Personal Income and Spending: ‘ad usum proprium’.

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Core PCE and Personal Spending

Takeaways

+ What a surprise this report was, the recession of the inflation data was retiringly negative on a month over month basis. Per contra, the sequential print of Core PCE was reported higher.

To wit:Core PCE Inflation (FED’s favorite) for the quarter was reported lower by a tenth of a percent to +1.3% (Q/Q), nevertheless the sequential rate fell by a mere 1bp and of course, rounded up to +1.4% (or for those of you keeping track +1.354% unrounded).

Noting for greater context, however, that estimates of the Core PCE Index rose 0.11% (M/M) in November and ytd is up 1.51%. We can concieve thus, inflation bottomed in the August 1st of 2017, at which point Core PCE was reported at 1.5%

 

Table 1. Personal Income and Its Disposition (Months)

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Table 2. Personal Income and Its Disposition (Years and Quarters) (Not Shown)

Table 5. Personal Income and Its Disposition, Percent Change from Preceding Period

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Table 7. Real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) by Major Type of Product

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Tables 9 and 11. Price Index for Personal Consumption Expenditures

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