Core PCE and Personal Spending
+ What a surprise this report was, the recession of the inflation data was retiringly negative on a month over month basis. Per contra, the sequential print of Core PCE was reported higher.
To wit:Core PCE Inflation (FED’s favorite) for the quarter was reported lower by a tenth of a percent to +1.3% (Q/Q), nevertheless the sequential rate fell by a mere 1bp and of course, rounded up to +1.4% (or for those of you keeping track +1.354% unrounded).
Noting for greater context, however, that estimates of the Core PCE Index rose 0.11% (M/M) in November and ytd is up 1.51%. We can concieve thus, inflation bottomed in the August 1st of 2017, at which point Core PCE was reported at 1.5%
Table 1. Personal Income and Its Disposition (Months)
Table 2. Personal Income and Its Disposition (Years and Quarters) (Not Shown)
Table 5. Personal Income and Its Disposition, Percent Change from Preceding Period
Table 7. Real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) by Major Type of Product
Tables 9 and 11. Price Index for Personal Consumption Expenditures