Weekly Claims for Unemployment Insurance: ‘ fortis et liber’.

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Weekly Initial Jobless Claims

Takeaways

+Inital jobless claims rose 20,000 to 240,000 for the week ending December 16th, 2017.

+ This was a higher amount of claims than was expected perhaps seasonal hires are ending early this year. More to the point, the four-week moving average of initial claims increased by 1,000 to 236,000. 

+ My favorite part of the weekly claims report is the breakdown of the states unemployment insurance claims, gets the competitive juices flowing, I’ll say. Thereby, initial claims were reported higher by 4,000 in New York, 3,000 in Pennslyvania, and 2,000 in California (where we salute those men and women who are fighting those persistent fires out west. Here here, brave men and women!)

+ lol, (but seriously a disaster, nonetheless). Initial claims are continuing to trickle in from Puerto Rico, which reported a decrease this week by 1,000, though still holding strong at elevated levels. Can we send these people some help? Do they have electricity or an operational sewage system, yet? Is the Peace Core still accepting applications for those who haven’t found there way in life yet? I digress.

+ Continuing claims, which are (always good to remind thyself) -the number of persons receiving benefits through standard government programs- was reported to have increased by 43,000 to 1,932,000 (Tis the season for giving).

+ Lastly, the insured unemployment rate rebounded to 1.4%. Which begs the question of, have we reached the threshold for full employment?

To wit:

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Previous Weeks Unemployment Claims Report.

Weekly Claims for Unemployment Insurance

Market Sensitivity: High.

What Is It: Tracks new filings for unemployment insurance benefits.”

Most Current News Release on the Internet:www.ows.doleta.gov/unemploy/claims_arch.asp

Home Web Address:www.ows.doleta.gov

Release Time: 8:30 a.m. (ET) every Thursday; covers the week ending the previous Saturday.

Frequency: Weekly.

Source: Employment and Training Administration, Department of Labor.

Revisions: Minor changes

Bernard Baumohl. The Secrets of Economic Indicators

 

Market Impact
Bonds

The fixed-income market reacts favorably when the number of new filings for unemployment insurance picks up, especially if it jumps by more than 30,000 applications. A rise in first-time claims points to a weaker economy and diminishing inflation pressures. What unnerves bond investors is a continuous drop in claims, because it hints at a sturdier economic climate ahead. That can prompt fresh concerns about future inflation and lead to lower bond prices and rising yields.

Stocks

Equities tend to fare badly when there’s a persistent increase in jobless claims. Though such a report would lower interest rates, which is normally a positive for stocks, evidence of a serious deterioration in the labor market augurs poorly for the economy, corporate profits, and share prices.

Dollar

Falling interest rates make the dollar less attractive to hold, especially if yields are higher in other countries. Thus, a steady climb in initial claims that stems from a languishing domestic economy might turn foreign investors away from U.S. securities and thereby weaken the dollar’s value in foreign exchange markets.”

 

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-R.W.N II

 

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