Image result for micron technology

Micron Technology fell 7.6 percent after brokerage Baird raised concerns over prices of DRAM chips and oversupply of NAND chips.

The Philadelphia SE Semiconductor index fell 1.9 percent.


  fell 2.1 percent


declined 2.1 percent


googlelogo_color_272x92dp slipped 2 percent


5ae33c7dc10efth1 was down 2.1 percent. 

In like turn, the Global X SOCL media ETF fell with the majority of the underlying underforming today.


Back to US Economic Data:

Challenger US Job Cut Announcements Year Over Year Percent Change


US Labor Productivity Output Per Hour Nonfarm Business Sector QoQ SA


US Unit Labor Costs Nonfarm Business Sector QoQ % SAAR


Bloomberg US Weekly Consumer Comfort Index


Markit US Services PMI Business Activity SA

United States Services PMI was reported at 54.8 Index Points in Aug 2018 from 56 in the previous period


Markit US Composite PMI SA

United States Markit Composite PMI Final was reported at 54.7 in Aug from 55.7 in the previous period. It was expected at 55.0


ISM Non-Manufacturing (Services)NMI

Improves, universally, across subcomponents, sequentially and confirms the resurgent strength observed in Tuesday’s Manufacturing ISM print.

  • Current Production = +4.2pts, rebreaching the 60-level to the upside
  • New Orders = +3.4 pts, also re-breaching 60 to the upside
  • Employment = +0.6 pts to a 7-month high at 56.7… ADP was mildly underwhelming this morning but the ISM Manufacturing and Services Employment series suggest continued solidity. Coupled with further multi-decade lows in separations/jobless claims, this continues to suggest the march to labor market tautness remains ongoing as the do prospects for emergent late-cycle wage inflation.
  • Supplier Deliveries = +3pts to 56 ….  recall, a gain in the Supplier Deliveries component = slowdown in deliveries/delivery times.
  • Delivery times rising alongside increases in both Back Orders (+5pts) and New Orders suggests some measure/combination of labor scarcity and supply constraints are conspiring the dampen output capacity/growth nearer-term.

The subindex dynamics shade more toward demand driven production constraints than acute supply constraints (as existed post-hurricane, for example). In other words, demand may be outpacing productive capacity here currently… which, in isolation, would suggest increasing inflationary pressure.



US Initial Jobless Claims SA

United States Initial Jobless Claims was reported at 203K in 1/Sep from 213K in the previous period. It was expected at 214K


US Continuing Jobless Claims SA

United States Continuing Jobless Claims was reported at 1,707K in 25/Aug from 1708K in the previous period. It was expected at 1710K


 

Capitol_Prayer_Room_stained_glass_window


 

-R.W.N II

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