Personal Income and Spending
+ The core PCE price index( ex. food and energy) rose 0.08% (M/M) in November, additionally, the (Y/Y) rate increased to 1.48%.
+Core inflation was, of course, reported below the Street’s estimates, falling 3bp in financial services (+0.02%) and other services (-1.3%). The area that did see an uptick in inflation was recreational goods, reported at (+0.03%)
+ The headline PCE prices, the one most will react to, without looking under the hood, some would say, increased +0.23% (M/M) ; moreover, the (Y/Y) rate also accelerated to 1.8%. Which read through to the +4.3 jump in energy prices (M/M).
+Personal Income rose 0.3% (M/M) in November; perhaps the tax bill will continue to incentives businesses to reward their employees with bonuses, which could offset the below-consensus print. Next month’s data will be interesting to see the result of the tax bill passing.
+Nice to see that wage and salary income ticking up a hair, reported at 0.4% in November.
+ Personal Spending rose to 0.6%, which was above consensus estimates, that being said, it came at the expense of the personal savings rate to decline by three-tenths of one percent to 2.9%. Heard on Bloomberg, that this type of consumer behavior was last seen pre-GFC; so you know, heads up, watch your six.
+ Lastly, the only revisions to come in the Census sBeauru’s report was that growth in disposable personal income (DPI) was revised down one-tenth of one percent in October.
Table 1. Personal Income and Its Disposition (Months)
Table 2. Personal Income and Its Disposition (Years and Quarters) (Not Shown)
Table 5. Personal Income and Its Disposition, Percent Change from Preceding Period
Table 7. Real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) by Major Type of Product