University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index. philosophum non facit barba

Review Notes

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Consumer Confidence Index 

Market Sensitivity: Medium, but can be high at turning points in the economy.

What Is It: Examines how consumers feel about jobs, the economy, and spending.

News Release on the Internet:

Home Web Address:

Release Time: 10:00 a.m. (ET); announced the last Tuesday of the month being surveyed.

Frequency: Monthly.

Source: The Conference Board.

Revisions: Minor revisions can occur as more survey results are collected.”

– Bernard Baumohl. “The Secrets of Economic Indicators


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Here is Mr. Richard Curtin on the results,


“Consumer sentiment has remained quite favorable although it continued to slowly recede in early December from its October cyclical peak. Most of the recent decline was concentrated in the long-term prospects for the economy, while consumers thought current economic conditions have continued to improve. Importantly, the largest decline in long-term economic prospects was recorded among Democrats, which reflected their concerns about the impact of the proposed changes in taxes. Perhaps the most important changes in early December were higher income expectations as well as a higher expected inflation rate in 2018. Income gains have been slowly improving during the past year, and the data indicate that trend has continued. In contrast, the rise in inflation expectations in early December was a surprise, and confidence in this finding must await confirmation in the months ahead before any inferences are drawn. Buying plans for durables have improved in early December, largely due to attractive pricing, in contrast to the rise in the expected inflation rate. Overall, the data signal an expected gain of 2.7% in real consumption expenditures in 2018.”


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